Italy invades Corsica 1871

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Given the whole nationalism thing and the nature of Corsica as an Italian-speaking place, I'm not sure the economic value of the island plays into the decision.

I would rather say that the benefits from an annexation of Corsica would be very small, if not negative: no prospect for colonization, no production of anything worth. Corsica is a lovely island for a holiday, but in 1870 that would not have been an issue

Frankly, I could possibly imagine an Italy trying to get back Nice and Savoy (Savoy was the original seat of the dinasty, and the county of Nice became Savoyard in 1388: in both cases, the historical ties were much stronger); however, you should not forget that the public opinion was mostly in favor of France. Actually, Garibaldi participated in the Franco-prussian war commanding an irregular corp (Italian legion)

 

[LordKalvan]

Given the whole nationalism thing and the nature of Corsica as an Italian-speaking place, I'm not sure the economic value of the island plays into the decision.

True, nationalism is never fully rational (it would be rationalism, wouldn't it? ).
OTOH, Italy had just got Rome; public opinion was pro-French; and the sentiment was that war against France would be a betrayal of the ally of 1859. Given all of this, and remembering that in any case Corsica was never in the first places of the Italian nationalistic agenda, I would assign extremely low probability to this POD.

 

[Grey Wolf]

True, nationalism is never fully rational (it would be rationalism, wouldn't it? ).
OTOH, Italy had just got Rome; public opinion was pro-French; and the sentiment was that war against France would be a betrayal of the ally of 1859. Given all of this, and remembering that in any case Corsica was never in the first places of the Italian nationalistic agenda, I would assign extremely low probability to this POD.

Which of course is why it didn't happen in reality, and why its a POD

Grey Wolf

 

[LordKalvan]

Which of course is why it didn't happen in reality, and why its a POD

Grey Wolf

Yes, but in the cathegory of POD's, it would still be a low probability case.
It would make sense that Italy tries to make the most out of French weakness; OTOH, it must be careful not to get into too big a mess: the occupation of Rome was negotiated with A/H.
I'd think that Italy would need a green light at least by UK (if not by A/H too) if they want to carve a piece of France (say, during the Commune period): in such a case, they would go for Nice and Savoy (and possibly Corsica, but just as an afterthought).
The other possible case would be an alliance with Prussia since the beginning: but Bismarck was not in favor (nor the General Staff), and the french strength was quite overestimated by Italy.

 

[Tyr]

Italy has no chance of invading and conquering Corsica, they may be able to manage getting a small amount of people in to lead a uprising if the Corsicans are supportive.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Italy has no chance of invading and conquering Corsica, they may be able to manage getting a small amount of people in to lead a uprising if the Corsicans are supportive.

Why do you say this ? What facts do you base this on ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

Italy has no chance of invading and conquering Corsica, they may be able to manage getting a small amount of people in to lead a uprising if the Corsicans are supportive.

That would normally be the case, but in 1871 France is in chaos following the disastrous war with Prussia - I'm not sure they could get their act together to repel a quick seizure of the island.

It would be much harder to hold onto it long-term, however...

 

[unsunghero]

What if Italy decides to jump into the Franco - Prussian war on the side of Prussia? There would be a historical precedent, as the Italians jumped into the Austro - Prussian war of 1866. They LOST when the Austrians beat them badly, but they still got Venetia because Prussia WON at Koeniggratz, and it was Prussia who dictated the terms of settlement. In this case (1871) the Italians would not really fare any better, but since Prussia is going to win, the Italians will get it. They might even get Nice/Savoy, etc., but that would be a stretch - probably they will have to decide which they want more.

After the 1871 war, Italy will be tied in quite strongly with Germany as an ally, because the French will have a serious revenge complex against the Italians every bit as strong as with the Germans. In this case, the Italians will not be likely successful in pursuing a policy of neutrality inthe Great War - the French will be eager for another go - around, and the Germans will be pressing hard for them to honour their treaty obligations. Since the Italians really owe the Germans big time, they probably will declare war. In the pre - war period, I would guess that Italy will have directed its naval ambitions against the French as opposed to the Austrians, more out of national defense than aggression. I expect that the Italians would make one or two attempts at an invasion (probably Marseilles) which would be neatly checked, and then force them onto the defensive for the remainder of the war. It would be a complete reversal of the 'Eleven Battles of the Isonzo.' Austria would fare better against Russia w/out the Italians intervening, and I doubt Rumania would declare war on the Central Powers.

 

[Tyr]

France was getting its butt kicked by Prussia up north however the navy in the mediterranian had little to do with this. They would hear Corsica is being invaded and head out to sink the Italian navy.

Also the British might need considering- if Italy is on the prowl for everything remotely Italian, after Corsica Malta would be next.

For what facts I base it on, Italy had just became a country not that long before and only had a few ships of any worth whilst France had the second biggest navy in the world.

 

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

France was getting its butt kicked by Prussia up north however the navy in the mediterranian had little to do with this. They would hear Corsica is being invaded and head out to sink the Italian navy.

Also the British might need considering- if Italy is on the prowl for everything remotely Italian, after Corsica Malta would be next.

For what facts I base it on, Italy had just became a country not that long before and only had a few ships of any worth whilst France had the second biggest navy in the world.

After the Franco-Prussian War France was in chaos. Whether or not she could rally her navy is an open quetion - it is not even clear who controlled the navy or if it was even a united force.

Corsica is only a couple of hours from Italian ports - the French fleet does not form a wagon ring around the island. A quick landing would not require large naval support or naval supremacy.

For example, in the Greco-Ottoman War of 1897, Crete was blockaded by ALL the powers, yet the Greeks still managed to land troops on the island.

 

[Susano]

Leej, have you read the trhead at all? Wolf explained that most navy soldiers were busy fighting on land defending Paris, so how do you want to man the French Navy?