Italy in CP, naval war in the Med.

The Italians also had some really excellent MAS torpedo boats (which sunk an AH DN in OTL)... you can't send a PDN for coastal ops against Italy...its asking to be sunk some kind of jutland esque confrontation is more likely; which depending on the dates and the scale of what the British decide to committ to the theater in response to Italian intervetion could swing either way

You don't use capital ships on coastal shipping, you use destroyers and cruisers on it and other light craft.

Michael
 
that was not our scenario, EF

Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy substantially changes the WW1 strategic equation in favor of the CP:

-The Anglo-French shall be forced to redeploy at least about 20-25% of their total forces on the Western front on the Alps. This substantially accelerates the timetable of French manpower crisis and mutines (and please note that when Italy joins the war, the Gallipoli fiasco is already well underway, so those men can't be salvaged to plug the holes on the Western front).

-An Italian expeditionary corps deploys in Albania and ensures full encirclement of Serbia. No Serbian soldier shall escape, this makes the Salonika front unfeasible, trhe Balkans shall be a CP playground, Greece a CP-friendly neutral and Romania is very likely to join the CP.

-After Serbia collapses, 100% of Austrian manpower can be used against Russia. Combined with CP Romania, this substantially accerates the timetable of Russian collapse.

-Egypt finds itself in a strategic vice, Britain shall have to deploy additional forces to cover it, which shall be unavailable to help the French.

-As a the sum result of those factors, we can totally expect that Russia (or less likely France) collapses within 1916. Therefore, Germany sees victory close enough that does not restart USW. This, combined with the shift in US public opinion created by a larger CP block, ensures American neutrality. No US troops to relieve the manpower-starved French when the full sum of German, Austrian, and Italian manpower is thrown on the Western front. As a result, CP offensives achieve a strategic breakthrough within 1917. France collapses.

-UK blockade loses effectiveness as trade restarts by land and American public opinion turns more and more against it, as they want to restart trade with the CP-dominated continent. CP offensives in Egypt and Persia. The CP start USW with the tacit approval of America, by now a friendly neutral.

-Britain is forced to accept a compromise peace.

When i saw the tittle, i know who gonna come here, but again, with the most better details(who want to collapse A-H But that will only make the life to the CP more difficult), again like Wiking Explain us(checks the topic, Italy shall not fight... in WW1 for more details), a neutral Italy, more, an CP Italy will means a better A-H, and with that, they have the power to make a reverse brusilov, and how we discuss an almost destroy IBC, the timetible to russia collapse will be Spring 1917 at best(unless the Czar want peace early who is very dificult), but that is the key date, with that france is in critical position and all...

In OTL , when Italy declared war Against the CP, the A-H return the cordiallity with a shore bombarment in the adriatic... here the Entente will do that favor, in general who have to know that being in the CP will means are more exhaustes Itally when the CP wins, and that means that they will be less powerful than OTL(again like i told like ovet nine thousand time before) but again the postbellum only start...

The war will be Brutal for Italy, all here MUST recgonized that, with having facing the Entente Navies now, the another CP(the Ottomans and the Austro-Hungaries) will be relive with that, but again...Itally breaking point is a smaller one(not for nothing Capporetto almost make them thorw out the towel) and that is someone who the italians must resist.... i have little faith wit that. :cool:

In general we can have a major naval battle in the Liggurian sea and the gulf of Marsellies... how will be that battle is the next topic here.

Att
Nivek von Beldo

P.S. Eurofed..... you have and interesting butt, isn't it?
 
Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy substantially changes the WW1 strategic equation in favor of the CP:

Lets see..


Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -The Anglo-French shall be forced to redeploy at least about 20-25% of their total forces on the Western front on the Alps. This substantially accelerates the timetable of French manpower crisis and mutines (and please note that when Italy joins the war, the Gallipoli fiasco is already well underway, so those men can't be salvaged to plug the holes on the Western front).

Gallipoli was April 1915 to Jan 1916. If Italy looks to be getting ready to join the war it doesn't happen at all. More likely Churchill would cook something else up like invading Sicily.

Also Its more like 10% as no one is going offenses in those mountains. The Italian plan pre-war was to be shipped into southern Germany not go after France over the common border. If the Italians do they make even less headway than they did vs. the Hapsburgs.

Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -An Italian expeditionary corps deploys in Albania and ensures full encirclement of Serbia. No Serbian soldier shall escape, this makes the Salonika front unfeasible, trhe Balkans shall be a CP playground, Greece a CP-friendly neutral and Romania is very likely to join the CP.

Depending on time Bulgaria is still a problem and command down there is going to be a problem. Hapsburgs would insist on being in charge. Italy and Bulgaria refuse, multi-month dog fight to sort out and get a German in charge.

Serbs retreat into Greece instead of Albania and hold Salonika hostage till French and British come pick them up.

Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -After Serbia collapses, 100% of Austrian manpower can be used against Russia. Combined with CP Romania, this substantially accerates the timetable of Russian collapse.

Romania is very hard to gauge what the heck they do as their leadership is nearly as screwed up as the Greeks. I can make claims for them jumping any which way and they would all be reasonable. They might join the CP or the Russians might pull a neat battlefield victory out at somepoint and one someone convinces themselves that AH is about to collapse and push Romania into the war on the Allies side.

Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -Egypt finds itself in a strategic vice, Britain shall have to deploy additional forces to cover it, which shall be unavailable to help the French.

Med would be a much better place to put troops like Indian Army units that got sick and died in droves on Western Front. Also if push comes to shove, England and France chuck China under the bus and get the IJN into the Med, they had ships doing escort were there but here its a battle group.



Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -As a the sum result of those factors, we can totally expect that Russia (or less likely France) collapses within 1916. Therefore, Germany sees victory close enough that does not restart USW. This, combined with the shift in US public opinion created by a larger CP block, ensures American neutrality. No US troops to relieve the manpower-starved French when the full sum of German, Austrian, and Italian manpower is thrown on the Western front. As a result, CP offensives achieve a strategic breakthrough within 1917. France collapses.

Hmmmm.... You have made a house of card based on things that are in some case out right wrong. Serbia going down is debatable when exactly as the Germans are going to want to push Gorlice-Tarnow Offensive. Once that is done then yes they can focus on Serbia. It might be early 1915 it might be late 1915, on schedule as Bulgaria had its own issues.

Russia went down because of internal collapse not battlefield defeat. Also anything that makes Hindenburg and Ludendorff look good Falkenhayn isn't going to be in favor of so he will want to focus on West Front, maybe he thinks France is distracted and he pours half a million troops down the rat hole that is western front in 1915.

Its very possible that the CP do win in 1917 as things will look very dark indeed and that would be the best chance.

Some ways by which early 1915 CP Italy -UK blockade loses effectiveness as trade restarts by land and American public opinion turns more and more against it, as they want to restart trade with the CP-dominated continent. CP offensives in Egypt and Persia. The CP start USW with the tacit approval of America, by now a friendly neutral.

-Britain is forced to accept a compromise peace.

Maybe perhaps, massive amount unknown and assumed here. Fell free to do a time line on it! I am sure it would be great to read.

Michael
 
So the Gallipoli Campaign is cancelled and the troops go to southern France ensuring any Italian offensive ends in disaster.

Of course, with all of the Ottoman Empire's recent enemies with the CP or leaning towards it there is a very good chance that the Ottoman Empire joins the Entente in return for everything Italy and Bulgaria recently took so there won't be a need for a Gallipoli campaign. This dramatically improves Russia's access to supplies and frees up the powerful Russian forces deployed against the Ottoman OTL.

In this scenario there will be plenty of troops available for southern France if actually needed.


Any suggestions that Italy will be on the offensive against Egypt belongs in the ASB category. Italy won't be able to supply a third of its own country in this scenario so the odds of keeping Libya are virtually nil. Advancing from Libya...:rolleyes:
 
So that's it, structurally impossible? Mmm, I have my doubts about that conclusion.

So would CP heavies be able to link up with Italy on side? Could Gobben get to the Adriatic, or is it doomed to the Black Sea? Were the AH battleships any good?
 
So that's it, structurally impossible? Mmm, I have my doubts about that conclusion.

Italy had economic programs, lots of them and if the French & British can trash Italian Coastal Shipping, which the Italians concluded prewar that the British could and would, then their economic problems get even worse.

In the short term the Italians and Hapsburgs have more Dreadnoughts and the central position that has advantages. But they are two separate fleets, two separate set of doctrines and mutual suspicion so cooperation will have problems. I do think they that they have a good chance to defeat the French fleet in a stand up battle. At the same time French and British naval strength will increase relative to theirs and Italian economics get worse. So its use it or loose it.

So would CP heavies be able to link up with Italy on side? Could Gobben get to the Adriatic, or is it doomed to the Black Sea? Were the AH battleships any good?

I see no trouble with the Italian and Hapsburg fleets uniting if they can work out command issues.

Goeben started the war in Pola having her boilers worked on so if Italy honors the triple alliance then its no trouble. Now once Goeben gets to the Ottoman Empire then it becomes a bit of a problem to get out.

Michael
 
All combattants had economic problems, half the books written on the wars are about how one power or another totally sucked. I don't deny that Italy had problems, but most probably like Russia and Austria-Hungary she wouldn't collapse immediately but only after years of grinding warfare, and after it had been proven that her ability to strike out was useless.
 
All combattants had economic problems, half the books written on the wars are about how one power or another totally sucked. I don't deny that Italy had problems, but most probably like Russia and Austria-Hungary she wouldn't collapse immediately but only after years of grinding warfare, and after it had been proven that her ability to strike out was useless.

The problem is Italy had economic programs when she was a neutral in a sense one of the reasons she joined the war was to get out from the effects of the British attempt to restrict materials shipment to Austria and Germany. I know there was much more to it than that but its a useful data point. In particular anything that gets cut off Germany really isn't going to be able to replace in any amount at all. The model to follow is I suspect A-H and their economy totally collapsed in 1918 with huge drop offs all across the board.

In WW1 two nations out right shattered under the strain of the war; Austria-Hungary and Russia. Germany collapsed from war exhaustion. Two others had massive moral problems in their armies and or civilian fronts in 1917; France and Italy. The UK had all sorts of problems but not to the same extent or type as the other powers.

Looking at the data points, with the economic strain on Italy even worse than Historic then its going to have even worse problems. I wouldn't be shocked if there was some type of popular uprising over conditions in 1916 or early 1917 in Italy. Would it be enough to knock them out? Unknown as it would depend on many unknown variable. The first government in Russia after the Tsar tried to keep Russia in the war.

Don't be surprised if the Lenin and his friends go to Italy instead though. Its closer and its more industrialized in the North which is right near Switzerland. I am not saying this is what happen just that its one of the many possible ways it could play out from Victory over France in 1914 to revolution and revolt in 1917 and with everything in between.

I just see many problems the longer the war goes on for Italy.

Michael
 
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