Italy annexes the whole of Abyssinia in the 1890s

Italy manages to conquer the whole of Abyssinia and consolidates its rule by the First World War.
What political, economic and demographic consequences does this have on Abyssinia, Italy and the rest of the world.
 
I see several things happening to Abyssinia:

1. For one this almost certainly means the end of the position of Emperor. The prestige of the Neguse Negest was largely due to the policies of centralization and conquest carried out by Tewodros II and Menelik II. Assuming a POD around the Battle of Adwa, Menelik will still be Emperor and all of that work will be undone. Even when region gains independence, the line of Solomon won't be there to lead it when it does.

2. The Italians will try to play the major ethnic groups off of one another, so this may lead to a lot more infighting between Oromo, Amhara, and Tigrinya than even takes place in OTL today. It may also mean smaller ethnic groups like the Afar and the Beta Israel will get thrown under the bus.

3. Ogaden will not be administered as part of Abyssinia nor will it be a part of Abyssinia come independence. Being largely Somali the Italians will administer it as part of their Somalian territories. The Ogaden even being considered part of Abyssinia is largely due to the conquests of Tewodros II and Menelik II, so there isn't much of a precedent for that region to see itelf as Ethiopian.

4. There will be attempts by the Roman Catholic Church to make inroads in Abyssinia on a scale that hasn't been seen since the Emperor Susenyos. Its success will be mixed, but Catholicism will quickly be associated with the colonizers and Ethiopian Orthodoxy and Islam with the colonized. This could interestingly enough lead to a more secular Ethiopia, as opposition to Catholicism might drive the Orthodox and Muslims together, at least long enough to gain independence. Something like that may even be strong enough to mitigate the strife caused by (2).

5. There are a number of things about Ethiopian culture that will be suppressed by the Italians for the sake of administration. For example, the Ethiopian calendar is about 7 years behind the West's and has 13 months, and when an Ethiopian tells you it's 6 o'clock they mean it's midnight (and vice versa). I can see the latter completely disappearing from Abyssinia, though the former will almost certainly continue to exist in a religious context.

6. Amharic, Oromo, Tigrinya and the various Ethiopian languages will have a lot more Italian loanwords, though I don't see Italian cuisine having too much of an influence. Ethiopian food is too tied in to both the region and culture of the region for that to change substantially. However I could see the Ethiopian coffee ceremony become more popular in Italy.
 
Taking in consideration a victory at Adua with added the death of the Emperor in the battle we can have the scenario were Italy transform Abyssinia in a proper protectorate (total annexation will be too complicated) with Tigri and Ogaden being given to Eritrea and Somalia respectively.

Internally mean that the Cripsi goverment will have a new lease of life, as the war was much a distraction for the huge financial scandal, it will be not very good, the man who's a proto-duce and big francophobe, expect any rapprochment with France delayed till his death (in OTL died 5 years later) if he still in power and relationship with Germany and A-h continue to be at their high (in relation with Austria-Hungary it mean that we talk to each others in a civil manner).
The victory will also mean that the Presidente del Consiglio (basically italian prime ministers) will have much more free hand regarding foreign politics...OTL defeat plus the expedition in China to quell the boxer rebellion basically killed that notion

Internationally, well immediately i doubt that the italian troops will leave Kassala (a Sudanese city captured in 1894 from Madhist troops who used it for mounting raid in Eritrea) as in OTL the defeat at Adua and the suggesive general retreat killed any notion to keep it as a fait accomplit.
I doubt that the British will take any serious action about it, but it will not make them very happy diplomatically speaking.
Libya will be continued to be pursuit, even more due to the success in the horn of Africa, but is very probable that the Porte offer a deal similar to the Tunisia/Bosnia one (takeover of the administration and de-facto control but the Ottoman Empire mantain dejure possession) as there is no defeat to avenge, in that case the Balkan war can be delayed or the perfomance of the Ottoman army will be much better due to the avoided war.
 
Well for starters, Italy would need to commit more troops than it did IOTL. Common wisdom would suggest that after a victory at Adowa, the Italians wouldn't invade Lybia, but somehow I don't think sucess at a colonial adventure would mean the Italians wouldn't do another onw.
 
Italian Ethiopia could also compete with Anglo-Khedival Egypt for control over South Sudan, Uganda, and any other areas Catholic missionaries tied to Italian Ethiopia compete over Muslim and Anglican missionaries.

I also, though, think the troops and resources needed to properly pacify Ethiopia expel any Italian adventures in Libya. Par contre, having another European power compete with the British could lead to an understanding of sorts between the Italians and the Turks...
 
Italian Ethiopia could also compete with Anglo-Khedival Egypt for control over South Sudan, Uganda, and any other areas Catholic missionaries tied to Italian Ethiopia compete over Muslim and Anglican missionaries.

I also, though, think the troops and resources needed to properly pacify Ethiopia expel any Italian adventures in Libya. Par contre, having another European power compete with the British could lead to an understanding of sorts between the Italians and the Turks...

I don't think that Italy would be either willing or able to compete with the British significantly, with the exception of relatively minor border areas. There were some competing claims IOTL (most notably Kisimayo and Kassala, the latter already noted) but I seriously doubt that Italy would press for much more in the British sphere of interests. Maybe Qallabat and Fazogli in Sudan, but the British might be easily willing to concede both, maybe in exchange for Kassala.
Italy would try to get as many spoils of the Ottomans as she can anyway. And she would be possibly more tied into the Triple Alliance, something that would have significant repercussions down the line, although if the Bosnian Crisis happens in a OTL-like way (a big if), relationships with Austria would be very seriously strained no matter what. Also, Italy would still have reason to side with France in the Moroccan question.

In general, Ethiopia would be very though a nut to crack for Italy, even assuming a very succesful campaign in place of the one that led to Adowa IOTL (Adowa itself is too late a POD I believe. The strategic advantage for the Ethiopians at that point was considerable, even if the Italian didn't blunder big time, that battle could have been a tactical draw in the best case - best for Italian forces I mean).
 
This may mean in the long run that there would be no Ethiopia/Eritrea split, since they would be accustomed to being under the same government. That would benefit Ethiopia by not only avoiding the 30-year conflict but also by giving it access to the sea.

Meanwhile, Italy would probably have a significant Ethiopian immigrant population today, which could mean very different race relations (either for better or worse - could go either way) and perhaps a healthier national birth rate.
 
This may mean in the long run that there would be no Ethiopia/Eritrea split, since they would be accustomed to being under the same government. That would benefit Ethiopia by not only avoiding the 30-year conflict but also by giving it access to the sea.

i don't know, the Eritreans will be greatly favored by the italian colonial authorities as they were our version of the Gurka and is probable that this will cause problems in the long run; plus the Tigri region will be separate from Abyssinia and given in administration to Eritrea, so to make the region more easy to control.
 
i don't know, the Eritreans will be greatly favored by the italian colonial authorities as they were our version of the Gurka and is probable that this will cause problems in the long run; plus the Tigri region will be separate from Abyssinia and given in administration to Eritrea, so to make the region more easy to control.

But a lot of the major issues of identity would be butterflied away by such an early conquest of Abyssinia. Eritrea only fully became an Italian colony after the treaty with Menelik not too long before Adwa, and if he is deposed and the whole of Abyssinia is conquered then there won't be enough time for the preferential treatment to set in. Yes, Tigray will be administered along with Eritrea, but that may mean that locals see it as part of Ethiopia anyway, since in their eyes the only reason the Italians got control of the entire coast is because Menelik "let them" while still negus of Shewa. Also, following the example of how Italian East Africa was set up the Italians themselves may not make much of a distinction.

It's possible that due to its strategic position on the Red Sea, *Eritrea would get heavier investment, but again if Italian East Africa is anything to go by the Italians will be just as interested in developing the interior, and their seat of power will probably be either Addis Abeba, Gondar, or Harer. This means that another ethnic group may become preferred because they will be more useful in controlling these regions. I'm looking at you, Oromo.
 
But a lot of the major issues of identity would be butterflied away by such an early conquest of Abyssinia. Eritrea only fully became an Italian colony after the treaty with Menelik not too long before Adwa, and if he is deposed and the whole of Abyssinia is conquered then there won't be enough time for the preferential treatment to set in. Yes, Tigray will be administered along with Eritrea, but that may mean that locals see it as part of Ethiopia anyway, since in their eyes the only reason the Italians got control of the entire coast is because Menelik "let them" while still negus of Shewa. Also, following the example of how Italian East Africa was set up the Italians themselves may not make much of a distinction.

It's possible that due to its strategic position on the Red Sea, *Eritrea would get heavier investment, but again if Italian East Africa is anything to go by the Italians will be just as interested in developing the interior, and their seat of power will probably be either Addis Abeba, Gondar, or Harer. This means that another ethnic group may become preferred because they will be more useful in controlling these regions. I'm looking at you, Oromo.

I think the Italians will still do what most colonial powers did, play favourites with a numerically smaller ethnicity. Elevating formerly oppressed ethnicities into the lower civil service could also work, as said ethnicity would become loyal to Italy Trying to foster tribal rivalries was a tactic used by most colonial powers. Using the Muslim minorities against former Coptic rulers seems highly plausible.
 
I think the Italians will still do what most colonial powers did, play favourites with a numerically smaller ethnicity. Elevating formerly oppressed ethnicities into the lower civil service could also work, as said ethnicity would become loyal to Italy Trying to foster tribal rivalries was a tactic used by most colonial powers. Using the Muslim minorities against former Coptic rulers seems highly plausible.

I agree with all of this, the only thing I was disputing was that this would result in an Ethiopian-Eritrean divide like it did OTL. I think it's too early for that to take place and that other minorities like the Oromo may fill the role better.

But what would the political repercussions be of such a move back home. The Church could make a huge stink about the fact that Mohammedans are being used to rule over fellow (albeit heretical) Christians. How would that affect the Crispi government and what parties might take advantage of such a situation?
 
Italy manages to conquer the whole of Abyssinia and consolidates its rule by the First World War.
What political, economic and demographic consequences does this have on Abyssinia, Italy and the rest of the world.

There is no way Italy can win vs Abyssinia before tank and aircraft warfare. The amount that Abyssinia resources can muster is just too much for what Italy can muster at the time period within the area. The tech/sophistication difference also is not that big compared to OTL 1930s.
 
There is no way Italy can win vs Abyssinia before tank and aircraft warfare. The amount that Abyssinia resources can muster is just too much for what Italy can muster at the time period within the area. The tech/sophistication difference also is not that big compared to OTL 1930s.

You make some good points, but I think this is where the "divide and conquer" strategy comes into play. It's worth remembering that Italy secured control over the entire Eritrean coast in part because of the treaty it made with Menelik while he was still Negus of Shewa. Ethiopia is not without a large group of discontented peoples and disgruntled nobility who would benefit from Western benefactors. After a sufficiently jarring victory, say one where Menelik dies at Adwa, then there may be a Zemene Mesafint-sized power vacuum the Italians can fill up.
 
I agree with all of this, the only thing I was disputing was that this would result in an Ethiopian-Eritrean divide like it did OTL. I think it's too early for that to take place and that other minorities like the Oromo may fill the role better.

But what would the political repercussions be of such a move back home. The Church could make a huge stink about the fact that Mohammedans are being used to rule over fellow (albeit heretical) Christians. How would that affect the Crispi government and what parties might take advantage of such a situation?

The Italian government had poor relations with the Catholic church pre-1929. In fact it was quite anti-clerical because of the Pope's attitude toward the Italian state. The papacy for it part instructed Italian Catholics to not vote in Italian parliamentary elections.

Besides, I don't think using one group against another would come about so quickly. It would have to evolve over time, as the Italians began to mythologize one group as a "warrior people" or something of that sort. Also, I can't imagine there being any non-Italians in the miniscule civil service until at least the 1920s or 1930s.
 
You make some good points, but I think this is where the "divide and conquer" strategy comes into play. It's worth remembering that Italy secured control over the entire Eritrean coast in part because of the treaty it made with Menelik while he was still Negus of Shewa. Ethiopia is not without a large group of discontented peoples and disgruntled nobility who would benefit from Western benefactors. After a sufficiently jarring victory, say one where Menelik dies at Adwa, then there may be a Zemene Mesafint-sized power vacuum the Italians can fill up.

Which comes back to the point of how much resource can Italy muster even vs a divided ethiopia. There is almost tech parity between Italy and whoever is fighting for ethiopia.

Even if Menelik dies, that whole Italian army would be slaughtered. I cannot think of away of an almost tech/organization parity opponent fighting 10 times their size and still wins that battle and war.

Eventually those body bags will fill the streets of Italy with complaints/protests. There may be civil war in ethiopia looming but there is no way Italy would send another expedition after that battle nor Italians signing up for that.
 
I agree with all of this, the only thing I was disputing was that this would result in an Ethiopian-Eritrean divide like it did OTL. I think it's too early for that to take place and that other minorities like the Oromo may fill the role better.

But what would the political repercussions be of such a move back home. The Church could make a huge stink about the fact that Mohammedans are being used to rule over fellow (albeit heretical) Christians. How would that affect the Crispi government and what parties might take advantage of such a situation?

The Crispi government didn't give a flying fuck about the Church anyway. Rembember, we are talking about the state that had just erased the Papal states.
 
Abynissia was rather smaller back then. I can see it and the areas of Somalia and Eritrea being combined with it and named Ethiopia, much like how the three areas the Itallians got in North Africa were renamed with the ancient Roman title of Libya.
 
Which comes back to the point of how much resource can Italy muster even vs a divided ethiopia. There is almost tech parity between Italy and whoever is fighting for ethiopia.

Even if Menelik dies, that whole Italian army would be slaughtered. I cannot think of away of an almost tech/organization parity opponent fighting 10 times their size and still wins that battle and war.

Eventually those body bags will fill the streets of Italy with complaints/protests. There may be civil war in ethiopia looming but there is no way Italy would send another expedition after that battle nor Italians signing up for that.

Britain managed to establish rulership over most of India, including empires that could muster far larger armies than anything the UK (or the EIC) could deploy. The trick is simply to have locals fight locals, and your own locals win because your expeditionary force helps them.
 
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