Italy neutral in WW1 and then ?

Anderman

Donor
Lets assume that Italy stays neutral in WW1 is there any chance that Mussolini and or a fascist party comes to power ?
 

Delvestius

Banned
I would argue no.. The reason Mussolini rose to power is because Italy was bankrupt after the war, and the allies kind of screwed them when it game to spoils (specifically, Albania and certain pacific islands were not ceded to them). If they remained neutral, both of these would have been avoided. This is very interesting, it could butterfly away National Socialism in Germany and lead to a communist state there!
 
On this topic, I have one question for more experienced AHers, how important was Italy's participation in WWI, and in particular, how much did it affect AH?
 
In a word no.
Fascism was a son of the war,and of disorders caused by war.

It's more correct say that all the growing popularity of the fascism was the son of the war, as fascism (at least at prototype stage) already existed. With Italy neutral the Giolittian liberal democracy who was at the end of his life will face both socialist and proto-fascist, but this time the goverment had more capacity to put down the opposition (who will not in OTL shape but with a lot less resource and credibility). In the end after some years of an authoritarian democracy with the Presidente del consiglio nominated direct by the king things will go back to normal


Very little.
Italy was not determinant.

I disagree, without Italy in the game the austrian don't have a front, freeing hundred of thousand of men, not counting that the Otranto Barrage now is a little more difficult to create and the A-H navy has the possibility to get of the adriatic. On the Balkans without Italy the operations to save the Serbian Army are a lot more difficult and probably doom to fail not counting the absence of italian troops and the allied side in this front.
Other little problems are that now the France/Italy border must still be guarded and the troops who in OTL were reacalled on the front now must stay there and the CP have someone who commerce with them lessening the hardship of the embargo.
 
Spain was neutral and became fascist, many South-American countries were rather fascist even though they never experienced major involvement in the war.

I fully agree that the war was extremely important in fascist success in Italy and the way fascism was implemented there, but I don't think it was a necessary condition.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I would argue no.. The reason Mussolini rose to power is because Italy was bankrupt after the war, and the allies kind of screwed them when it game to spoils (specifically, Albania and certain pacific islands were not ceded to them). If they remained neutral, both of these would have been avoided. This is very interesting, it could butterfly away National Socialism in Germany and lead to a communist state there!

Also an additional "fair" amount of German Colonies in Africa and parts of modern Croatia.

On this topic, I have one question for more experienced AHers, how important was Italy's participation in WWI, and in particular, how much did it affect AH?

As previous contributor pointed out, Italy was not that good on the battle field, but for more indirect reasons an true Neutral Italy helps the CP in huge ways, potentially a war winner.

1) Italy was importing and reselling at a profit of up to 6 to 1 critical goods to Germany. Additional Italian ports and the Entente fleets being spread out more means a better supply situation for the CP.

2) Italy help keep the A-H fleet tied up along with other Entente using its ports. The A-H fleet and attached submarines have the potential of being more effective in the 1915-1917 period.

3) Italy kept several A-H armies on the front, inflicted casualties, and consumed ammo. Before mid-1915, the time line would go much the same, but after A-H would have at least one more field army to use, likely against Russia.

4) Brusilov - A-H pulled troops from the Polish area for the 1916 offensive in Italy. Brusilov attacked into this area, and won a major victory, and it is likely in an ATL he repeats the move because it is the most logical place to attack A-H due to terrain. The Russians will hit experience troops with much more ample reserves of men and material. The Russians likely take high casualties for a very modest gain. Without Brusilov, Romania may well not enter the war.

So directly, Italy did not win the war. But with Italy in the war, the CP have more resources and generally stay on the initiative after 1915.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Spain was neutral and became fascist
No it did not. Franco's Spain was a Catholic authoritarian state; the Falange had lost most of its influence and its leader had been reduced to a decorative piece of Franco's entourage by 1943.
many South-American countries were rather fascist even though they never experienced major involvement in the war.
Which countries and what do you mean by "rather fascist"? A few colonels musing over Hitler and Scotch in the smoky halls of the Officer's Club does not a fascism make.
I fully agree that the war was extremely important in fascist success in Italy and the way fascism was implemented there, but I don't think it was a necessary condition.
The war was instrumental because it decided which side would be defeated and which would be triumphant. France was the most likely to go fascist/right-authoritarian by any metric, yet the triumph of the War allowed the Third Republic to get a second wind and preserve its liberal democracy.

Italian Fascism gained traction because the Italians felt cheated out of land that they had been explicitly promised in WWI by the West. National Socialism gained votes by shrieking about Versailles and the "humiliations" heaped upon Germany (Versailles was nothing compared to Brest-Litovsk or what the CPs forced on Romania) and the "treachery" of Jews and Socialists and pacifists and yadda yadda yadda.

The War was instrumental because it decided which way the Winds were going to blow.
 
Also, the Italian Popular Party (future Christian Democrats), and the Socialists, both parties which were by and large pro-neutral, would have seen their policies vindicated. By this I mean that the Italian electorate would have realized that they helped hundreds of thousands of Italian men avoid death, injury etc by keeping Italy out of the war.
As the horrors of that war sunk in over time, more and more Italians would have supported those parties which helped keep Italy out of war. End result, a stronger, less discredited Popular Party, and a Socialist Party less vulnerable to attacks from the left. With a smaller Communist Party, and less post war disillusionment, less room for Fascism to grow.
Also, with a vindicated Socialist Party, does Mussolini attempt a comeback as a repentant Socialist?
 
Also, the Italian Popular Party (future Christian Democrats), and the Socialists, both parties which were by and large pro-neutral, would have seen their policies vindicated. By this I mean that the Italian electorate would have realized that they helped hundreds of thousands of Italian men avoid death, injury etc by keeping Italy out of the war.
As the horrors of that war sunk in over time, more and more Italians would have supported those parties which helped keep Italy out of war. End result, a stronger, less discredited Popular Party, and a Socialist Party less vulnerable to attacks from the left. With a smaller Communist Party, and less post war disillusionment, less room for Fascism to grow.
Also, with a vindicated Socialist Party, does Mussolini attempt a comeback as a repentant Socialist?



I don’t know Italian history much but surely the Italian Popular Party was vindicated by OTL. If Italy never entered the war its people could never know how badly it went.

e.g “if we had been in the war we would of got land in Versailles Treaty”

(not saying your wrong)
 

Cook

Banned
The question is why does Italy not enter the war? Does Mussolini even leave the Socialist Party?
 
The question is why does Italy not enter the war? Does Mussolini even leave the Socialist Party?

1) Negociations about spoils of war. If the Entente promised that much to Italy, it was because italians refused to go in war except for a very good loot and many territories.

Let's imagine the Entente send a more honest diplomatic squad, and Italy could stay neutral.

2) Mussolini would likely stay in the socialist Party. If Red October still happen, he could enter into the PCI for a moment, but would likely quit it when "bolschevisation" of european parties occurs.

Then he could launch a "average way" between PCI and PSI, like the french POP, and finally join back the PSI within a nationalistic tendency.
 

elkarlo

Banned
I would argue no.. The reason Mussolini rose to power is because Italy was bankrupt after the war, and the allies kind of screwed them when it game to spoils (specifically, Albania and certain pacific islands were not ceded to them). If they remained neutral, both of these would have been avoided. This is very interesting, it could butterfly away National Socialism in Germany and lead to a communist state there!


This, plus they still were not in control of most of Libya. As of 1915, they only control of the major cities, and that was it. I think they were hurting cash wise from the war over Libya, before they even entered WWI.

I think Mussolini, outside of the military and political problems, he came to power as everything was a mess after the war.

Yeah, with nothing to show as an example, save fr the military governors in WWI Germany, Hitler may have gone commie. πrolly be like Mao, making it a German styled communism.
 
No Italy in the war mean a very likely CP victory just not immediate 16/17, with a strong probabily of a B-L type of treaty with Russia and in the western an agreed cease fire with some term (like German get est-europe plus luxemburg and some influence in Belgium but lost all colonies) seeing more in detail:

USA: with Germany in a more favorable position and with a more stable method to lessen the blockade (Italy), there is a lot less need of issue the order of unrestricted submarine warfare and to sent the Zimmerman telegram so WW will not have any possibility to enter directely the war. The liberticide set of law will be avoided and we get an USA where the socialist party and the German culture is still existent. Wilson can try to play the peacemaker during the negotiation but here is idea will probably discarted immediately.
Russia: Lenin is probably butterflied away but a Brest-Litovosk like treaty no (almost certain something of less crippling but not that much). In the long term Russia will probably be a Weimar Republic analogue for economic and political stability, strong possibility of a dictatorship.
A-H: one of the big loser even in case of CP victory, is time is come and the fact is exacerbated by a clueless and fearfull leadership and naturally by all the death, debit and the crippled economy due to the war. When the renegotiation with Hungary is due nothing short of a miracle can save the empire, Germany can prop them for a time but she has her problem and the new east europe nation to save, so after a while Berlin will left his ally alone. How things go is really nebulos, can be a pacific break up like the OTL URSS or a full fledged civil war; Romania and Italy will surely jump at the occasion to get some land at the Hasburg expense, Germany will go to reluctantely absorb the German land of the Empire (included the Czech) and to get control of the successor nations like Croatia and Slovakia. Hungary can really descend in a civil war after the break up due to the influx of communist ideology, the strife of war and a leadership just out of feudalism.
Serbia and Montenegro: can try to recover what lost in the war plus some other bits of territory and throw out the puppet leader the victorious CP put in charge.
UK: get a white peace as the German can't do very much to enforce harsh terms, political unrest is in the future when the cost of the lost war (monetary and human) will be fully understand.
France: some serius civil and political problem in the future, fascism will probably arise here and will try the revanchist way.
Germany: lost colonies, get east-europe and must prop that goverment for a while, some political unrest at home due to the fact that the time of the kaiser as political ruler si over and a serious reform is unavoidable.
Italy and Romania: stay neutral and contrary to the common sense of the time they greatly beneficied from that, by commercing with the CP and by getting territory from the corpse of A-H when she implode. Italy here has time and resource to take full control of Lybia by the time of the end of the war.
 
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If the entente wins, then Italy might still gain land (see Denmark in our timeline) but it will gain less than in our timeline. Südtirol, for example, all but certainly remains Austrian while Trentio likely still goes to Italy. What this means for Istria, Gorizia, and Trieste will be interesting.
 
A neutral Italy throughout the war means interesting things for the Italian economy.

Presumably Italy becomes a major leak in the blockade of the CP, but the country was rather dependent on foreign sources of coal and oil, so presumably doesn't push that too far. On the other hand, trade with the Entente is unrestricted by blockade, and war demands are an excellent chance for Italian industries to make some money. Another consideration might be that Italians might be hired as a migrant or guest labor force in France in some number for civilian industries, agriculture and so on.

The Entente ultimately has more financial and economic power than the CP, so I'd guess Italy ends up increasingly integrated into the Entente war economy in a similar way as the US. In the end, Italy might have so many economic links to France and Britain that a CP victory could be quite costly.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
A neutral Italy throughout the war means interesting things for the Italian economy.

Presumably Italy becomes a major leak in the blockade of the CP, but the country was rather dependent on foreign sources of coal and oil, so presumably doesn't push that too far. On the other hand, trade with the Entente is unrestricted by blockade, and war demands are an excellent chance for Italian industries to make some money. Another consideration might be that Italians might be hired as a migrant or guest labor force in France in some number for civilian industries, agriculture and so on.

The Entente ultimately has more financial and economic power than the CP, so I'd guess Italy ends up increasingly integrated into the Entente war economy in a similar way as the US. In the end, Italy might have so many economic links to France and Britain that a CP victory could be quite costly.

Profit margins on metal products to Germany was up to 6 to 1, so I see both blockade running and a large Italian arms industry forming. At these level of profits, one can afford to bring items in by camel across the Sahara to Libya by ship to Italy. Also, the Italian fleet entering the war does cause issues for the British, so the British would have to be real careful with the pressure they applied. Another item the British would have to watch is the rest of the world to Western Spain by rail to Eastern Spain to Italy by ship. Britain was not blockading the coast of Spain, so there is a lot more sea area to cover which means a leakier blockade.
 

Flubber

Banned
At these level of profits, one can afford to bring items in by camel across the Sahara to Libya by ship to Italy.


Good sweet Christ... Did you even bother to examine the numbers involved or did you just type up whatever "idea" popped into your head? :confused:

A camel can carry about 450 lbs and a WW1-era merchant ship lifted about 8,000 tons. That means you'd need something over 35 THOUSAND camels to move the contents of ONE merchant ship across the Sahara.

Do I even need to mention how much fodder, water, and drivers that many camels would require?
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
1) Negociations about spoils of war. If the Entente promised that much to Italy, it was because italians refused to go in war except for a very good loot and many territories.

Let's imagine the Entente send a more honest diplomatic squad, and Italy could stay neutral.

2) Mussolini would likely stay in the socialist Party. If Red October still happen, he could enter into the PCI for a moment, but would likely quit it when "bolschevisation" of european parties occurs.

Then he could launch a "average way" between PCI and PSI, like the french POP, and finally join back the PSI within a nationalistic tendency.
Could we see a National Syndicalist Party?:D
 
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