Italy attacks Germany in 1940

I'm not sure if this belongs here or in ASB due to the lack of reasoning behind an Italian attack on Germany, but I'm putting it here.

For some reason (let's say Italy thinks they can get Austrian land, and the allies agree to let Italy do whatever it wants in the Balkans? Reach I know), Italy attacks Germany the day after Germany invades Denmark. No declaration of war or warning is launched. The attack into Austria is a complete suprise.

I know that Italy cannot take much land from Germany even with a suprise attack, but how does this affect the war.
 
Well, I suppose that Italy won't actually make much foray into Austria. The terrain will allow an easy defense.

Also, I doubt that Italy could manage a complete surprise towards Germany.

Nevertheless, the consequences for the Allies would be very different. Even if the attack against France & Benelux works similar to OTL and is similarly successful, France might just opt to stay in the war for longer, or even infinitely. If it decided to fight on, they could organize a retreat of French Forces towards Italy and might even be able to hold on to a pocket of Southeastern France for some time, maybe along the Rhone, or rather within the Alps.

If Germany is still vigorous enough to push against Italy soon, the situation might be something of a super-Greece. Churchill could pour most of the troops destined for Egypt into Italy. It is up to your taste how far the Wehrmacht would manage to push southwards. All the way down? Or would they get stuck somewhere?

Would there be a Battle of Britain? This is at least doubtful.

Also, the Pacific would be affected. With the Med being an Allied lake (even if Italy should get blitzed), the Royal Navy would be able to give the Pacific Ocean more of its reserves, and earlier.

Yugoslavia might find itself in the Axis camp if it seems promising enough at a certain time. After all, Italy was the country they had the most issues with concering their borders.

And in the end the big question: what does it all mean concerning "Barbarossa"....

And by the way, Rommel might make himself a name as the "snow-fox", returning to the Alpine terrain he knew so well during WW1.
 
"Mein Fuhrer the Italians are invading!"

"What? Damn it! What a waste of six divisions!"

"You mean six divisions are going to be destroyed?"

"No Dummkopf! That's how many we'll need to occupy the country."

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The Italians couldn't handle the Greeks and their going to invade Germany? Yeah, that's going to end well.
 

Vladimir

Banned
The Italians attacked Southern France as the Germans were nearly done overrunning the country, yet they suffered a humiliating defeat by the French, who held them off in large part due to the terrain of the Alps, similar to the mountainous terrain of Austria. The Italians also suffered bloody defeats against the poorly-armed Greeks, who also used Austrian-like terrain to their advantage. If the Italians couldn't defeat the the third-rate Greek Army or the crumbling French Army in terrain highly similar to what they would have to face in the invasion of Austria, just imagine what the most powerful army in Europe at the time could have done to them.

German moles in Italy might find out about it beforehand, and Germany might increase its spying on Italy after troop concentrations near the border are detected, though it was so preoccupied with other fronts it might not notice. If the Germans caught wind if it, they would probably just roll right into Italy and occupy the country before the invasion was scheduled to begin, given their history (they violated the Franco-German armistice and rolled into Vichy France to take control of navy ships in Toulon, despite meek protests by the Vichy government). If the Italians managed to keep it secret, they would gain a little ground before being stopped and then met with a crushing counterattack. They would have been quickly driven out with heavy losses. The Germans would quickly invade and occupy Italy, and would not need too much military power in crushing the Italian military.

Even if this action is coordinated with the Allies, the Allied cause was struggling for survival and Germany was at the height of its power in 1940. There would be no way to transport Allied troops to Italy in any meaningful force before Italy is completely overrun. The Royal Navy squadrons in the Mediterranean had their hands full fighting the Battle of the Mediterranean, though no more Italian Navy to challenge them would be a relief. If the invasion starts before the Battle of the Mediterranean does, the Allies were still tied up in North Africa, though the Royal Navy could have sent warships to bombard the invaders and carriers for air support, though they might not take the risk due to German air power. Even if they do, the Germans still overrun Italy.

The British might be worried about Italian warships in German hands. The Royal Navy might just sail into Italian ports and destroy their navy as the country falls, or if the Italian Navy scatters to neutral ports, the British might just sail into those ports and deliver Mers el-Kebir-like terms. On the other hand, the Italians might scuttle their ships, like the French did at Toulon.

If the British don't intervene and if the Italians don't scuttle, Italy's warships in the hands of the competent and professional Kriegsmarine might prove a daunting challenge, especially as they will remain a threat after the time when Italy would have surrendered in OTL (if they are not sunk by then).

Giving Italy's military history during the war, such a move would be utterly stupid and suicidal.
 
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An Italian attack on Germany let's say is a little 'improbable' without an earlier PoD...but nevertheless, yes an italian attack throug Austria is very very difficult for the same reason that the attack on France was a failure...but the contrary is also true.
A German land counterattack will be really difficult and costly, the vautend panzer are basically an hinderance and Benny just to be sure added a defensive line on the German border, the italian campaign demonstrated that the territory vastly favor the defender and the Nazi don't have at the time so much resource to waste as all was basically used to attack France and to occupy Poland. Even in case of success the course of the war will be very different, depending if there is a VIchy-like goverment or a goverment-in-exile/Free Italy analogue (probably Balbo in Libya) the North Africa campaign is butterflyed away and the Meditterean is a British lake as the German Navy don't have the power to wrestle the control of this theatre from the RN, the Regia Marina will probably sail for Libya when/if Italy is occupied; the east-african theatre will not exist as the possibility that the Duke of Aosta follow the order of a quisling goverment are very very low.
 
Had Hitler been clearly winning, maybe a well planned equivalant of blitzkrieg hitting Germany in the first week of sept 1939 I could see italy attacking Germany

I do not see it being of great material assistance
 
I think that military wise, Italy was too weak to even do anything substancial to Germany. So, allin all, the out come would have not changed
 
Even in case of success the course of the war will be very different, depending if there is a VIchy-like goverment or a goverment-in-exile/Free Italy analogue (probably Balbo in Libya) the North Africa campaign is butterflyed away and the Meditterean is a British lake as the German Navy don't have the power to wrestle the control of this theatre from the RN, the Regia Marina will probably sail for Libya when/if Italy is occupied; the east-african theatre will not exist as the possibility that the Duke of Aosta follow the order of a quisling goverment are very very low.

I very much agree with Luke Dalton here. Yes, Italy is only....err....Italy. But even the Germans cannot do everything at the same time.

Contrary to 1943, the Italian Army wouldn't already have been beaten, and contrary to 1943, it would at least not be positioned on the wrong side of the country. Well, at least some of it.

So, Hitler has to decide which ally to give priority. Given that Italy is perceived to be the easier target and his rage about the Axis-partner's betrayal ("twice in one generrrration!"), I am very sure that there is a high probability for an "Italy-first" strategy for the spring/summer of 1940. Some general staffers might voice concerns that trying to go all the way down the peninsula might be a matter of overstretch, leaving open a multitude of flanks, but they will get brushed aside.

However, we should also bear in mind that before the battle of France, this is not yet the time for Barbarossa-ish Mega-Blitzkrieg-planning (a work in progress as a concept still), so the initial German campaign would be a plan to destroy as much of the Italian Army North of the Apennines and get hold of Italy's industrial core there before seeing what might be the next step.

France and Britain would try to move in à la Norway, ultimately not too successful probably, but the outcome would be better than OTL. France would at least bring itself into the very best frontline available on the Alps, but probably try to support the Italians in denying Torino and Genua to the Germans (though Milano is probably out of reach quickly).

With France and Britain still in the war, an Italian government would not be prone to capitulate too quickly (I can imagine it falling apart rather). In any case, the British have OTL proven that they would do everything to not let the Italian Navy get into the wrong hands. And as helpless as we would probably find them in stopping the Germans anyway on the mainland, as apt would they be to persuade the Italian colonies to remain on the Allied side. Same would go for Sardinia and Sicily. The latter might come into the German range of power-projection late in 1940, but battling that one out would lead to losses which will be felt later, especially when it comes to paratrooper-equipment. Sardinia would be a folly to attack for the Germans until they would have dealt with France successfully. And trust me, this timeline will not see an Afrikakorps.

Even if Germany subdues Italy within a few weeks during the early summer of 1940, the attack in the West has to be postponed. In order to be successful in Italy, Germany has to bring up -and risk- the best of its material. After that campaign, it has to be brought back into shape, reshuffled and so on. The campaign in the West would not occur prior to late summer or even later. This might be valuable time especially for France. Observing the campaign in Italy will push the French one or two notches up their learning curve in order to understand the German doctrines, especially if there have been encounters with German forces in Northwestern Italy.

The Sichelschnitt - operation was close to a gamble which paid off in an optimal way in OTL. It can only get worse for the Germans. So even if they prove superior to the Allies ITTL as well, they might be unable to break France before autumn and winter turn the campaign into a far bloodier and costlier campaign, encouraging the French government not to surrender, especially after the Med has been turned into a hard to break Allied stronghold over the course of the year.

And, please bear in mind, that is only IF France falls.

It will be a very different WW2.
 
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"Mein Fuhrer the Italians are invading!"

"What? Damn it! What a waste of six divisions!"

"You mean six divisions are going to be destroyed?"

"No Dummkopf! That's how many we'll need to occupy the country."

-----------

The Italians couldn't handle the Greeks and their going to invade Germany? Yeah, that's going to end well.


IOTL the joke was like this:

1940. The OKH gets a message.
"General Halder, Italy started an Invasion!"
"Hm, then we will send 5 divisions to beat them back!"
"No, they invaded France, they are our allies!"
"Oh no, this means we will have to send them 20 divisions as back-up!"
 
"Mein Fuhrer the Italians are invading!"

"What? Damn it! What a waste of six divisions!"

"You mean six divisions are going to be destroyed?"

"No Dummkopf! That's how many we'll need to occupy the country."

-----------

The Italians couldn't handle the Greeks and their going to invade Germany? Yeah, that's going to end well.
Hell , they couldn't even beat the Ethiopians.
 
This is so much better for the Anschluss Crisis when Italy was actually much, much more powerful than Germany and likely would have won a war over Austria.

In 1940 they're throwing themselves stupidly at a nation that will eventually crush them, but in the meantime, it's a dream come true for the Allies.
 
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