Italy Doesn't Join the Axis

[LordKalvan]

Mussolini was never in favor of Hitler until it became clear Germany was the only ally which would ensure Italian defense. Mussolini trie dot make a coalition of nations to go agaisnt Germany when it first set its sights upon Austria. This was ruined when the UK went behind the backs of France and Italy in making the Anglo-German Naval treaty. That right there allowed the British to feel safe, and at the same time showed Italy the two other strongest nations in Western Europe would not back them up if need be.

So in this what you really need is Italy never loosing that spirit against Germany. Fascism in its original form was seen very different from what is is lumped together with Nazism today. Mussolini had many well wishers in Europe, and given that Greece, Poland, Austria, Yugoslovia, and much of Europe had a dictator it was not the line in the sand many people make Democracies and Fascism have today.

The anglo-german naval treaty (June 1935) coming just a couple of months after the Stresa pact convinced everyone that UK would not give a fig about German rearmament provided that her interest were safeguarded.
To add insult to injury, 5 months later the British representative even managed (against the indication of the Foreign Office) to vote in favor of sanctions against Italy. It looked like a deliberate slap to Italy, and , notwithstanding some effort by the French to patch up the Stresa front, the best chance of stopping Germany was lost.

 

[Fenwick]

The anglo-german naval treaty (June 1935) coming just a couple of months after the Stresa pact convinced everyone that UK would not give a fig about German rearmament provided that her interest were safeguarded.
To add insult to injury, 5 months later the British representative even managed (against the indication of the Foreign Office) to vote in favor of sanctions against Italy. It looked like a deliberate slap to Italy, and , notwithstanding some effort by the French to patch up the Stresa front, the best chance of stopping Germany was lost.

Right and to secure such matters perhaps the best move is to have Italy avoid Ethiopia. The British and French almost fell overthemselves covering for Italy, in order to keep a possible ally against Germany. Of course once Germany looked to be merely righting the flaws in a peace treaty many in Britian and France took issue with, then italy became somewhat of a thug.

Italy is almost the player to ensure either no WWII, or an earlier and as such very shorter) WWII. Italy wanted its own little Empire, but at the same time wanted to be safe fromt hose around it. Germany was always the big threat to Mussolini, until his Western friends backed away. If Italy is around to keep making waves, and possibly back France we could see a war over Austria, or the Czechs.

 

[Markus]

Nasserism and variations thereof.

With Italy swimming in oil and coming out of the war unharmed Egypt better not try anything. The fascists will most likely show VERY little restraint towards a third world ruler who dares to PO them. After all they were utterly ruthless when dealing with guerillas in Ethiopia, Lybia and on the Balkans.

 

[DuQuense]

What stands in the way of Italy keeping Libya? The took that place even before WW1. Legally their claim is solid.

Nasserism and variations thereof.

With Italy swimming in oil and coming out of the war unharmed Egypt better not try anything. The fascists will most likely show VERY little restraint towards a third world ruler who dares to PO them. After all they were utterly ruthless when dealing with guerrillas in Ethiopia, Libya and on the Balkans.

I doubt if there will be Nasser. OTL - Pre War several of King Faisal's advisors were Italians, and they continued rite up till Egypt DoWed the Axis in 1944.
ITTL with Britain busy in Europe, I see Italy gaining even more Influence in Faisal's Court.
No Coup, as Egypt concentrates on the Sudan.

 

[Superftagn]

Without further deviation of reality from just not joining the Axis, wouldn't the most likely result be Italy being a neutral power friendly to Germany, selling to both sides?

And wouldn't Germany recognize the advantage in having a friend in Italy without having to divert tons of troops to secure it (recognize that it would be a weak ally)?

I mean with Italy neutral wouldn't the Germans be able to hold out a lot longer against the Allies?