Italy honors triple alliance in 1914

[Typo]

Both of which are very very small minorities even within the Irish immigrant community which reached the level of influence they did owing to very special circumstances.

Basically if you are of an acceptable white ethnicity you are pretty much a WASP after a generation in the US.

 

[machine3589]

It was often said before that the Italians would have helped defeat both the French and Russians earlier because of the reasons already stated. Now, If the British would refrain from being invincible (as they are often depicted on AH.com), you could see the war ending a year or two earlier, since the Italians or Germans wont be able to push into France enough to force a peace treaty. At least in the first years, anyway.

 

[Zimmerwald1915]

Basically if you are of an acceptable white ethnicity you are pretty much a WASP after a generation in the US.

WASPs would disagree with you

 

[Cornelius]

Even if we assume the Italian and AH fleets work together, meaning that AH puts her fleet in line for destruction to help the very country the fleet was aimed against, Italy's near total dependency on sea travel due to lack of rail transport for just about everything in the area south of Rome, and Sicily and Sardinia, means that the only question is whether the economy for half the country is in ruins with or without the Italian fleet going down as well. So sitting on the defensive all but ensures disaster for Italy and a constitutional monarchy may not be able to hold up under those conditions.

I have to agree with Grimm Reaper on this point. The royal navy could strangle the italian economy easily, but it would take time to force Italy to submission through a blockade. And time is the key factor in this scenario.

Since the germans would have anyway invaded France passing through Belgium (triggering so the UK intervention), the question is if the french army could have stopped them, while having to man the italian border too. As Eurofed wrote, the battle of Marna was quite a close run OTL, so it would plausible that the central powers could prevail over the french army.
If the germans take Paris, what the french are going to do? If the army is still in a fighting shape, they could set up a goverment in Borderaux and try to retake Paris. But if the army is destroyed (like happened in 1870 and 1940) they could even sue for peace. And with France out of the equation, the entente would be in some dire straits.

So in this scenario, the war will be necessarily quick. The first side to lose one member due economic attrition or conquest will probably lose the war too.

As for the USA I think that they would follow OTL policy and don't get involved initially. They won't feel any need to meddle with european affairs (not anymore than OTL), but not for the various ethnic groups efforts, but simply for lack of true interest. OTL it took three years of naval warfare and a lot of investments in the entente nations to trigger the american intervention.

The ottoman empire will probably stay neutral too. Enver pasha could force the war only through the Goeben arrival, but ITTL the ship would probably seek shelter in an italian port. The sublime porte could be indeed tempted to join the entente and get back the territories held by the italians, but I think they would prefer neutrality.

 

[Eurofed]

I have to agree with Grimm Reaper on this point. The royal navy could strangle the italian economy easily, but it would take time to force Italy to submission through a blockade. And time is the key factor in this scenario.

Despite the usual claims of Britwankers that the invincible RN can win all the wars and defeat anyone quickly and effortlessly with blockades and coastal raids, Italian economy won't be nowhere as easy to strangle by British blockade as others seem to think (not really more than the other CPs, anyway). Because pretty much all the Italian economy that matters is concentrated north of Rome, where the railroad network is good and can keep the backbone of the war economy together. Italy is much more self-sufficient about foodstuff than the other CPs and German coal can fuel Italian industry. There is going to be some significant hardship, but it is nothing that the Italian WWI semi-dictatorial war government can't manage. Yeah, Sardinia is pratically lost for the duration of the war, but it's no big loss.

And the Entente has very few significant "bargaining chips" towards the Ottomans. They look like the weaker party in this lineup, Serbia and its entire army shall go down very quick, which means that Greece shall be a CP-friendly neutral, and the CP shall control the entire Balkans. In this scenario, Turkey has the opportunity to inflict a telling blow to its old arch-enemy Russia, and seize plenty of stuff in Caucaus and Persia. And if the Entente can offer Libya, the CPs can offer Egypt and Cyprus, plus stuff in Caucasus and Persia. Most likey, the Ottomans join the CPs soon, which means Britain now has all the Middle Eastern theaters to man, besides helping overstrenched and manpower-starved France.

 

[bm79]

Just to provide some stats...

When WWI began Austria-Hungary had two dreadnaughts in service, a third just entering service and nine pre-dreadnaughts of various classes.

Italy had six dreadnaughts in service or just entering service and as many as ten pre-dreadnaught and outright antiques including at least one dating from the 1870s(!).

In August 1914, only the Dante Alighieri was truly operational. The Guilio Cesare OTL didn't enter service until mid 1915, and the other four come on-line one-by-one until the end of 1917. At the start of this WWI, Britain and France have the combined weight of the Italians and the Austro-Hungarians totally swamped in the Med.

 

[santosza]

Hi guys I have something to add to this. I believe that if Italy joined the war in the beginning then most likely what would have happened is that the Entree Alliance would have been placed under more strain and be forced to play more on the defensive.

If we look at OTL at what Italy did on the Allied side then we can get a rough idea of what they could do on the other. As we know Italy provided a lot of troops on the Austrian front and significantly contributed to the Austrian Empire’s fall. While the Italian Army’s tatics were behind in some areas, they could put up a good fight. Their strength was in their troops and their artillery which gave them a significant advantage in the war. Now what would happen if that was switched to the French.

Time is an important factor in when you attack your enemy. The longer you delay the harder it is to achieve your objectives. Now if Italy was to attack straight off the bat, she would probably break through the Alps very quickly with troops and other things associated with the army but she would be facing a rapidly building French Army that would come do the defence of France. Italian troops may defeat the initial counter-attacks of the French Army. However, they will face much harder problem once they close in on Marseille.

The battle to capture the city will be one of the most important objectives of the war. The Italian Army will throw a lot of troops towards it and try to encircle the city. Sadly thought they will fail due to the extension of their supply lines and the dogged determination of the French to stop them. Their attack has ground to a halt and just like the Northern Front (Calais – Metz trench frontline)the war will drag on in pitched battles over small areas.

The Italians will keep the war going with help from their Allies; resources will be shipped to their factories. Still the war will drag on and the Navy will be dragged into battle to keep the trade lanes open, most likely the Italians will try to avoid major naval engagements against the British and only aim to raid and damage their small ships. Their navy will be under heavy stress sadly. Things will also be different in Libya as well.
Libya will be under pressure from both sides most likely, so the best option will be for them to go on an attack on both fronts. Assuming they enter the war in 1914 and the Ottoman Empire joins the war on the CP’s side then it’s going to be a dual push toward the Nile. My knowledge on Africa in WW1 so don’t be too harsh if I get this wrong. Most likely the British should be able to hold onto Egypt but they will have to spread out their troops accordingly. The war in Africa will gradually be won by the Entree but it will be a harder job to win all the battles.

As for the other fronts there will be some minor changes in the short term. A good starting point would be the Northern Front, the Germans will be able to focus more troops on that front and be able to push further then they did in OTL. However, the French will be fighting a lot harder despite a net loss of troop’s going to other fronts.

 

[santosza]

I want to ask if it's possibile for someone to please respond to this thread as I believe this idea hasn't been explored.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I can't see Italy and Austria getting chummy. Italy would demand loads of territory from Austria in exchange for honouring the alliance (Trent, Gorizia, Trieste most likely) and if Austria gives and Italy attack the Entente, the relations between Austria and Italy would be worse than ever, and they wouldn't help each other out, and just creating more frictions within the Central Powers.

Of course France might crumble with an additional Italian front to worry about and Austria would not have to worry about an Italian front (at least not until Post WW1). The Ottoman Empire might not join the war, since Italy and the Ottomans pretty much loathed each other.

 

[santosza]

Here is the thing though, if more countries are joining up with Germany aren't the rest of them going to join up. Even if they arw doing their own thing they could still work together easily and put more pressure or the Allies.

 

[machine3589]

Here is the thing though, if more countries are joining up with Germany aren't the rest of them going to join up. Even if they arw doing their own thing they could still work together easily and put more pressure or the Allies.

Entante, please.

 

[Cornelius]

I can't see Italy and Austria getting chummy.

Maybe because they never were even friendly. The history of Austrian-Italian relantionship during the triple alliance is one of mutual suspect and diffidence. The very fact that these two nations became allied baffles me.

Anyway, Italy could have in effect asked for the "irredenta lands" in exchange for his partecipation to the war, but I think that promise of french territories and colonies as more likely.
To get Italy to join the central powers, in fact, you have to modify the relations with Austria. Had they been good, Italy would have probably joined her allies and sought land gains from the entente nations.

Bettering the relantions between the two is not an easy task, since, a part from the irredenta problem, they also both wanted to expand into the balkans. Maybe if italians had been more successful in Africa, they could have left the balkans to Austria, but I wouldn't be so sure either.

Despite the usual claims of Britwankers that the invincible RN can win all the wars and defeat anyone quickly and effortlessly with blockades and coastal raids, Italian economy won't be nowhere as easy to strangle by British blockade as others seem to think (not really more than the other CPs, anyway). Because pretty much all the Italian economy that matters is concentrated north of Rome, where the railroad network is good and can keep the backbone of the war economy together. Italy is much more self-sufficient about foodstuff than the other CPs and German coal can fuel Italian industry. There is going to be some significant hardship, but it is nothing that the Italian WWI semi-dictatorial war government can't manage.

It's true that Italy still had a mainly agriculture economy and was more self-sufficient on food that the others central powers nations, but you're forgetting that the main trading partners of Italy were France and UK, not Germany. Shifting the whole economy is a long and expansive.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

I can't see Italy and Austria getting chummy. Italy would demand loads of territory from Austria in exchange for honouring the alliance (Trent, Gorizia, Trieste most likely) and if Austria gives and Italy attack the Entente, the relations between Austria and Italy would be worse than ever, and they wouldn't help each other out, and just creating more frictions within the Central Powers.

OTL Austria offered up the southern (Italian) half of Trentino (they would have kept South Tyrol/Alto Aldige) but Trieste was a no-go.

Maybe if Germany leans hard enough AH may give up Goriza/parts of Istria, or even allow something like an "open city" deal or even a post-war plebiscite on Trieste, assuming Fiume can handle the AH(C?) traffic load. Trieste is the bugger here as it's too important for AH as a major port to an otherwise mostly landlocked empire.

Edit: On Italian agricultural potential, keep in mind all that Italy is not agriculturally self-sufficient any more and suffers massive issues with starving and overpopulated peasantry even in peacetime and depended a lot on food imports via sea. They can get coal and metals from the CP allies, but food remains a tight issue here. A CP Italy is in real strategic danger from a blockade, particularly when the UK controls Gibraltar and the canal

 

[machine3589]

OTL Austria offered up the southern (Italian) half of Trentino (they would have kept South Tyrol/Alto Aldige)

And this is about as much the Austrians were willing to give. Even giving Gorzia is pushing it, and it would be almost ASB to expect them to give up Istria or Trieste.

I think the decision rests on basically weather the Italians would accept only Trentino + what the Germans promised them in the case of a victory (and this is certantly not a negligable ammount of territory) for them to enter the war. But IMHO, it is more likely this deal would only cement their neutrality.

 

[Eurofed]

And this is about as much the Austrians were willing to give. Even giving Gorzia is pushing it, and it would be almost ASB to expect them to give up Istria or Trieste.

A timely promise of Trento, Gorizia-Gradisca, and all the French territory and colonies that Italy wanted may easily be enough to make Italy stay lotal to the Triple Alliance, and IMO Germany had more than enough influence on Austria to make them cede as much.

Edit: On Italian agricultural potential, keep in mind all that Italy is not agriculturally self-sufficient any more and suffers massive issues with starving and overpopulated peasantry even in peacetime and depended a lot on food imports via sea. They can get coal and metals from the CP allies, but food remains a tight issue here. A CP Italy is in real strategic danger from a blockade, particularly when the UK controls Gibraltar and the canal

Italy was still closer to agricultural self-sufficience than the other CP powers, and they managed to last four years. In all likelihood, with this lineup, the CPs would be victorious in 2-3 years at most.

It's true that Italy still had a mainly agriculture economy and was more self-sufficient on food that the others central powers nations, but you're forgetting that the main trading partners of Italy were France and UK, not Germany. Shifting the whole economy is a long and expansive.

It is nothing that a semi-dictatorial war government cannot manage fairly easily. WWI Italian governments and the high Command took sweeping emergency powers and used them ruthlessly.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Geekhis Khan, actually Italy south of Rome can't get metals or coal as they can only be moved by sea and the RN is liable to have the deciding vote as to what an enemy can move by sea.

As for improving Italy's relations with Austria-Hungary, the obvious conclusion is for Germany to destroy the alliance with Austria-Hungary, clearly a major drag with an inferior military which comes with no allies and a long list of enemies. So the CP breaks up anyway.

 

[Eurofed]

Geekhis Khan, actually Italy south of Rome can't get metals or coal as they can only be moved by sea and the RN is liable to have the deciding vote as to what an enemy can move by sea.

But pretty much all the Italian industry and modern economy is concentrated north of Rome, where the railway network is efficient and can allow shipping materials within norhtern Italy and with the other CPs.

As for improving Italy's relations with Austria-Hungary, the obvious conclusion is for Germany to destroy the alliance with Austria-Hungary, clearly a major drag with an inferior military which comes with no allies and a long list of enemies. So the CP breaks up anyway.

This is so hugely true, but it's another (very nifty) PoD.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

But pretty much all the Italian industry and modern economy is concentrated north of Rome, where the railway network is efficient and can allow shipping materials within norhtern Italy and with the other CPs.

Exactly. Industry, particularly then, is in the North. The South is ag. and barely beyond self-sufficient at that. The issue is not getting iron to Naples, but getting grain from Naples. Italy is likely to be the "bread basket of the CP", but that's not saying much compared to what larger nations can offer. Food is going to be the CP's real difficulty ITTL. A lot of rural peasants are going to go very hungry on the peninsula.

Note that Italy will be draining iron and coal resources from the CP since they have few to none of their own. How does this affect the G/AH war machine?

The CP in the end needs a relatively quick victory, which is possible, but not guaranteed. AH with Italy can hold and push back Russia (Serbia is hosed) and Germany with Italy does better vs. France, but in a defensive war environment as *WWI is, they're fighting the clock before the blockade really starts to make things ugly.

Could still go either way, IMO, though the CP possibly has a better chance than OTL.

 

[machine3589]

A timely promise of Trento, Gorizia-Gradisca, and all the French territory and colonies that Italy wanted may easily be enough to make Italy stay lotal to the Triple Alliance, and IMO Germany had more than enough influence on Austria to make them cede as much.

The underlined part is dubious to me. Trentino is a easy to give up: It is 100% Italian, it is a strategic weakness in the Austro-Hungarian border, and relatively unimportant to Austria.

Gorizia-Gradisca, however, fits neither of the last two conditions.

 

[Eurofed]

The underlined part is dubious to me. Trentino is a easy to give up: It is 100% Italian, it is a strategic weakness in the Austro-Hungarian border, and relatively unimportant to Austria.

Gorizia-Gradisca, however, fits neither of the last two conditions.

Gorizia-Gradisca is not really any economically important nor strategically vital to Austria. As long as they keep the Adriatic ports (Trieste, and Fiume to a lesser degree), they are fine in that regard. The non-Italian population is almost entirely Slovenians, hardly the nationality that the Habsburg empire pampered the most. It holds some significant strategic importance for Italy and Austria alike (more for the former than for the latter), but then again, Austria has to sacrifice something.