Italy and the Ottomans sitting on the fence

Paul MacQ

Donor
Looking at the Italians stay out of WW2 thread was thinking about something in the back of my mind for a while, Italy and Ottoman’s how would the Balance sheet be keeping there noses out of the first big one,
Possibly seen as a few questions here

What would it take to Keep Both Italy and Ottoman’s out of the WW1

Flow on effects
I know the Russians would have more Troops for the Fight against the Austrians and Germans and a probably Free Flow of Goods from the Black sea
Balanced by not sure how much for the Central Powers ,Less Troops needed in the Alps against Italy and possibly some of the desperately needed War Materials seeping through Italy to the Central powers? not in enough to cause Britain and France to Blockade Italy but it walking a thin red line profiting

Looking at several things here and aftermath, How would they be treated by the Major powers and also the Balance sheets of how it would effect the conflict

Not sure how much Italy and the Ottomans would be able to Profit but would be interesting after the war when other Nations have Bludgeoned themselves in the Great Blood feast these to powers being intact

I am not sure who the Winners would be here so other than Italy and Ottoman Empires themselves ,leaving it open
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Italy; Neither the Central Powers nor the Entente can promise Italy the territorial compensation the Italians want. The Italians decide to remain neutral. However if Austria collapse, I can't see Italy not taking the opportunity to invade.

Ottomans; I think that if the Young Turks are removed from power, the Ottomans would at least no lean towards Germany.

If they both are neutral, well we'd have a whole different war, but in short; the Entente would win.
 
The biggest difference would be that if the Ottomans were neutral, the Straits stay open, and the Russians could be much more easily supplied by their allies, and would be better able to export their grain for trade purposes. This would subtantially strengthen the Russians. OTOH, assuming the Bulgarians still join the war to get their bite of Serbian territory, it will be awfully tempting for the Central Powers to try a grab of European Turkey and close the straits - which brings in the Ottomans on the Allied side. Would the Germans make the calculation that the isolation of Russia would be a greater plus than Allied Turkey would be a negative? Not sure myself, but the Germans were never that great at these sorts of calculations.

Bruce
 

Paul MacQ

Donor
Well looking at this seeming that a few things would have to be stacked against the Entente to even things up

2 Months delay in start of War slowing things down as the starts Happens closer to Winter ( this probably favouring Russians in longer term with even more time to Organise)

Something like Goeben would have been sent back to Germany With Moltke replacing her but Due to Boiler issues is sent back to Germany and before another replacement is sent out again war starts HMS Erin and HMS Agincourt not getting there Name changes are now with the Original Buyers Turks have less of a problem with Britain yet still strong Factions leaning towards Germany no one making the final choice,

Resulting in a similar Battle happening in Dogger Bank as OTL yet a Major Victory as a suprise turn on the British Battle Cruisers ( Now not so outnumbered by British in this Battle) to Risk covering a Embattled Blucher causing the sinking of 3 of the British Big ships yet a Battered German Fleet getting back to Harbour with it's Big ships intake other than Blucher ( woops did I use a cliché ? ), Now German Fleet still does not have control of North sea but has a force that can outfight anything it cannot outrun and outrun anything it cannot outgun, And some problems as seen in TL’s like Operation Unicorn, yet not as extreme

Young Turks still holding a bit of ground until Cooler heads take over in say a year if Political infighting, Yet restricting free flow of Military Good back into Russia causing some sabre Rattling enough to cause the Russian to Keep Troops near the Ottoman Boarder without actual conflict Happening. Yet causing the fall of the Young Turks leading to a more liberal Government, with cooler head to take over before the Young Turks get the Ottomans’ involved in the big mess of a war

Italian side, supplies going to Italy and the needs now to import Coal from further as not getting from Englandafield Say looking at options US but distances are so Great and late in the. Annoyed at the implications of troubled Trade from the British, starts slipping some supplies through to the Germans including moderate amounts of Copper and Chrome ( only in moderate amounts not enough to get close to demand ) it is buying and selling to Central Powers to Profits, Also a stand supported by Humanists in USA that Food will not be accepted as a Band Item in the Blockade and some food stuffs also get through,. Causing some British and French anger, taking the line that for Humane reasons Food. Not enough to cause drive them into the war, yet pushing things to the limits. This causing a popular Government that seemed in some ways to have stood up to the Great Powers and yet not get involved in the mass Bloodshed

Despite these effects things are still stacked too much against the Central Powers leading to a lose, was looking for a Post war where the Recriminations are flying and the From a Britain and a France still worn out by War ( is looking at doing a time line so was looking for feedback on how close things could be pushed This war will be over in 3 years 1 Month)

Well had some feedback on the outcome of the war, but looking for the Flow on effects of Victors still the Entente how still exhausted from war would treat, A revolution still in Russia yet more favouring the White Armies over the Reds The Ottomans and Italy that stayed out and seemed to have Profited in some ways ( especially Italy ). Looking at the Breakup of the Austrian Empire yes can see Italy wanting to take advantage somehow.

Looking more to Recriminations and political ripple after the war here
Looking at a Italy with no friends in Europe that still has not been gutted by getting in the war, Having reasonable relations with America yet more hostile relationship with Britain and France

And Ottoman Empire that is also not ripped apart by the conflict yet also seeming to have few friends. Not sure how they would effect a a Russia ripped apart by still having a revolution, or if they would step in at all, Would they support an Independent Ukraine for example as a buffer to a Right wing Russia that might develop

Also as a bit of a Twist going to look at better relations between Spain and Italy, and some changes there Post war making with Leftests less strong, wants to kill idea of a Spanish civil war later
 
Last edited:

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
A somewhat strong Ottoman Empire would probably support some kind of Tatar autonomy on Crimea within Russia. If Russia goes USSR, a stable Anatolian nation could support Azeri independence.
 
A somewhat strong Ottoman Empire would probably support some kind of Tatar autonomy on Crimea within Russia. If Russia goes USSR, a stable Anatolian nation could support Azeri independence.

I assume we're talking about 1770? This is certainly a wierd recurring AH meme that somehow a 20th century Ottoman Empire can do anything to Russia/USSR (one which presumably did better in the war, to boot) other than grab Kars/Ardahan.

It's beginning to seriously annoy me.
 
Perhaps Milne makes different deployments around the Straits of Messina. Indomitable is retained, or sent coaling at Malta, and Inflexible and Indefagitable are placed to the east of Messina. Or, alternativly, better planning or more aggression on troubridge's part leads to a clash with the the germans. either way, Souchon is defeated or otherwise unable to reach safe haven in Istanbul and is thus unable to involve the turks in the war.
 
Top