Italy gets container technology in 1927
- Thread starter Guarnasco
- Start date
OK, that's a new one. 
...Probably not a lot in the sense of "Italy conquers the world"; in all likelihood it will be seen as such an obviously good idea (as it was in OTL) that everyone else will have adopted it by WWII. Which may be considerably different (containerized convoys will probably ease the Battle of the Atlantic a little bit, for starters).
...Probably not a lot in the sense of "Italy conquers the world"; in all likelihood it will be seen as such an obviously good idea (as it was in OTL) that everyone else will have adopted it by WWII. Which may be considerably different (containerized convoys will probably ease the Battle of the Atlantic a little bit, for starters).
It would probably be rather smaller than that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containerization said:
The article also notes that the UK was using containers even earlier than your PoD
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Containerization said:
OK, that's a new one.
...Probably not a lot in the sense of "Italy conquers the world"; in all likelihood it will be seen as such an obviously good idea (as it was in OTL) that everyone else will have adopted it by WWII. Which may be considerably different (containerized convoys will probably ease the Battle of the Atlantic a little bit, for starters).
Indeed, but this will give Italy the advantge it needs to became decent power in 1939?
What about the impact on geopolitics if Italy became a mayor commercial power?
Surely it will spring an industrial revolution of sort, but it will be enough to better itlian performnce?
What will be the impact of containers (MODULI, metallic stakable boxes, ITTL) on Barbarossa?
What will be the impact of containers over european infrastructure?
Last edited:
Turnaround times for shipping improve, which will help quite a bit in a nation so dependent upon shipping for its economy and empire. The changes will, once eventually implemented after several years of refits, likely help the economy and the logistical efforts in Libya and the African horn.
Mussie may be able to build up for his inevitable invasion of Ethiopia sooner. Perhaps the war starts a few months earlier than OTL.
Still won't solve Italy's dreadfully limited and inefficient industry and economy, but will slowly begin to save some Lire and manpower that can eventually be put towards more weapons or more boots on the ground. Not enough to make any real difference in WW2 (assuming minimal butterflies) though.
The big change may be in North Africa, assuming WW2 goes roughly as OTL. The improved shipping technology will mean the Afrikacorps can move supplies and munitions faster, which (at least until the RN eventually severs the lifeline) could mean Rommel goes farther before eventually running out of supplies.
Worst case he (temporarily) takes the Canal. The loss of British forces and the pressure to retake the canal could make things worse in the Pacific in the short run.
Still, unless other major major SNAFUs are cleared from the Italian gov't this only delays the inevitable defeat, at best a year.
Best-case scenario for the Axis is Italy holds out another year and Japan pushes farther into India before hitting the inevitable wall.
Mussie may be able to build up for his inevitable invasion of Ethiopia sooner. Perhaps the war starts a few months earlier than OTL.
Still won't solve Italy's dreadfully limited and inefficient industry and economy, but will slowly begin to save some Lire and manpower that can eventually be put towards more weapons or more boots on the ground. Not enough to make any real difference in WW2 (assuming minimal butterflies) though.
The big change may be in North Africa, assuming WW2 goes roughly as OTL. The improved shipping technology will mean the Afrikacorps can move supplies and munitions faster, which (at least until the RN eventually severs the lifeline) could mean Rommel goes farther before eventually running out of supplies.
Worst case he (temporarily) takes the Canal. The loss of British forces and the pressure to retake the canal could make things worse in the Pacific in the short run.
Still, unless other major major SNAFUs are cleared from the Italian gov't this only delays the inevitable defeat, at best a year.
Best-case scenario for the Axis is Italy holds out another year and Japan pushes farther into India before hitting the inevitable wall.
This is a good WI, though the changes are less immediately earth-shattering than you may have assumed. All in all a shipping revolution is started, but it will take time to propagate.
To directly answer your questions:
...but this will give Italy the advantge it needs to became decent power in 1939?
To be honest, no. This alone will not do it by 1939. Still far too much corruption and inefficiency to overcome. It might, with some financial butterflies, boost the industry and economy some, but better shipping still won't make trucks come off the line any faster. Eventually the containers will allow for more industrial expansion and financial changes, but it will take more than 12 years.
What about the impact on geopolitics if Italy became a mayor commercial power?
Well, you'd need more than just shipping improvements to become a "major commercial power". You'd need to improve the inefficient bureaucracy (which Fascist corporativism just made that much worse). You'd need some sort of real export markets, which save for some trade in vehicles and weapons Italy does not have at this time. And again, this alone doesn't allow you to build any more vehicles to export in the short term.
Surely it will spring an industrial revolution of sort, but it will be enough to better itlian performnce?
Immediate Revolution? No. Eventual Revolution, yes, but it'll take time to propagate. For the short term: potential improved shipping speed, but there are still so many economic/industrial deficiencies to overcome. The shipping may start the ball rolling in that regard, but you're still likely decades out before you see major changes from the "modular butterflies".
You improve the potential turnaround times in port, but only if the ports are efficiently run. Italy at the time had very poor port authority management. Ships would sit at anchor for days waiting to unload goods even when there were spots available simply because the harbor master didn't get word they were there or that spots were open. Now, assuming someone with a penchant for organization like Balbo takes notice... A little Castor oil at the right place can really get things moving.
What will be the impact of containers (MODULI, metallic stakable boxes, ITTL) on Barbarossa?
Probably not too much. Bigger impact on North Africa since shipping containers really make a bigger difference at seaports where there's so much more cargo per single vehicle. They'll allow quicker shifting of materials in rail yards, which will help some, but unloading and distributing goods from a container isn't that big of a difference from unloading them from a box car. No Axis truck at this point is likely to be able to haul a shipping container across the inadequate roads of Eastern Europe. You'll need to move crates into trucks or unload by hand no matter what.
What will be the impact of containers over european infrastructure?
As stated before this is an idea everyone else will eventually steal. Eventually every port in Europe and America and finally the world will be equipped with container cranes. Eventually (post war) major highways in the autobahn mold will see shipping containers on trucks, but the container tech alone doesn't automatically spur highway building. Probably through the war years it'll be containers unloaded from ships onto existing rail or barge networks for distribution to regional rail stations and canal ports, then hand- or forklift-load onto trucks for local distribution.
The eventual changes will be drastic and this will spur globalization that much earlier, but a 1927 POD isn't enough time for the eventual impact to make itself felt for WW2 (assuming it's on OTL schedule).
To directly answer your questions:
...but this will give Italy the advantge it needs to became decent power in 1939?
To be honest, no. This alone will not do it by 1939. Still far too much corruption and inefficiency to overcome. It might, with some financial butterflies, boost the industry and economy some, but better shipping still won't make trucks come off the line any faster. Eventually the containers will allow for more industrial expansion and financial changes, but it will take more than 12 years.
What about the impact on geopolitics if Italy became a mayor commercial power?
Well, you'd need more than just shipping improvements to become a "major commercial power". You'd need to improve the inefficient bureaucracy (which Fascist corporativism just made that much worse). You'd need some sort of real export markets, which save for some trade in vehicles and weapons Italy does not have at this time. And again, this alone doesn't allow you to build any more vehicles to export in the short term.
Surely it will spring an industrial revolution of sort, but it will be enough to better itlian performnce?
Immediate Revolution? No. Eventual Revolution, yes, but it'll take time to propagate. For the short term: potential improved shipping speed, but there are still so many economic/industrial deficiencies to overcome. The shipping may start the ball rolling in that regard, but you're still likely decades out before you see major changes from the "modular butterflies".
You improve the potential turnaround times in port, but only if the ports are efficiently run. Italy at the time had very poor port authority management. Ships would sit at anchor for days waiting to unload goods even when there were spots available simply because the harbor master didn't get word they were there or that spots were open. Now, assuming someone with a penchant for organization like Balbo takes notice... A little Castor oil at the right place can really get things moving.
What will be the impact of containers (MODULI, metallic stakable boxes, ITTL) on Barbarossa?
Probably not too much. Bigger impact on North Africa since shipping containers really make a bigger difference at seaports where there's so much more cargo per single vehicle. They'll allow quicker shifting of materials in rail yards, which will help some, but unloading and distributing goods from a container isn't that big of a difference from unloading them from a box car. No Axis truck at this point is likely to be able to haul a shipping container across the inadequate roads of Eastern Europe. You'll need to move crates into trucks or unload by hand no matter what.
What will be the impact of containers over european infrastructure?
As stated before this is an idea everyone else will eventually steal. Eventually every port in Europe and America and finally the world will be equipped with container cranes. Eventually (post war) major highways in the autobahn mold will see shipping containers on trucks, but the container tech alone doesn't automatically spur highway building. Probably through the war years it'll be containers unloaded from ships onto existing rail or barge networks for distribution to regional rail stations and canal ports, then hand- or forklift-load onto trucks for local distribution.
The eventual changes will be drastic and this will spur globalization that much earlier, but a 1927 POD isn't enough time for the eventual impact to make itself felt for WW2 (assuming it's on OTL schedule).
Tnx Geekhis, that makes alot of sense
I was intrested also in political butterflies, with this technology will it make sense for Italy to assume the role of universal middleman (NBHL gets credit to inspiring this idea, an informal italian exclave in ports around the world that makes profit from the patented relevant technologies, the way genoise and venetians used to do in the middle ages)?
If commerrce lobby grows strong enough will tihis change the alliance options of fascist Italy? Will the geopolitical aims (as in grand strategy) change?
Guarna
Tnx Geekhis, that makes alot of sense
I was intrested also in political butterflies, with this technology will it make sense for Italy to assume the role of universal middleman (NBHL gets credit to inspiring this idea, an informal italian exclave in ports around the world that makes profit from the patented relevant technologies, the way genoise and venetians used to do in the middle ages)?
If commerrce lobby grows strong enough will tihis change the alliance options of fascist Italy? Will the geopolitical aims (as in grand strategy) change?
Guarna
Italy probably doesn't become Universal Middleman due to their sheer economic limits, though they certainly start to gain ground as shipping facilitators in the Med. Italian shipping companies will gain fame and influence (and lucrative sales and training contracts), but the "world's transport middleman" approach really doesn't work in this era of protectionism, nationalism, and xenophobia. New York Port Authority (frex) might willingly buy the cranes and containers from Italy and hire the Italian company men to set up/train personnel for the new container-handling system, but it will in the end be run by Americans. Remember the panic in 2005 when the US tried to sell American port security contract to a Dubai firm? No way Isolationist America is going to hand over any port ops to Mussolini (though they'll hire enough Italian-Americans that Mussie could certainly find a sympathetic spy/mole/saboteur or two among the lot).
However, whatever Italian(s) invented the containers and/or the cranes and processes to handle them may get really rich on sales and licensing...or get really poor fighting in countless copyright infringement cases as every other company in the world starts taking the idea. This company/industrialist is certainly more influential, so perhaps the Industrialists and their Gov't allies gain more influence over Mussolini than OTL. Perhaps Fascist Italy slides more towards the Futurist/Technocrat and Capitalist factions and away from the Corporativist and Protectionist/Autarchic ones.
Still, the culture of business in Italy at the time was a "lets see what crap we can get away with selling the gov't" one, and that doesn't change immediately, so economically there's a slower economic growth than this technology will, ironically, spur in other nations. Oddly, in the long run this could hurt Italy as foreign nations utilize the technology sooner and more efficiently.
I don't see Mussie's strategy changing much here, however. He'll still want the Irredentist claims on Nice, Corsica, and Dalmatia still, colonial claims on Tunisia, Ethiopia, and eventually Chad to bridge them, and strategic claims in the Peloponnese/Dardonelles and the Gibraltar Straits. Maybe the latter take on a little more importance since sea trade has possibly increased in importance and efficiency--which puts them in conflict with the UK and France as OTL, and deeper into Germany's sphere. Perhaps the Navy and Merchant Marine gets a higher budget ATL, though no where near enough to make any real difference against the RN who perhaps loses a few more ships than OTL with minor butterflies in the Med and Pacific (perhaps ATL Malta falls, but that's about it).
Another novel...sorry.
Another novel...sorry.
Ho, well, what about France? Peraps the idea is still italian (so I can keep the name... Modulò/Modulì ) but a nation like France will surely benefit from this idea alot! Your idea about increasing maritime competition is really intresting, you think alliances in WW2 has any possibility of changing?
tnx Guarna
France will certainly benefit from the tech, as will the US, UK, Germany, and even possibly USSR.
Now, as to who best benefits and how much:
France likely gets the ball rolling in the 30s on Modular and with their better infrastructure and larger industry compared to Italy they'll benefit from this rather quickly bringing back goods from their colonies. Of course if they get their industry nationalized into stagnation like OTL this may be for naught. However, as a Liberal Republic where much smaller butterflies can cause a change in government than in Fascist-dominated Italy this could potentially shift France's government! Possibly at the most extreme to one that takes a more aggressive stance with Hitler and totally changes or eliminates WW2!
UK likely in the 30s as well. As a sea-based empire this could have dramatic and quick effects on their economy and industry. How this affects the government is hard to say, though their Parliament is somewhat less volatile than France's IIRC in terms of governments changing. I don't, for instance, see a Churchill government likely without war, though maybe Halifax to replace Chamberlain?
US will also benefit a lot from this and if you though they were a merchant marine power OTL...well OMG! Likely the 30s for the changes here too. More business connection to Italy with some potential diplomatic butterflies there, but not too much beyond OTL there. Politics...well, still likely see FDR. I doubt any major changes there.
Germany and USSR: with a smaller merchant marine, no overseas empires, and a much greater land transport reliance these two see much smaller butterflies. This will help the USSR in a Lend-Lease situation. At best for Germany a few more merchant carriers to absolutely not be used in conjunction with any sea mammals
. World Economy in general: won't stop the depression IMO, but may help mitigate some effects as the years progress. However, protectionism will limit the international economic butterflies of this more than they might in a freer trade environment.
Upon further consideration with this post, I'm seriously looking at France as the linchpin here. If the gov't goes as OTL then the changes are minor, but the rise of a more aggressive gov't regarding Hitler could cause serious changes. A lot depends on l'papillions de France: are they petit or grand?
I'm beginning to see some potential in the idea of a technocratic change in '30 France, antagonizing the other colonial powers with it's newfond economic explosion...
As You noted in the case of the italian inventor fighting in countless copyright infringement cases (as every other company in the world starts taking the idea) the poor guy will stand terrible chances as an italian citizen, on the other hand a Marseillais with italian ancestors would probably be in a way better position, possibly selling his patents to la Republique if he feels the international causes are getting out of hand...
another candidate will be Japan, what are the chances of a strategic partnership with France to take advantage of now extra redditive colonies, say, in China?
This idea will be extremely intresting if chinese-german relations remains warm, leading to a total change of alliances...
As You noted in the case of the italian inventor fighting in countless copyright infringement cases (as every other company in the world starts taking the idea) the poor guy will stand terrible chances as an italian citizen, on the other hand a Marseillais with italian ancestors would probably be in a way better position, possibly selling his patents to la Republique if he feels the international causes are getting out of hand...
another candidate will be Japan, what are the chances of a strategic partnership with France to take advantage of now extra redditive colonies, say, in China?
This idea will be extremely intresting if chinese-german relations remains warm, leading to a total change of alliances...
On the other hand to adopt it you need to be able to finance the infrastructure to build completely new ports or modify existing ones. You also have to handle the problem of unionised dockers wanting to unload ships the old fashion way so they could steal cargo.
Given the timing of the Great Depression I would say that you are looking at the mid thirties before it can really take off. By then WW2 is inevitable.
Sachyriel
Banned
How multivehicular are we talking here? Will there be an European Space Agency that uses them? Because then you could strap some guidance rockets to them and voila, Early Kinetic Strike Weaponry.
Everyone who said not world changing isn't thinking big enough. They're thinking oceans and rails... I'm thinking launch loops and lunar slingshots.
Everyone who said not world changing isn't thinking big enough. They're thinking oceans and rails... I'm thinking launch loops and lunar slingshots.
The infrastructure problems can be somewhat easened by introduction of electric cranes for ships, essentially creating (in terms of cargo-handling capacity) post-war super cargoliners somewhat earlier than OTL. Historically Swedish Johnson Lines Seattle-class was the first to use truly extensive electric crane outfit instead of traditional derricks.
But these electric cranes must be introduced in a worldwide scale, every major port must introduce them. andit's not onlny electric cranes, it's also ships that allow for efficient handling of containers via cranes. It's lorries and trains able to transport containers from the ports and to the ports - I mean, what's the purpose of everything being transported to ports, packed by hands into containers, packed into (new) ships by cranes sipped to (selected) ports able to unload the containers and then have them unpacked again by hand in the port?
Container transport suffers/gains from network effects, that is you require a huge amount of money invested in infrastructure to have a huge ntwork able to handle containered transportation, then the network will expand pretty much by itself as anyone participating will profit. The problem is the huge initial cost. And in case of Italy, the additional probem is that an international network is required.
However, what could easily be done is establishment of a containerized supply line for Libya.
Electric cranes onboard ships do not require installations in ports... As for container ships, container ships were for quite long converted from existing merchants and sometimes even by "jumboizing", by installing a new hull section for containers. For very long time containers formed only a part of ship's cargo load. Containers were and are unloaded also in ports not specialized in container traffic.
On the other hand OTL containers descended directly from american military logistics, ITTL Italy or France could have evolved it to respond some outremer enterprise, allowing a new class of retrofitted ships to carry and unload (by onboard cranes) modules on any port and a simpler retrofit on truks and train vagons to multimodally continue overland to final destination, largely reducing infrastructure issues.
On a side note, I belive the huge cost of retrofitting all this vectors will pay for itself over a cuple of years, dragghing leading countries out of the Great Depression.
If it begins as a francoitalian joint venture (possible in late twenties) the ploitical closness of this two leading countries will increase to the point of being a strategic alliance (the way suez channal worked for UK and franche in the '50) ?