So, what would happen to Italy if the CP won very, very late (think succesful Kaiserschlacht)? While Italy would still have room to expand (particularly in Albania and in Dalmatia after the inevitable Austro-Hungarian collapse), would being on the losing side be enough for the monarchy be overthrown in a fascist coup? Which figures apart from Mussolini (and D'Annunzio, who from what I've read wss more of a fascist playboy than a leading Mussolini-esque figure) could lead the resultant fascist republic?
Italy in a 1918 CP Victory scenario
- Thread starter El_Presidente
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- cp victory fascism italy ww i
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Ah... Fascist Coup? Not likely by any stretch of the imagination. Even if far right Republicans tried, they'd find themselves overwhelmed by the much larger, more deeply rooted, better organized Socialists-Communists. The Fascists got into power in Europe for the most part as the appointed guard dogs/deniable assets/compromise figureheads of the broader right wing, who then usurped control of the levers of power from their errestwhile handlers who thought they would be the dominant party in the relationship. If the Royalists/Traditionalists aren't ushering them in, they have no chance.
Nonetheless, a fascist coup is what happened in Italy; the King didn't appoint Mussolini out of any particular sympathy to fascism, but to avoid the civil war that would surely start should he try to stop the March on Rome.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
... yes, because a civil war would be a red carpet for the Reds to take power. The Facists were brought into the fold so their violence would continue to be repression against the rising Communist tied and to avoid infighting among the Anti-Communists. They were useful attack dogs that happened to be better at playing politics than the classical Conservatives thought they would be.
If the demands are suitably minor, not much would happen - a pro-CP government is installed, and promptly ratifies any terms.
I am pessimistic such an Italy would be able to profit fully from any dissolution of A-H, as it would have to hastily amass the force needed to actually conduct their 'liberation'.
And thus, wouldn't the discredited stablishment be more prone to surrender to the fascists to prevent a red takeover?
I don't think that the CP would be able to install a puppet government, nor they would have the wish to do so (their plates are already full with Eastern Europe).
Okay, the word 'installed' may be excessive, but they would for sure all but demand the dimissions of all non-compliant members and those in the compromised cabinet would likely be forced to resign en masse.
The problem is, the demands by the Central Powers won't be suitably minor, they will be harsher than on any other Entente member. Italy was an ally of Germany and Austria-Hungary before the war, and would be severely punished for switching sides and betraying this alliance.
If Austria-Hungary survives, they would certainly take all of Venetia, establishing the Adige as the new border. The rest of the country might be split apart into a number of smaller states; a vassalised Padania comes to mind, or an independent Sicily (only the island, not former mainland Sicily) with CP bases.
Why would they take even more restive, non-German, populace? And to balkanize a nation, even a fairly weak one such as Italy, they would need to invest a lot of energy which they really do not have in 1918.
I doubt that there would be enforced balkanisation of Italy. It would be very hard to achieve and CPs should occupy the country.
I think that Italy would lost its colonies and perhaps but just perhaps it would lost Venetia but this is not certain. AH didn't wan't more ground speciality non-German areas. For Italy would had ordered high reparations and its army would had been restricted greatly.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
No, because the establishment isent absurdly deeply discredited and would only lose more credit by yeilding to the militants on the far right and taking on a subordinate position, rather than appearing to and partially co-opting them. The Fasicts weren't exactly the most popular faction in the world and had zero legitimacy at this point: they need the Conservatives on board willingly if they want to be successful.
It's not like the stablishment has any choice.after losing the Great War.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Yes, they do. They can somewhat liberalize, they can offer some economic concessions to try to co-opt the moderate left, they can militerize themselves if they get a little less squimish and send the Army proper into take care of stamping out the worst of the worker's riots, they can run a smear campaign on the Facist leaders and reveal that their papers had been running as forgein agents who dragged Italy into the war at the behest of their French and British masters, they can find the former Pro-CP and non-interventionist officals displacing the ashamed leaders form power. They have options other than "Roll over and let the Fascists run everything".
If you want to ask the question "What happens if the Fascists take over after a CP victory?" than that's fine. But you're asking what would happen if a CP victory occured period, which means you have to be willing to aknowledge there is more than one possability.
I mean , the fascist ended up ruling everything. In the event of a CP victory that discredits the ruling regime even more that it was in OTL mutilated victory, I can only thing of an even more serious backlash from the fascist right.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
No, the people who ruled everything ended up adopting the label of Fascist and agreeing Mussolini was a good first among equals around which the broader Right could be organized. They were invited into the establishment and ended up reshaping it in their image and getting the folks already inside to agree to wear their label as the ideology was useful and had its appealing aspects. That required the structure of the state to stay in place and retain its legitimacy and power so the Fascists to take on that mantel: if they diden't have that and had to purge the moderate-right, the Commies would have wiped the floor with Mussolini and his followers.
In a 1918 CP victory? Sure A-H will greatly desire to turn back the clock to pre-unitary Italy...but this is feasible as do it to Germany in an harsher Versailles, Wien know that bring in the empire another unruly minority was problematic and the treaty will have given her some border adjustment so to have a better defensible border and severe limitation to army and a lot of reparation; naturally by now everybody will have much greater problem, loser and winner alike, so in all probability any treaty will be just very temporary
I might be wrong but i seem to remember that the italian south was not really that happy within Italy at the time. Meaning that an independent Naples and Sicily might work.
Some decades too late for that, they were generally unhappy with the goverment as the rest of Italy but this is very different than support separation under a puppet king of an hostile power.
A-H has bigger fish to fry and little means to enforce a harsh treaty on Italy, if they can get Italy to pay something in the form of reparations for a time that would already be good enough, and some minor corrections along the border. In fact Italy could be gaining things, Corsica, Savoy and Tunisia if the Germans intend to weaken France. It's not unthinkable, Denmark got land despite not being in the war and Austria got land at the former ally Hungarys expense. Having gotten a lenient treaty compared to Russa and France with same presents from an unwilling France would probably put a lid on any further popular demans for foreign policy adventures in Europe at such high human cost.
yourworstnightmare
Banned
Honestly if Italy lost WW1, a socialist revolution is among the likely outcomes. Though Germany and Austria- Hungary would want to stop that. Maybe the easiest answer is Italy will just be a big mess.