Italy invades Yugoslavia instead of Greece

Say Italy invade Yugoslavia instead of Greece with Hungary and Bulgaria joining

Would Italy be able to conquer Yugoslavia without Germany support
 
Say Italy invade Yugoslavia instead of Greece with Hungary and Bulgaria joining

Would Italy be able to conquer Yugoslavia without Germany support
With any degree of proper preparation? Yes. The Royal Yugoslavian army isn't fit to fight any one of those countries, let alone all three.

With the same poorly prepared force it tried to invade Greece with? Probably, but it certainly won't be the Italians making the glorious breakthrough and the Yugoslavians might score some wins here and there a-la WWI.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
IIRC this is what the Italian military was geared up to do. A invasion of Yugoslavia has multiple advantages over the invasion of Greece.

  • There are two landroutes for the Italian Army into Yugoslavia. From Albania in the south and into Slovenia in the north. There was only one avenue of attack against Greece.
  • The attack from the north will be directly from Italy easing logistics.
  • The Adriatic was a Italian lake so the Italian navy had supremacy while it couldn't use that against Greece because of the Royal Navy.
  • Because of that naval supremacy amphibious attack is a possibility.
  • Yugoslavia was a pretty divided country. It also had a Italian minority on the coast.
  • As RL showed the neighbours of Yugoslavia were very enthusiastic about getting a piece of the pie.
Because of this I have no doubt that a Italian invasion of Yugoslavia would be successful. Of course it wouldn't be the walkover of OTL but I can't see how Yugoslavia could defend against attacks from all sides without support from the Allies which wouldn't be coming.
 
There are two landroutes for the Italian Army into Yugoslavia. From Albania in the south and into Slovenia in the north. There was only one avenue of attack against Greece.
Don't forget about Zara, some harassing actions followed by protracted resistance could be launched from it.

Yugoslavia was a pretty divided country. It also had a Italian minority on the coast.
Italy's contacts with Croatian nationalists are also stronger than Germany's were, and they could also play up the fact that the Queen of Italy was Montenegrin Royalty to foster division amongst the Serbs.
 

Deleted member 1487

Say Italy invade Yugoslavia instead of Greece with Hungary and Bulgaria joining

Would Italy be able to conquer Yugoslavia without Germany support
They actually wanted to, but Germany was not in favor, so Mussolini backed off.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy–Yugoslavia_relations
In the last two years before the start of World War II, Italy almost broke off diplomatic contact with Yugoslavia and started negotiations with Germany and the Ustaše. Italy recalled General Gambara from Spain in 1940 so that he could take control of forces which would attack Banovina of Croatia (a Yugoslav province).[5] This offensive was only delayed because of the Italian declaration of war against France on 10 June 1940. Italy created plans of attack on Yugoslavia in February 1940 with the primary objective of taking Šibenik, Split and Kotor so that the Adriatic situation would be eased. The only problem with this plan was that Hitler wanted to create an alliance between the two kingdoms against Greece. During negotiations in late 1940, Italy offered Thessaloniki to Yugoslavia but it was rejected. Only when Hitler put forward a similar offer in March 1941 was it accepted, and Yugoslavia become a member of the Axis powers on 25 March 1941. Hitler ordered an attack on Yugoslavia following the coup d'état on 27 March; two days later the new Yugoslav prime minister, Dušan Simović, asked for Italian help in restoring relations with Germany. Simović warned Italy that Yugoslavia would overrun Italian Albania if the Axis powers declared war.[6] This war would start on 6 April 1941 and end with the destruction of the Yugoslav Kingdom on 17 April.

To do this Italy would basically have to opt out of WW2 and an alliance with Hitler...which might create some problems.
 
To do this Italy would basically have to opt out of WW2 and an alliance with Hitler...which might create some problems.
Well not piling up bodies on France's door step and being able to recall forces from North Africa would tilt the balance in even more in Italy's favour, but then I suppose the question is then what Hitler will do in response. He doesn't even necessarily have to do much to draw out that conflict, simply encouraging Slovakian and Romanian aggression could take the wind out of the sails of Hungary and Bulgaria.
 
Wouldn't Hitler view a Italian-Yugoslav war as a distraction and leave Mussolini alone? His goal was to exterminate the Soviet Union not get bogged down in a Balkan War.
 

Deleted member 1487

Wouldn't Hitler view a Italian-Yugoslav war as a distraction and leave Mussolini alone? His goal was to exterminate the Soviet Union not get bogged down in a Balkan War.
Not really given the huge economic interests that Germany had in Yugoslavia. They spent a lot effort courting Yugoslavia into the Axis for a reason; it might well provoke a war between Germany and Italy if Mussolini invades Yugoslavia and seizes it's resources given how much it would negatively impact the German war economy if Italy disrupts shipments of goods.
https://books.google.com/books?id=n...jAE#v=onepage&q=german-yugoslav trade&f=false

https://www.jstor.org/stable/25642768?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
 
Taking the wider view forwards. This would likely have Italy leave France and Britain alone and look to the Balkans. If they can retain relations with Germany then Germany has their 1940 conquests shielded by neutral buffers in Spain, Italy/Romania/Bulgaria and Sweden/Finland.

It leaves Britain with limited places to pursue any land strategy unless it decides to declare war on Italy either unilaterally or via some treaty with a Balkan country threatened by Italy and Greece is the only accessible one. Turkey is unlikely to acquiesce to British forces transiting the Bosphorus to Bulgaria or Romania both of whom are more candidates for joining the carve up of Yugoslavia.

Essentially Germany then has a free hand to enact Barbarossa at their chosen time with their chosen forces.

If Britain declared war on an Italy committed to a Balkan invasion then they are likely to be able to seize North Africa although this might cause the French to side with Italy against Britain to retain French North Africa. The war would then devolve into two wars. Germany v Soviet Union and Britain v France and Italy. All the Germans have to do with Britain is to ignore it until the Soviet Union has been dealt with.
 
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