Italy Annexes Tunisia in 1881 - Effects on Italy in the 20th Century

[NOMISYRRUC]

Although Tunisia was a French protectorate Italy played a significant part in the development of the Tunisian economy. Tunisia had a significant Italian population, for example according to the 1936 census nearly 50% of its European population was Italian.

I found a quote on the internet along the lines that Tunisia was an Italian colony administered by the French.

What if it had been an Italian colony administered by the Italians?

Originally I thought of it as a way of making it easier for the Axis to hold North Africa in World War II. However, looking at some of the earlier threads on this it might satisfy Italy's colonial ambitions or it might make it even hungrier for more, either of which would attract butterflies.

 

[thekingsguard]

Well, if Italy can hold both Tunisia and Libya, I imagine its ambitions to create an Italian "Fourth Shore" might well have been fulfilled.

Italy was always somewhat unique in with the large numbers of settlers sent to its colonies, and Tunisia could end up the crown gem of its settler's colonies.

It's right across the straights from Sicily. Good land, small population for the time. Historic Italian presence dating back to the Punic Wars. Plus, the opportunity for Italy to play up its Roman roots by rebuilding Carthage.

 

[Neoteros]

Well, if Italy can hold both Tunisia and Libya, I imagine its ambitions to create an Italian "Fourth Shore" might well have been fulfilled.

Italy was always somewhat unique in with the large numbers of settlers sent to its colonies, and Tunisia could end up the crown gem of its settler's colonies.

It's right across the straights from Sicily. Good land, small population for the time. Historic Italian presence dating back to the Punic Wars. Plus, the opportunity for Italy to play up its Roman roots by rebuilding Carthage.

Destroying Tunis and scattering salt on its ruins would make more sense, from a historical standpoint.

But, well, rebuilding Carthage would've been a much better move, the kind of thing the Tunisians themselves would probably have approved of, if they'd been allowed to live in the new Carthage along with the Italian settlers of course - but I don't think the average politician in late 19th century Italy gave much of a damn about treating everyone equally, since most of them viewed the majority of the population of their own country as little better than uncultured barbarians.

 

[lukedalton]

Well the thread need to be moved to pre-1900 forum as an italian Tunisia create some pretty heavy butterfly.
The important things it's how Italy get his hand on the place; some pretty diplomatic skill at Berlin in 1978? Maybe a move to weak and isolate France more by the German and the British (in this case willingly enough to allow a single power to hold both side of the Sicily straits).
France and Italy are in a better diplomatic situation maybe even ally...or simply Rome fearing correctly French intention, beat them in effectively control the place and Paris decide that the place it's not worth a war (but a lot of sabrerattling yeah).

Annex the place it's probably out of the question, the more probable thing (even to keep the British ire at minimum) will be an agreement like the French had OTL aka at least formal Ottoman control.

Having TUnisia and keeping the butterfly net, mean at least less economic problem with the commercial war with France (will still happen due to Paris really not liking the italian move and Crispi being in power) and a place were some more of our emigrants can go.
I doubt there will be many incentive to an aggressive colonial politics (no humiliation to avenge and a lot of resources will go to Tunisia developement), probably just OTL Eritrea and Somalia and Abyssinia will be left more or less alone.

 

[LordKalvan]

It's a bit difficult for Italy to get Tunisia at the Congress of Berlin where it was substantially isolated (France obviously covets it, UK wouldn't like the same nation controlling both shores of the Channel of Sicily, Bismarck is still funneling French ambitions toward colonial expansion rather than plans of revanche in Europe, Austria would gladly cut its nose rather than supporting Italian objectives, Russia has no interest in the matter and other big worries to deal with).
IMHO the best possibility would be some kind of incident affecting Italian interests in Tunisia (riots, piracy, arresting Italian expats, the list can go on) in the 1870s: the earlier the better. Send a few gunboats and some regiments, impose punitive damages and leave a resident in Tunis to advise the bey (still formally recognizing Ottoman suzerainty). It's the age of gunboat policy and Tunisia is less than 100 miles from Sicily: France may grumble, Austria will protest and the British will be frosty for a time, but no one will go to war for Tunisia. The Italian protectorate will be formally recognised at the Congress of Berlin (possession is 95% of law).

A successful protectorate in Tunisia will change a lot of things in Italian history during the last 20 odd years of the 19th century (better economics and most likely no first war of Ethiopia, as others have said, but I would believe that there would be a high likelihood of Italy intervening in Egypt together with the British, which would also result in a further joint intervention against the Mahdi in Sudan. There is also a strong possibility that Italy will not enter in the CP alliance in 1881: this would have beneficial effects in Italo-French relations too).