Italy doesn't switch sides

If Italy stays in the war after 1943 as an Axis member (with or without Mussolini himself), the overall impact on the war is minimal. OTL, the defection was basically a wash for the alliances, since sizeable numbers of Italians continued on as German puppets in the Social Republic. The Italian peninsula is perfect for a fighting retreat by Axis forces without complete Italian participation anyway. In fact, if the Italians fought alongside the Germans in this stiff defense, the general opinion of Italy as co-equal with Germany and Japan in the Axis might be strengthened.

Germany itself will be overrun by the Wallies and Soviets at about the same time and that will end the war, even if the Italian front is a going concern. Then peace happens. Unless, the Soviets actually penetrated in to Northern Italy, I doubt they could make any case for dividing Italy into occupation zones including a soviet zone, but it is not out of the question that Italy could still be divided into US, French, and British zones, or that it could lose territory to France. However, it was apparent even in 1945 that Fascist Italy was not in the same league on the World War 2 Evil-o-Meter as Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan, so the Italians might get a fairly soft peace. I suspect Italy would quickly be reintegrated into western Europe.
 
The question might at most be when, not if, a coup succeeds.
If Mussolini musters the energy for it, he might immediately react on the very night of August 25, arrest the unfaithful party bosses, temporarily neutralize the King in some way, and, if barely, remain in the saddle.
This means the Allies start bombing Rome and other Italian cities in earnest. Avalanche goes ahead, and might be costlier, but it's very unlikely to fail altogether. If the Regia Marina intervenes, that's valiant and glorious, but it's a few more thousand Italian families hating the regime for at most some marginal damage to the Allied effort.
In short, there will be some general, probably Badoglio himself, scheming with the Royal Family if not the King himself, and contacting the Allies. Everything considered, this may well turn out to be an epic failure, and the Germans are likely to have reinforced the place by then anyway, and intervene. So yes, as somebody else mentioned, it's a (bigger) civil war.

That's not necessarily all that bad for the Allies. It will still require German attention. Dragoon will be at risk, but limited landings in Sardinia and Corsica can be done in place of Shingle. A slow advance up from Anzio can take place, even slower than OTL.

Come 1945, regardless of actual successes or lack thereof, Italy can claim to have fought against Mussolini and the Germans, i.e. on the Allied side.
 
I don't have the figures to hand, but all the Regia Navale ships and Regia Aeronautica aircraft that could sailed/flew to Allied territory to form the core of the Italia Co-belligerent forces that fought with the Allies. An Italian Co-belligerent army of several divisions was also built up, but for political reasons they weren't called divisions to play down the size of the Italian contribution to the Allied war effort.

I don't know about those political reasons (can you quote a source?), but as a matter of fact the Gruppi di combattimento counted on paper six infantry battalions and four artillery battalions, which is less than the paper strength of a small "binary" Italian division at the beginning of the war (this should have had 8 infantry battalions counting the Blackshirts). Additionally, on-paper strength was seldom reached, in particular with regard to artillery. On-paper personnel should have been some 9,000 men. A contemporary British infantry division had an on-paper strength (again these would also be significantly undermanned) of some 18,000 men. So there seems to be a reasonably practical reason not to call half of that a division.

The Gruppi di Combattimento were 6 in all.
 
I don't know about those political reasons (can you quote a source?), but as a matter of fact the Gruppi di combattimento counted on paper six infantry battalions and four artillery battalions, which is less than the paper strength of a small "binary" Italian division at the beginning of the war (this should have had 8 infantry battalions counting the Blackshirts). Additionally, on-paper strength was seldom reached, in particular with regard to artillery. On-paper personnel should have been some 9,000 men. A contemporary British infantry division had an on-paper strength (again these would also be significantly undermanned) of some 18,000 men. So there seems to be a reasonably practical reason not to call half of that a division.

The Gruppi di Combattimento were 6 in all.

IIRC it was in The Armed Forces of World War II, by Andrew Mollo, but I haven't had time to get my copy out and read it. I need to finish hoovering the house before I do.
 
I don't know about those political reasons (can you quote a source?), but as a matter of fact the Gruppi di combattimento counted on paper six infantry battalions and four artillery battalions, which is less than the paper strength of a small "binary" Italian division at the beginning of the war (this should have had 8 infantry battalions counting the Blackshirts). Additionally, on-paper strength was seldom reached, in particular with regard to artillery. On-paper personnel should have been some 9,000 men. A contemporary British infantry division had an on-paper strength (again these would also be significantly undermanned) of some 18,000 men. So there seems to be a reasonably practical reason not to call half of that a division.

The Gruppi di Combattimento were 6 in all.

This is a transcript from page 100 of, The Armed Forces of World War II, Uniforms, Insignia and Organisation, by Andrew Mollo, Copyright 1981, 1987 McDonald & Co (Publishers) Ltd and printed in Italy (appropriately).

Italian Co-Belligerent Forces

On 28 September 1943 the first military unit of the Kingdom of the South was constituted as the First Motorised Combat Group (1. Raggruppamento Motorizzato) with a strength of 295 officers and 5,387 men. Its first action was in the Casino sector at Monte Lungo, and did much to remove the Allied distrust of Italian soldiers fighting on their side.

Following service with the American 5th Army and re-organisation of the Raggruppamento was transferred to the Polish Army on the extreme left of the British 8th Army.

On 17th April 1944 the formation, now 22,000 men strong, assumed the name Italian Liberation Corps (Corpo Italiano di Liberazione). The continuous influx of volunteers made it necessary to form further formations, but for political reasons what had now become divisions were still called combat groups. Each Gruppi di Combattimento had two infantry and one artillery regiments, a mixed battalion of engineers, two sections of Carabineri and services totalling 400 officers and 9,000 men.

The first six of these groups entered the line at the beginning of 1945, but political considerations still meant that the Allies underscored the part played by Royalist troops in the victory in Italy.

The Italian Navy played an important role once the armistice was signed. Altogether 5 battleships, 8 cruisers, 33 destroyers, 39 submarines, 12 motor torpedo-boats, 22 escorts and 3 minelayers of the Regia Navale formed a Co-Belligerent Force. There were in addition 4 squadrons of seaplanes from the Regia Aeronautica. The Italian C-in-C established his headquarters in Taranto but 3 cruisers were soon detached to hunt for blockade runners in the South Atlantic. One of the force's most significant contributions during this period was its co-operation in the rehabilitation of Italian harbours. At the same time Italian frogmen joined British human-torpedo teams in sinking 2 cruisers and the aircraft carrier Aquila lying disabled in German-occupied ports.

The other major element of the Italian forces on the Italian side was, of course, the partisans; but they were un-standardised in organisation and uniform.

That is all it says about the Italian forces fighting with the Allies so I'll have go get my copy of Green and Fricker out for the Co-Belligerent Air Force.
 
Why not discuss the aftermath? That's the most interesting part of this scenario. What does an Allie-occupied Italy look like? How is it divided, if at all? Do we end up with two Italies just as we had two Germanies?
A more prestigious communist party? Or a longterm allied occupation more willing to stamp out any kind of dissent like that?
 
The Co-Belligerent Air Force

According to, The Air Forces of the World, Their History, Development and Present Strength, by William Green and John Fricker, published 1958 buy Macdonald & Co. (Publishers) Ltd, Page 175, a total of 246 Italian aircraft attempted to reach the Allied lines and 203 succeeded. This force was re-equipped with Spifires and Baltimoers and formed into a Fighter Group, a Bomber Group and a Transport Group, each of 3 wings, with headquarters at Leece, and a Seaplane Group with 3 wings with headquarters at Taranto. These units subsequently undertook 11,196 combat sorties in the Mediterranean and Balkan theatres, and also 9,022 transport missions, after Marshal Badoglio's government declared war on Germany on October 13, 1943.
 
Mussolini surviving in power even for a little while seems a considerable help to the Germans. Italy is providing occupation forces in France, Yugoslavia and Greece. The Italian fleet is still a considerable fleet in being that has to be at least considered by the Allies. Italian industry can still produce at full levels. Diplomatically Italy is still with the Axis which affects neutral attitudes.

The loss of the expeditionary force in the Soviet Union in December 1942 was probably the biggest one factor in Mussolini's ouster. Have a POD change this and perhaps he can remain around longer.
 
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