Italy doesn't join Triple Alliance

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Deleted member 1487

In 1882 Italy joined the Triple Alliance, mostly it seems out of anger over the French annexation of Tunisia. What if they decided not to rashly rush into this alliance and remain a 'free agent' in the Mediterranean? Would they end up an ally of France eventually or would they remain neutral until there was a war in Europe and sell their entry to the highest bidder? What does this mean for Italian foreign policy in the meantime? Do they become more cautious about foreign adventures or become more hostile toward Austria?

Assuming a WW1 similar to ours happens about the same time, how does Austria react, knowing that Italy is not an ally, even a less than faithful one?
 
Have Crispi government falling earlier in 1888 : OTL he had the time to put the "article 7" in treaties with AH, that the later, more well disposed towards France, italian government couldn't really deal off.

If, in the same time, Von Caprivi opinion prevails in Germany, and that Italia is more considered as "associated" to bilateral treaties than part of it, it could push Italy to search an agreement with UK rather than Central Powers.
 
A good opportunity came up in 1882: UK and France were planning an intervention in Egypt to protect their investments in the country after the Orabi coup of 1878 which had ousted the khedive. At the last moment France pulled out (IIRC because the government fell). The Gladstone ministry invited Italy to participate but after some hamming and hewing the Depretis ministry declined the opportunity and the British went in alone.

It would have been a good chance of strengthening the ties with UK and avoiding the diplomatic isolation of Italy. There was also a convenient fig leaf since there was a significant Italian presence in Alexandria and some investments in Egypt (though much less than the British and French ones) but internal politics and the disappointment with the outcome of the congress of Berlin resulted in a refusal. The intervention went in without a glitch so there was really no worry on the military or supply side. An Italian participation would have been likely to reap some economic benefits in Egypt (although Italy would have been a junior partner) and would certainly have resulted in a better Italo-British cooperation during the Mahdi revolt and possibly shared spheres of influence in Sudan. It would also derail Italy participation in the Triple alliance.
 
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