Italy annexes Albania 1936

Instead of attacking Ethiopia, could Italy attack and annex Albania in 1936

Would it go worse then in 1939

Would France and Britain allow Italy to attack Ethiopia later
 
I believe that an earlier Italian invasion of Albania might be similar to the OTL counterpart in 1939, an easy victory for the Italians but they may sustain more casualties and an organized resistance movement under the command of King Zog might emerge. I don't much about the Royal Albanian Army but it had been weakened by the Italian fascist advisors and officers that had been training soldiers of the RAA, you might see the Royal Albanian Army offering much more resistance to the Italians than OTL.

As for Ethiopia, the Anglo-French alliance might be alarmed enough by Italian expansionism to begin secretly supporting the Ethiopians as a way of containing Italian imperialism in Africa as Mussolini prepares to invade. If Haile Selassie manages to bolster the Imperial Guard with men from the armies of the nobles supporting him and equipment supplied by the Anglo-French alliance, then they might stand a fighting chance. Other factors such as earlier mobilization, no arms embargo, etc. will also help the Ethiopians when the Italian invasion comes - then again, the Italians may not invade if they trade their imperialist ambitions in Ethiopia for European ones.
 
This doesn't make sense from an Italian point of view. They had just invested a massive amount of money in the country and had secured new concessions in 1934. Moreover Zog seemed to be content with acquiescing to Italian economic colonization after his brief rebellious period. Furthermore, Germany hadn't done anything yet. Hardly any of the push factors that led to the Italian invasion in OTL were present in 1936.

1934 on the other hand is an entirely different matter. Everyone expected the Italians to invade and we're shocked both that the Italians offered new terms and that Zog accepted them. If the Italians decide that continued investment in Zogist Albania is unwise in 1934 as opposed to 1939, the invasion is likely just as much of a cakewalk as in 1939.

Britain and France had long abandoned any serious support for an independent Albania and would immediately recognize the new Italian government. Albania had long been considered part of the Italian sphere of influence and Italian support was still needed for the Stresa front. If the Italians decide to invade Ethiopia around the time they did in OTL, I don't see a substantial change in how the British or French handled the situation in OTL happening. If Italy invades later, a lot depends on what their relationship with Germany is like.
 
If the Italians decide to invade Albania in 1935, do they launch an earlier invasion of Yugoslavia?

I think a lot of that depends on a few things
  • Does Yugoslavia close its borders like it did in 1939? If not that could lead to a protracted guerrilla campaign that could kick off a conflict at any point. The Kosovo issue would also be much more salient for longer with an earlier Italian Albania.
  • How does Yugoslavia respond diplomatically to Italian Albania, does it firm up the Little Entente?
  • Does World War II startup along roughly the same lines as OTL?
The problem with an earlier invasion of Yugoslavia (say instead of Greece in October 1940 or in April 1939) is the country's commercial relationship with Germany. TBH I think Greece is a more likely target.

On a separate note, there are a few interesting ramifications that come from an earlier Italian invasion of Albania.
  • The "Albanian Model" that was briefly flirted with in OTL by the Italian government has much more time to potentially develop in OTL without World War II breathing down its neck (See Davide Rodogno's Fascism's European Empire.) If Italy joins World War II as it did in OTL, I could see them putting more effort into setting up other ethno-nationalist fascist regimes in their occupied territories.
  • Alternatively, or perhaps in conjunction with this, Italian colonization of Albania likely is far more widespread than OTL. Depending on how Albanian resistance to Italian occupation develops I could easily see between 2-4x as many Italian colonists settling in the country. To give a sense of proportion, Albania's population in the 40s was around 1million. In OTL Italian immigrants and casual labourers numbered about 30,000.
  • Unlike the invasion of Albania in 1939, an invasion in 1934 would give the new Italian occupation a key symbol of legitimacy if the Austrofascist government could be persuaded to return the Sword and Helmet of Skanderbeg from Vienna. Given the close ties between the two countries at the time I don't see the Austrians putting up much of a fight.
  • Albania likely sees a boost of development compared to OTL due to the longer Italian occupation. In OTL resources poured in as a part of a plan to develop the region and win hearts and minds until it was apparent that the country was going to war. In TTL, rather than giving money to the corrupt Zogist government, the Italian government likely spends more in a prolonged effort to incorporate the region.
  • Albanian resistance likely looks a lot different from OTL depending on what Yugoslavia does. If Yugoslavia does not close down its borders does Zog lead a guerilla campaign in the North like he allegedly wanted to in OTL? (If he does he's in for a rough ride IMO!) If Zog goes into exile (more likely in my opinion), how does he fare without the photogenic and personable Queen Geraldine? (Hint: Not Well) How do Fan Noli and Faik Konica react to this earlier Albanian invasion? Are Albanian socialists able to convince Noli to become the "Red Bishop" in the interests of preserving Albanian independence?
 
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