Italy loses against OE in 1911

  • Thread starter Deleted member 14881
  • Start date
Well this could really completely alter European History in the 20th century, and IIRC it's fairly plausible. In OTL the Italian invasion of Libya was poorly planned and executed and the Ottomans very nearly won due to the resistance of the Libyan people. Let's say a few more things go their way and the Italians suffer some major defeats in Libya. The Ottomans couldn't defeat them navally but the victories on Land should make the interventionist faction in Italy very unpopular and secure a peace status quo ante bellum sometime in 1911/12.

Now this is where everything goes squirrelly. In OTL the Italian Victory over the Ottomans was a major factor in inciting the Balkan nations to take advantage of the Ottoman Empire's weakness, form the Balkan League, and begin the Balkan Wars. In TTL they might not do that with the Ottomans still appearing to be a formidable foe. Without the Balkan Wars, you have a drastically different version of World War I.
 
So do the Italians learn any thing from this, Major reform of the Military?, Changes in Politics?, more investment in Infrastructure?, Industrialization?.
?Does this make Italy More or Less likely to enter WW 1?
 
An Ottoman victory in Libya would essentially butterfly away WWI as we know it. No Balkan states taking advantage of Ottoman weakness (though it still is the sick man of Europe), so no Balkan Wars, and Bismarck's prediction won't likely come true.

And Franz Ferdinand might not be assassinated.
 
THE Great War buterflied away, but...

The great war, and the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, are most likely butterflied away--but Europe is still a powderkeg with an abundance of fuses. Only one has to burn down for an explosion--though it reach bad powder.

IMVHO, some sort of alliance-testing is very likely simply because most minor wars can explode--and something will set it off. But, strange things happen...
 
An Ottoman victory in Libya would essentially butterfly away WWI as we know it. No Balkan states taking advantage of Ottoman weakness (though it still is the sick man of Europe), so no Balkan Wars, and Bismarck's prediction won't likely come true.

And Franz Ferdinand might not be assassinated.

Franz wouldn't be assassinated, but the Great War is going to happen eventually, though later. With Germany establishing greater and greater ties with the Ottomans, and the eventual discovery of oil in the region, that could serve to be the spark to set the war going. Maybe with the influx of cash from oil used to buy German arms, the Ottomans decide to "reclaim" lost territory.

Now with Franz surviving you could see a reformed Austro-Hungarian Empire due to his desire to make it a truly federal union, though how well that would work out is the question.

As for Italy, that nation never learned from its mistakes militarily. That can be blamed solely on the officer corps that refused to change.
 
I think it's still Possible for a Balkans war to Pop up, Depending on how Badly Italy loses.

If it's a Close call, then they might try their luck.
if it's a Decisive lose, then they probably won't.
 
I don't think a Ottoman victory is possible, or at least a total Italian defeat. The Italians have pretty much uncontested control of the seas in this conflict. Libya is cut off from the OE and can not be readily reinforced. I would consider that the Italians may seize and take major coastal ports and cities while surrendering the interior to Ottoman forces, which is probably what happened historically.

What one would hope for is a drawn out occupation that would find the Italian armed forces already occupied to do much besides continue neutrality in 1914.
 

Art

Monthly Donor
The Ottoman fleet in 1910...

Hardly Exists! It's so small as to be nonexistent! 2 pre-dreadnoughts, no DNs, no modern heavy cruisers, old escorts... And no nearby bases. The resistance was mostly by native Libyans, if I recall. There's a great movie about the guerilla war they waged against Italy into the 1930s, with Anthony Quinn, called LIon of the Desert. He plays the leader Omar Muktar, who was executed by the fascists. Made me ashamed of being of Italian heritage.
 
Top