Italy Joins the CP; Loses

[ZachScape]

Many of us speculate on this board if the Central Powers could win or not with Italy. We consider an earlier fall of Russia, a later if any entrance of the United States, and a later if any surrender of Austria Hungary. But what if the Central Powers still lose?

What would the peace settlement of Italy be after their surrender; assuming their surrender is much like Germany's IOTL?

 

[Whanztastic]

Italian North Africa is divided: Cyrenaica goes to the UK and Tripolitania (incl. Fezzan) goes to France.

Italian Somaliland probably goes to the UK, Eritrea could go to either the UK or France.

Dodecanese go to Greece.

More of Istria goes to Yugoslavia, possibly loosing Trieste.

The Aosta Valley could go to France.

Alto Adige/Sudtirol could be partly annexed into Austria.


There is also the possibilities of treaties dividing Italy further, be it clipping off Sardinia or Sicily or something of the sort, or simply due to secession/internal unrest.

 

[Zimmerwald1915]

Amadeo Bordiga is a much more well-known figure by ATL's 2010.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Many of us speculate on this board if the Central Powers could win or not with Italy. We consider an earlier fall of Russia, a later if any entrance of the United States, and a later if any surrender of Austria Hungary. But what if the Central Powers still lose?

What would the peace settlement of Italy be after their surrender; assuming their surrender is much like Germany's IOTL?

The problems with a Central Power Italy scenario is that Italy would not fight for the Central Powers if Austria didn't secede some territory to them (Trent, Trieste, Gorizia, perhaps South Tirol, but Austria would never give it away), which Austria wasn't inclined to do.

 

[Eurofed]

The problems with a Central Power Italy scenario is that Italy would not fight for the Central Powers if Austria didn't secede some territory to them (Trent, Trieste, Gorizia, perhaps South Tirol, but Austria would never give it away), which Austria wasn't inclined to do.

There are two typical well-known PoDs for CP Italy. One is Germany guarantees Italian claims against France at the peace table and successfully pressures Austria to cede at least Trento and Gorizia (maybe even an exclave in western Istria) to Italy, which it may well do, since neither territory is strategically or economically really important for Austria. Cession of Trieste is not necessary to make Italy fight for the CPs. The other is Russia and France declaring war first, because Germany adopts a Russia First strategy, which much more strongly binds Italy to the Triple Alliance pact, and Germany guarantees Italy its French claims at the peace table.

Anyway, concerning the original question,

Italian North Africa is divided: Cyrenaica goes to the UK and Tripolitania (incl. Fezzan) goes to France.

Italian Somaliland probably goes to the UK, Eritrea could go to either the UK or France.

Dodecanese go to Greece.

This is all very likely.

More of Istria goes to Yugoslavia, possibly loosing Trieste.

Yup. Probably we can expect an Italo-Yugoslav much akin to the OTL 1947 one.

The Aosta Valley could go to France.

Well, we may reasonably expect France to gain Briga and Tenda like it did in OTL 1947. France could theoretically annex more, the Aosta Valley as you said, but then it is getting its own way at the peace table and is also getting more territory form Germany than it did IOTL, at least annexing Saar if not setting up Rhineland as a puppet state.

Alto Adige/Sudtirol could be partly annexed into Austria.

Probably. Austria would look less dangerous than Italy.

There is also the possibilities of treaties dividing Italy further, be it clipping off Sardinia or Sicily or something of the sort, or simply due to secession/internal unrest.

Well, if it wants, France can of course annex Sardinia. If it is getting that much leeway at the peace table, it is also annexing Rhineland. I can't see any Entente power that would be interested into annexing Sicily.

Because make it no mistake, despite what some AH.com folks may think , Italian and German national unifications were not artificial frail constructions ready to be undone at the first serious setback the nation suffered. Any fully Italian (or German) territory the Entente nations detach shall only go if forced by Entente bayonets and shall remain an irredentist hobed in the interwar period.

 

[lounge60]

Is less or more the same that after WW-II.
Italy lost his colonies,and Trieste become Yougoslave for sure.
Italy much probably become a Republic.
Now if we have a good Constitution a reform of electoral system,and a good influential government (Giolitti prime minister,for exemple) is possible that Italy remains a democracy.
If no,we have disorders in 1919-21 and Mussolini take the power in 22,but without the balance of the Monarchy.
Possible also a Nationalist coup,with Federzoni that recall the King.
My opinion is that with Giolitti is more probable the first,better, scenario.