Italy bought off by colonial territiry

The French had been floating proposals in 1940 to keep Italy out of the war:

Cede French Somaliland completely. Expand Libya at the expense of Chad and offer a Franco-Italian condominium over Tunisia.

Britain throws in long term cheap rates on Suez canal shipping and political concessions for Malta (Italian as a choice in schools etc..). Off the record Britain hints that depending on how the war goes and Italian behavoir therein, such places like Cyprus might be negotiable after the war.

Lets say Mussolini takes this offer and agrees to a long term peace treaty with France/Britain in exchange for the the territory.

Lets say the deal goes down on May 28th.

Questions:
1) Does Italy being out keep France in? This pretty much guarantees the French would hold on to Corsica and Algeria as continuing points of resistance against the Germans. And with continued world wide naval supremacy maye the French could convince themselves Britain would really stay in the war.
2) Does Germany just demand south Tyrol from Italy under threat of invasion in late 1940 and take it even further: later and demand Italy ceed Trieste and parts of Albania to Greece and Yugoslavia and maybe the Dodencease to Turkey (Germany cementing her diplomacy and economics with those countries).
3) Does this keep Japan out of the war (Britain has much less commitments and could assemble an impressive force in Singapore to keep the peace).
4) With an invasion that much harder (less British commitments overseas)Does Germany still attempt the Battle of Britain?
5) Does Germany still invade the Soviet Union and if it does does it do better or worse. With less other commitments would a British force appear on the eastern front / more Lend Lease / an invasion of Northern Norway or Finland?
6) Would Turkey agree to Lend Lease through the Black Sea making that so much easier.
 
italy was a bit backstabby before/during worldwar 1, so there's no reason not to invade. exchange the greek campaign for an italian one.

i remember that joke, something along the lines:
-my führer, the italians have declared war on us!
>damn, pitty for those 6 divisions
-none of our divisons have been anihilated yet.
>no,i meant the 6 divisions it would take to conquer italy :D
 
Italy's entry into the war had very little impact on the Battle of France, by the suggested date the first BEF had already begun its evacuation and the Germans were advancing on Paris and the Somme. It would have been too late to move troops from the Italian border and if they had tried they would have reached the front just in time for the surrender.
No desert campaign would ease the presure on Britain short term, but the western desert force would have eventually been used to secure Syria and Lebenon.

Without the constant need for tanks in the desert there would have been time once the invasion scare had passed to properly evaluate British tank design and hopefully avoid the waste of precious resources on mediocre machines such as the Covenator and Centaur. I would hope that with less pressure for tank production the Crusader would soon be phased out and the Cromwell produced instead.
 
Italy out of the War? You just gave the Germans a chance of winning. Without needing to come to Italy's aid, and with Italy being neutral and not a part of the allies, their is no way for the Americans and the Allies to launch an attack into Europe apart from Normandy or Greece. And I think that its likely Italy may donate some "volunteer" forces to help the Germans.
 
Lets say the deal goes down on May 28th.

Questions:
1) Does Italy being out keep France in? This pretty much guarantees the French would hold on to Corsica and Algeria as continuing points of resistance against the Germans. And with continued world wide naval supremacy maye the French could convince themselves Britain would really stay in the war.

As stated the French are done by now, so a neutral Italy will not change much...except more french jew sent on the death camps, as the italian occupation zone were basically safe zone for them, at least till 43. On the other side without the damocles sword on Algeria of an italian invasion and the prospect to fight even a naval war, there is a slim change that the French goverment will try the transfer to Algeri and continue the fight...but is not the most probable outcome.

2) Does Germany just demand south Tyrol from Italy under threat of invasion in late 1940 and take it even further: later and demand Italy ceed Trieste and parts of Albania to Greece and Yugoslavia and maybe the Dodencease to Turkey (Germany cementing her diplomacy and economics with those countries).

No, for one thing Italian neutrality favor them and frankly thery were not very happy to the italian declaration of war, second that kind of demand are basically a declaration of war against the Kingdom of Italy and before someone say that the Germans simply cumberstom the italians, take in considerations that the Luftwaffe will be occupied with the Battle of Britain and the Alps severly hinder the attackers, so Uncle Adolf will probably left things as they are and live happy.

3) Does this keep Japan out of the war (Britain has much less commitments and could assemble an impressive force in Singapore to keep the peace).

No, Japan was between the rock and a hard place with the war in China and the oncoming american sanction; for their goverment war was now the only option there will be an attack; but with no East and NOrth African campaign things will be harder for the Japanese, as more men and more modern material will be avaible; Singapore can realistically resist but a Japan that not get the victory disease and start to believe their own propaganda can be a worse enemy than OTL.
Now there will not be a Taranto raid so PH can be butterflyed away and the japanese will probably concentrate their effort to the Philippines

4) With an invasion that much harder (less British commitments overseas)Does Germany still attempt the Battle of Britain?

Oh yeah, after all Britain is a giant knife pointed to the Reich, it must be neutralized

5) Does Germany still invade the Soviet Union

Is the Pope catholic?

and if it does does it do better or worse. With less other commitments would a British force appear on the eastern front / more Lend Lease / an invasion of Northern Norway or Finland?

It's difficult, without other commitment the UK can try some move to relieve pressure from the soviet...and Churcill was the type who will favor things like this, image a series of Dieppe raid; on the other hand the Nazi now can attack Russia when they want and with more troops as there is now African, Greece and Yugoslavian campaign (now Rommel with his force and the paratroopers can be deployed in the Eastern Front)

6) Would Turkey agree to Lend Lease through the Black Sea making that so much easier.

Turkey will follow OTL path they are not in the shape to partecipate in the conflict and they know it
 
Italy out of the War? You just gave the Germans a chance of winning. Without needing to come to Italy's aid, and with Italy being neutral and not a part of the allies, their is no way for the Americans and the Allies to launch an attack into Europe apart from Normandy or Greece. And I think that its likely Italy may donate some "volunteer" forces to help the Germans.

Yes, Italy might donate a motivated "blue division" or even a corps to Russia. The German economy might be better off without having to support Italy (and Italy would be another conduit to trade through).

The downsides to this would be that Britain has no commitments overseas and has a much better shipping situation with the mediteranean sea open. Massive Lend Lease aid could come sooner and in greater quanities for the Soviets. Maybe in the October 1941 dark days the Soviets allow a "flying tigers" squadron of British Spitfires to fly top cover over Moscow.

The Soviets may also be expecting an invasion since there really is not mediteranean option or anything else better for the Germans to do but invade.

Some of the destoyers and fast mine layers reinforcing malta could be escorting convoys in the Atlantic. Maybe an aircraft carrier flying top cover from time to time.

Worst case if the Germans have an extra arnmored corps available I could see Leningrad completely sealed off (no sea route across the ice) and the German getting into Moscow suburbs but thats about it. Increased Lend Lease aid makes 1942 a wash and by 1943 the Germans may be worse off depending on what U.S involvment is.
 
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Lets say the deal goes down on May 28th.


As stated the French are done by now, so a neutral Italy will not change much...except more french jew sent on the death camps, as the italian occupation zone were basically safe zone for them, at least till 43. On the other side without the damocles sword on Algeria of an italian invasion and the prospect to fight even a naval war, there is a slim change that the French goverment will try the transfer to Algeri and continue the fight...but is not the most probable outcome.

At the very least the British would have the capability to pick on Vichy colonies more (or on the other hand there may be less of a need to pick a fight with Vichy and less paranoia about having to secure its naval units right away).

No, Japan was between the rock and a hard place with the war in China and the oncoming american sanction; for their goverment war was now the only option there will be an attack; but with no East and NOrth African campaign things will be harder for the Japanese, as more men and more modern material will be avaible; Singapore can realistically resist but a Japan that not get the victory disease and start to believe their own propaganda can be a worse enemy than OTL.
Now there will not be a Taranto raid so PH can be butterflyed away and the japanese will probably concentrate their effort to the Philippines

The condition of French Indochina could change all this. If Free French, it could resist the Japanese invasions that started in September 1940. The rail line to southern China is open a strong British force is at Singapore and the Japanese are in a world of hurt with little they can do to get out of it.
 
The Pearl Harbour attack would still happen, as Japan faces the same stratgic situation. They need access to the oil and rubber in Malaya, Borneo and the Dutch East Indies. To sieze these resources they have to sieze the US Colony in the Philippines which means they have to knock out the US Pacific Fleet. They also need to act before a) they run out of fuel and b) the US fleet is masively reinforced when the capital ships now being built are completed. It's a lot easier to cripple a fleet if you attack them in port and the easiest way to do that is with aircraft. As the Japanese were British allies in WWI and their Naval Airforce was initialy trained by Veterans of the Royal Naval Air Service they would be aware of the British plan to attack the High Seas Fleet in 1919 with carrier launched torpedo bombers.
 
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