Italy in the CP:CP defeat....

Rockingham

Banned
We see a lot of TL's or what if's positing the terms if Italy were to join the CP, and the CP emerged victorious....

So WI Italy was to join the CP in declaring war on the allies, and the CP was still defeated as in our TL, with Russia collapsed and the US a member of the allies....

What peace terms would Italy face? Might it lose the Francophone Aosta valley to France? Would it gain any of the Italian speaking territories of the former AH empire, assuming AH collpases as per OTL?
 
Its colonies would be divided up between Britain and France, that's for sure...

France gets Tripolitania and the Fezzan. (Maybe a bit of Eritrea?) Britain gets the Italian Somaliland (added to the British one) and the rest of Eritrea added to the Sudan...

Maybe an allied Ethiopia, to grab a port? :confused:
 
Italy's long coast is vulnerable to the Royal Navy ships in the Mediterranean and the west is open to a French invasion, unless the Germans manage to tie enough allied troops on the Somme. If the CP are defeated, I expect Italy to fall first. Before the Ottomans and probably even before Bulgaria, too. The Savoias would be surely overthrown and, being so unpopular the alliance with Austria-Hungary*, it's not entirely impossible to see the new republican (or even socialist) Italian government changing sides and still opening the third front in the Veneto.

In that scenario, though, Italy is going to lose the colonies and perhaps something more anyway, and if there are gains they are going to be minimal. The frontiers drawn at *Versailles will be based purely on idiomatic differences, so Republican Italy will still gain Trento and Trieste, but not South Tirol (which wil remain Austrian) nor Istria (which will go to the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes).

France and Britain would divide Eritrea and Somalia between them, but I don't know what could take each one. There would be a redrawn of the Franco-Italian border giving some strategic points in the Alps to France. I have also the pet idea (don't know if this is feasible) that Sardinia could end up as a League of Nations Mandate under Franco-British occupation and ultimately would end as an independent republic. The Italian fleet, if not already destroyed in the war, would be largely dismantled.

Finally, I expect the new Italian state to be very unstable and lead to the raising of something like Mussolini sooner or later, but without the popularity this enjoyed in the 20s and early 30s. The Empire of Ethiopia and the Kingdom of Albania would still be independent nations when WW2 breaks out, if it still does.

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*It was Umberto I who signed this alliance which, combined with his imperialist ambitions in East Africa that lead to the disastrous battle of Adwa, mined his popularity and probably bought the bullet that killed him in 1900. Umberto not being killed and still reigining in 1914 could be a decent POD for this TL.
 
In that scenario, though, Italy is going to lose the colonies and perhaps something more anyway, and if there are gains they are going to be minimal. The frontiers drawn at *Versailles will be based purely on idiomatic differences, so Republican Italy will still gain Trento and Trieste, but not South Tirol (which wil remain Austrian) nor Istria (which will go to the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes).

France and Britain would divide Eritrea and Somalia between them, but I don't know what could take each one.

Well, the British forces in Kenya, the British Somaliland and Aden etc would be able to capture the Italian Somaliland.

The British in the Sudan and the French in the French Somaliland could grab Eritrea, but I still think that Ethiopia will try to grab something...

The French forces in the Med could capture Libya, allong with the British in Eygpt.

I think that the Allies could capture Italian East Africa quite quickly... not sure about Libya, though, since Italy could reinforce it...

There would be a redrawn of the Franco-Italian border giving some strategic points in the Alps to France. I have also the pet idea (don't know if this is feasible) that Sardinia could end up as a League of Nations Mandate under Franco-British occupation and ultimately would end as an independent republic.

Possibly...

There might even be an Italian Civil War, with several areas declaring independece...
 

Rockingham

Banned
Important thing to remember....Italian control in Libya outside important ports was minimal at that point. They were still struggling with the rebels. So the French and British in all likelihood would be backed by said rebels and sweep up Libya quite quickly.
 
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