Italy and the Ottoman Empire stay neutral in WWI

My Question, May be Slightly ASB, But, Here goes Anyway:

What if, Admiral Souchon Successfully Manages to Elude The British, and Brings his Squadron into Constantinople, as Per OTL ...

But, The Ottomans Refuse his Offer, to Add his Ships to their Fleet?

How Much of The City, will be Left by Night Fall ...

Or is it just Historical Hyperbole, That he was Planning on Knocking Things Down, Until he Got his Way?
 
Ottomans will keep at least 3 corp on Russian Army. Russians will have to keep force there too. Very similar to A-H/Italy. Both sides will use less ammo on quite front. I tend to believe A-H used a lot more ammo per day against Italy than Russians against Ottomans, but I can't back up this figure with hard numbers off top of head.

And the straights were close a month or so before the war started for the Ottomans. Why is is different in this POD? The Ottoman basic defensive plan was to mine and close the straights if Russia mobilized. Likely here baring radical prewar POD. A neutral Ottomans does not mean Ottomans who trust or like Russia. Sure some supplies get through, but likely with 2 loading and unloading. Either they are transferred to Ottoman crewed and flagged ship at nearby port to go through straights or they have to use Railroad through Ottoman after unloading at port. And the Rails are not in great shape.

And even if we assume Ottoman allow ships through, they will be closely inspected. This means ships pilling up waiting for pilots to go through straights. Prime U-boat hunting land. And with a few German spies, the Germans will know which ships are legitimate targets. I have trouble in any scenario seeing more than 25% of prewar traffic levels.

Then even if this is all false, who pays for the goods. With men at the front, the 1915 harvest will be too small to feed Russia. Forget food exports. So UK has to pay for it, so UK runs out of money fast. I guess it depends on how fast the extra aid would be decisive. Then, where does the ammo come from. Or food. The UK and France had ammo shortages early in war, which indicates that 100% of available production was being bought. So every shell making it to Russia is one less shell used in France.

Were there German U-boats in Eastern Mediterranean? And where would they be based? They should also stay well out of Turkish territorial waters.

The pile up is ok, as is the mining of the straits, but don't push it too much.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Were there German U-boats in Eastern Mediterranean? And where would they be based? They should also stay well out of Turkish territorial waters.

The pile up is ok, as is the mining of the straits, but don't push it too much.

Yes. It is the UB and UC classes that were shippable by rail. My understanding is they were put in the water in the Adriatic then later based out of Ottomans lands. If you look at the distances, it is not as bad as getting to the Western side of the UK. And interesting fact from OTL is that the Germans used USW rules for the entire war once ships went North of Crete. No big issues ever arose from this USW zone. The territorial limit is 3 miles or so, so this is not a big issue. The waters are very congested for at least 100 miles out.

Now to what this TL looks like assuming both sides (Italy and Ottomans) try to stay neutral.

1) Most likely, the Ottoman allow no ships into the straights for durationof war. This is a key point. IOTL, the Ottomans banned all shipping in straights while still neutral and deciding if to enter the war.

2) But ok for discussion purposes, I grant Ottomans will allow ships to pass through straights after inspection. All neutrals follow rules of maritime law back then. I guess Greece stays neutral. Not stated in question, but if Greece is Allied, Germans can just operate freely in Greek waters. So what happens.

A) Basing, probably most U-boats go back to A-H. The blockade of the Adriatic was not effective versus U-boats IOTL. If Italian forces don't help and UK stays carefully out of Italian waters, the barrage might as well not exists. If we take the rules back then, seems like you could stop at neutral port for 48 hours per ship per country per 60 days. U-boats can sneak out of neutral ports easy enough. Food, fuel and others don't take that long. I have Greece to use, Bulgaria, and Ottomans. Likely U-boats can operate indefinitely without going back to Adriatic. In all likelihood, small smugglers will supply from neutral ships. We are basically talking a little fuel, food, and perhaps some ammo.

B) German spies will be radioing out which ships exit straights when. German navy will have list of target ships. Sure British spies will also be there, but they can't have as big an impact.

C) Tight, narrow waters with know targets. If we assume observing neutrality of neutrals, UK escorts have to do it too. Either you keep the convoy well outside of Greek/Ottomans water the entire time or ships are unescorted. Also, you can't arm the merchants or now AMC.

D) Best hunting will be where these merchants pile up waiting to enter straights. Now since these subs are rail mobile, I can also do in Black Sea and only face Russian Navy. Same idea, different Sea.

Really, very little change here from OTL where Germans hunted quite sucessfully in this area. Actually in many ways, much easier for Germans since easier to hunt in Aegean/Black Sea than west of UK.
 
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