Italy in the Central Powers

[Grey Wolf]

I reckonits best to use the Italian fleet against assets rather than against territory - attack the transports, bombard the N African ports, try to sweep French coastal traffic out of the Eastern Gulf of Lyon etc

The real question comes when the French fleet forces the Italians to give battle, or vice versa - who is the best ?

Could Goeben on her own turn the tide ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Douglas]

I reckonits best to use the Italian fleet against assets rather than against territory - attack the transports, bombard the N African ports, try to sweep French coastal traffic out of the Eastern Gulf of Lyon etc

The real question comes when the French fleet forces the Italians to give battle, or vice versa - who is the best ?

Could Goeben on her own turn the tide ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well, one also has to count in the RN units, and the Austrian units.

I think the most the Italian fleet will accomplish is tie down more RN assets in the summer of 1914...my gut feeling considering Italy's performance in OTL Great War makes me think that Italy's entry won't win the war in 1914 for the CP. After 1915 though...

 

[Grey Wolf]

Well, one also has to count in the RN units, and the Austrian units.

I think the most the Italian fleet will accomplish is tie down more RN assets in the summer of 1914...my gut feeling considering Italy's performance in OTL Great War makes me think that Italy's entry won't win the war in 1914 for the CP. After 1915 though...

I dont think the Austrian units will agree to serve in the Western Med, thus necessitating someone - presumably the RN - to cover them in turn. Now, THAT could be an interesting battle in the Ionian Sea, British BCs and ACs against the main Austrian battleline, such as it was...

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Riain]

Much like OTL I don't think the Italian and AH fleets would be commited to battle. Their threat alone would drive much of Entente naval operations, in the way that the HSF could never do. easy access to most of the Med would mean that the Entente would need to maintian active naval superiority, cycling enough ships through the Med to ensure that if the I/AH fleet did come out in strength it would be defeated. This task would weaken either the RN GF, or the BEF if the strength was found by new construction at the expense of the army.

 

[Tocomocho]

Are the Ottomans in the CP also or can they be bribed by the Entente to join her side and retake Lybia and the Dodecanese?

 

[Grey Wolf]

Are the Ottomans in the CP also or can they be bribed by the Entente to join her side and retake Lybia and the Dodecanese?

Without the Goeben they are probably neutral. The only bribe they might accept from the Entente is the delivery of the Osman I and Reshadieh and I can't see Churchill allowing that. They will be strictly neutral I would imagine, their internal tensions pulling this way then that but not getting into the war...IMVHO

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Without the Goeben they are probably neutral. The only bribe they might accept from the Entente is the delivery of the Osman I and Reshadieh and I can't see Churchill allowing that. They will be strictly neutral I would imagine, their internal tensions pulling this way then that but not getting into the war...IMVHO

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

This I Think, is The BIGGEST Butterfly ...

In a Short War I Don't See it Making Much of a Difference ...

But Starting in Late 1915, British and Russian Contributions to The Existent Fronts Will Be that Much Larger than in OTL!

 

[M79]

A CP Italian navy means over a quarter million Serbian troops and their material are not going to survive the sealift from Montenegro. It also means that the more protected Adriatic harbors of the Austrians would be available for repairs and the AH-I fleets might try for open engagement of the British and French fleet.

 

[Grey Wolf]

A CP Italian navy means over a quarter million Serbian troops and their material are not going to survive the sealift from Montenegro. It also means that the more protected Adriatic harbors of the Austrians would be available for repairs and the AH-I fleets might try for open engagement of the British and French fleet.

Ah, but with the Ottomans remaining neutral, the Bulgarians may well not join the war, so Serbia is not going to be as hard-pressed. Everything impacts upon the other !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[ZaphodBeeblebrox]

Ah, but with the Ottomans remaining neutral, the Bulgarians may well not join the war, so Serbia is not going to be as hard-pressed. Everything impacts upon the other !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Essentially in OTL, Italy's Very Neutrality Forced The Goeben into Widening The War in its Search for a Port to Call Home ...

As Such it Remains an EXTREMELY European War and May Not Even Be Thought of as Much of a Conflict ...

This is Especially So if Paris Falls to an Early Austro-Italo-German Advance, But if it Lasts Even as Long as Late 1915 Expect Yet Higher Casualties on The Major Fronts Simply Due to The Larger Available Manpower!

 

[Syphon]

Without the Goeben they are probably neutral. The only bribe they might accept from the Entente is the delivery of the Osman I and Reshadieh and I can't see Churchill allowing that. They will be strictly neutral I would imagine, their internal tensions pulling this way then that but not getting into the war...IMVHO

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The problem with this is that the Ottomans have suffered a tremendous loss of face by the British stealing their ships.

The Osman I, I think was nearly ready to leave and the Turkish sailors were for all intensive purposes frog marched off the ship.

To keep the Ottomans neutral the British would have to offer heavy compensation and a very public explanation and apology.

Remember that these ships were paid for by public subscriptions and if the government didn't get the above then you might have what happened to the Ottoman government happen early.

I wonder if GB would be willing to say issue the public apology and explanation with the promise after the end of the war to replace the ships with better one like maybe two or three Royal Sovereign's.

Expensive but it might do the trick.

Remember after the war in OTL the ships in question were sold to Chile and Brazil at nearly a third of their construction cost.

I guess it would all come down to whether GB is willing to suffer the loss of face to keep the Ottomans neutral.
Don't even think of them joining the Entente too much bad blood over Egypt and the canal not to mention GB actions Arabia.

 

[arctic warrior]

Even if the troops from Algeria are able to get into Paris, one needs to put into the mix the Italian troops which would be coming from the alps. So perhaps this gives the CP the manpower they need, in the early days, to win.

Or the Germans would try to get the Italians to participate in Operation Bär (Bear), where the Italian army is generally shifted to Germany to hold the Alsace-Moselle and the German army right flank is strenghtened by 6.th and 7.th armies.

 

[Soren]

Agincourt & Erin

Syphon

In OTL the Agincourt & Erin were scrapped in 1921-2 not 'sold to Chile & Brazil at nearly a third of their construction cost.'

 

[Ace Venom]

Italy ultimately performed poorly in WWI. Their presence put a distracting front against Austria-Hungary. Against a stronger opponent like France, Italy's contribution will be to bog down French and British troops on other fronts. British colonial troops will undoubtedly attack Eritrea and Somalia. Libya may very well go British as well.

This all assumes what has been offered to Italy or some POD that gets Italy against the Allies despite irredentist demands. Because I don't think Austria-Hungary would give up territory to Italy without pressure from Berlin (which probably won't come), the latter unknown POD would have to suffice.

 

[Grey Wolf]

Italy ultimately performed poorly in WWI. Their presence put a distracting front against Austria-Hungary. Against a stronger opponent like France, Italy's contribution will be to bog down French and British troops on other fronts. British colonial troops will undoubtedly attack Eritrea and Somalia. Libya may very well go British as well.

This all assumes what has been offered to Italy or some POD that gets Italy against the Allies despite irredentist demands. Because I don't think Austria-Hungary would give up territory to Italy without pressure from Berlin (which probably won't come), the latter unknown POD would have to suffice.

Read Albertini - Austria WAS pressurised extremely hard by Berlin to cede Gorizia and Istrian border regions in return for Italian participation in the war and Vienna reluctantly went along with this, but Italy wasn't playing

In addition, Italy won't lose anything to Britain if its on the winning side of the war, it would just have them occupied for a while.

Also, Britain isn't likely to invade the Italian Somali protectorates as these are de facto independent at this time (OTL Italy fought a vicious war in the mid/late 1920s to conquer them)

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Syphon]

Syphon

In OTL the Agincourt & Erin were scrapped in 1921-2 not 'sold to Chile & Brazil at nearly a third of their construction cost.'

Sorry confused them with Canada.

These two ships were originally ordered by Brazil but they then on sold them to the Ottomans.

 

[wkwillis]

Italy mobilizes, France cancels their plan to invade Alsace and Lorraine, giving them forces to maintain their front in the Alps and coincidentally giving them reserves in being to stop the Germans at the Belgian border, thus saving their coal, steel, and industrial base from German occupation.
Now that is a divergence!
Russia realises that they are going to be fighting a lot more German forces and is less enthusiastic about going for Berlin, so they stop advancing and deny the Germans their cauldron battle at Tannenburg and Masurian Lakes.
That's another big divergence!
The idea of Turkey sitting out the war because they don't get the German ships and crews that made attacking Russia possible is also a major divergence, with tremendous savings of allied forces no longer sucked into the Dardannelles, Salonika, Sinai, and Basra fronts. Turkey is not only going to keep the Arab territories and the oil, they are going to make a lot of money railroading Allied stuff past the Italian and Austrian naval blockade.

 

[ljofa]

It's going to take more than just vague promises about Tunisia and Algeria to make Italy join in the Great War - Entente in OTL had to use cash incentives, not just "this is what you'll get if you join in". Italy could have just invaded without co-ordinating an attack but of course there was no guarantee that the Entente would lose.

Better incentivisation on the part of the Central Powers would be needed - of course, this would tie-up resources that would be needed elsewhere. I think this thread has been done before IIRC and I think I said that Gallipoli would be shelved - the ANZACs could land outside Rome and easily take the city, much better than the Dardanelle campaign

 

[Grey Wolf]

Better incentivisation on the part of the Central Powers would be needed - of course, this would tie-up resources that would be needed elsewhere. I think this thread has been done before IIRC and I think I said that Gallipoli would be shelved - the ANZACs could land outside Rome and easily take the city, much better than the Dardanelle campaign

That doesn't seem hugely likely as they have to get past the Italian fleet, no doubt in this scenario backed up by the Goeben, and even with (they might be surprised to find themselves doing this, but joint command IIRC was given to Souchon) Austrian support

Plus, if the ANZAC force does get ashore, its obviously after a series of naval battles with one very obvious aim, so the Italian army is going to know what's coming, just not where. But I would certainly think they would have their capital well covered !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[Fenwick]

Well Italy in WWI I think did as well as any European army that rushe dto combat could. However a real thing of value is just how much Italy made during the war, and sent to the allied front. Fiat for example went from a workforce of 4,300 in 1914 to 43,000 by the end of the war. In 1915 it was producing 70,000 of the motorized vehicles (including Italy's first tanks) used by the allies. The army have 147 army pieces in 1914 and over 2,000 by 1917. So while it's industry was low it had the ability to expand greatly in a short period of time. So if the war is forced to expand into years, the additional industry is a very great boost to the Central Powers.