Italy, a Destiny Fulfilled

LordKalvan

Cornelius said:
Well, of course this is the crux of the whole problem! Pity that is not easy to solve.

You can't cut the military spending since you have to liberate a good part of Italy yet.
You don't have a lot of natural resources to kickstart an industry.
You can't use debt to finance industry and infrastructures since you already have a large public debt.
It's hard to attract foreign capitals, since there are several others areas who are alredy attracting them (America for example).

OTL the destra storica (translation: historical right, called so to set her apart from the XX century right movements) achieved the elemination of the public debt and build many infrastructures (railroads, roads etc...) at the price of a exsose fiscalism and a brutal repression of several revolts, like those for the tax on the flour.

A way to solve this problems could be political: have France become more powerful than OTL, to thew point that Britain decides to "groom" Italy to become a possible junior ally in the scramble for Africa and a possible war in Europe.

As for seizing the Catholic Church possessions, Franciscus, you have to consider that Italy was still largely (99%) catholic. While anticlericalism was an oblique movement that reached several classes, it was too weak to support such a move. The reaction would have been probably a series of rebelions, especially in the South. It was already difficult enough OTL, with a king de facto excommunicated...
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Italy has a couple of resources they can toss in the pot: in Northern Italy the rivers can be harnessed to produce power for the industries (mainly textiles) as it happened IOTL too. There is also a skilled population that can be employed in the new factories, the infrastructures can certainly be bettered but they are not a disaster and agriculture is quite modern. What is required is some kind of vision to bring all this together asap and stable politics which would incentivate foreign capitals to come (mainly from france and Switzerland - at least at the beginning - although there were British investments in Genoa and Leghorn.

The southern part has less to offer: populace is less educated, the infrastructures are poor (although it's worth remembering that the first Italian railway was the Naples-Caserta) and agriculture is not only dominated by latifundia, but most of the owners are absent from their lands and there was not a great drive to modernise. There are a few bright points (sulphur mines in Sicily and good naval works in Palermo come to mind).
The key in the south would be to re-create a strong statal structure (the years between 1840 and 1860 were very bad years in the kingdom of Two Sicilies, with a strong reactionary backlash, an indolent king holed up in his palace in Caserta, and more interested to monitor possible plots against him than to make the kingdom grow) and avoid the OTL trap of brigandage, repression, more brigandage and more repression as well as the privileges granted to the Piedmontese industrials and traders which resulted in a net drain of resources from the south. The influence of the church is also very high, in particular in the hinterland, and any reform must be implemented with a reasonable caution. I'm not saying it cannot be done (and building infrastructures like roads and irrigation schemes would certainly produce jobs which were sorely needed) but it takes a great deal of luck and hard work as well as a strategy.
 

Franciscus Caesar

LordKalvan said:
Italy has a couple of resources they can toss in the pot: in Northern Italy the rivers can be harnessed to produce power for the industries (mainly textiles) as it happened IOTL too. There is also a skilled population that can be employed in the new factories, the infrastructures can certainly be bettered but they are not a disaster and agriculture is quite modern. What is required is some kind of vision to bring all this together asap and stable politics which would incentivate foreign capitals to come (mainly from france and Switzerland - at least at the beginning - although there were British investments in Genoa and Leghorn.

The southern part has less to offer: populace is less educated, the infrastructures are poor (although it's worth remembering that the first Italian railway was the Naples-Caserta) and agriculture is not only dominated by latifundia, but most of the owners are absent from their lands and there was not a great drive to modernise. There are a few bright points (sulphur mines in Sicily and good naval works in Palermo come to mind).
The key in the south would be to re-create a strong statal structure (the years between 1840 and 1860 were very bad years in the kingdom of Two Sicilies, with a strong reactionary backlash, an indolent king holed up in his palace in Caserta, and more interested to monitor possible plots against him than to make the kingdom grow) and avoid the OTL trap of brigandage, repression, more brigandage and more repression as well as the privileges granted to the Piedmontese industrials and traders which resulted in a net drain of resources from the south. The influence of the church is also very high, in particular in the hinterland, and any reform must be implemented with a reasonable caution. I'm not saying it cannot be done (and building infrastructures like roads and irrigation schemes would certainly produce jobs which were sorely needed) but it takes a great deal of luck and hard work as well as a strategy.
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Excellent post. You answered a question i had without me having to ask it! thank you!
 

Onkel Willie

Franciscus Caesar said:
So heres a thought: Italy and Britain: Close allies. Reactions and suggestions on how this should/could happen?
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Well, in your TL Germany is already allied to Prussia/Germany so you'd have to remove Wilhelm or have him be born as a normal, balanced person. The butterflies from an 1822 PoD should be enough to do that. Maybe alt-Wilhelm II should keep Bismarck around too and reach some compromise with him. Bismarck was quite an able ruler and diplomat.

You could also have an alternate Fashoda Incident escalate and have Germany and Italy jump on France's back to snatch some colonies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fashoda_Incident
 

Jimbrock

I dont see why you bothered to post a map, and whats with all the compliments about it, its an OTL map!:confused:
That new part doesnt really satisfy as much as the last. You think that the Northerners are going to be satisfied by a clever metaphor?
'Who cares about how poetic the Prime Minister is, we want our benefits!' would be a more likely response.:)
 

MNP

Jimbrock said:
I dont see why you bothered to post a map, and whats with all the compliments about it, its an OTL map!:confused:
That new part doesnt really satisfy as much as the last. You think that the Northerners are going to be satisfied by a clever metaphor?
'Who cares about how poetic the Prime Minister is, we want our benefits!' would be a more likely response.:)
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I agree (not about the map, my map posting skills are obviously enough to generate praise) about the reaction to the speech. Instead of the south being happy, I think they'd still be wary and consider him all talk no action. You don't want to make it too easy.

As for the business men of the north.... how about evidence of a plot against him by northern business men is uncovered? Either "evidence" or evidence doesn't really matter. Then you can go in multiple directions, say arresting some of them and putting people in place to run the business he can trust or threaten them with such unless they actually support the southern effort? I know stability is key here but it's a fine line to walk.
 

Franciscus Caesar

Jimbrock said:
I dont see why you bothered to post a map, and whats with all the compliments about it, its an OTL map!:confused:
That new part doesnt really satisfy as much as the last. You think that the Northerners are going to be satisfied by a clever metaphor?
'Who cares about how poetic the Prime Minister is, we want our benefits!' would be a more likely response.:)
Click to expand...

Yes, but at least the people who are not experts on this time can see how Europe looks currently and can compare future changes. The compliments are thanking MNPundit for posting it, Jim, I asked you but no reply :confused: (sorry if that comes across in the way it isn't intended to)

OK, I can see where you are both coming from with the whole "clever metaphor' thing, I get it and don't worry, di Castagna is not out of the woods with the north, they still do want performance! The speech just gives them something to chew on, just as many Politicians these days do. We like what they are saying, but in the end, you still feel the same!

MNPundit said:
I agree (not about the map, my map posting skills are obviously enough to generate praise) about the reaction to the speech. Instead of the south being happy, I think they'd still be wary and consider him all talk no action. You don't want to make it too easy.

As for the business men of the north.... how about evidence of a plot against him by northern business men is uncovered? Either "evidence" or evidence doesn't really matter. Then you can go in multiple directions, say arresting some of them and putting people in place to run the business he can trust or threaten them with such unless they actually support the southern effort? I know stability is key here but it's a fine line to walk.
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I disagree, di Castagna has done so much already for the south, how can they think hes all talk? Hes probably the first Italian to actually really push southern reform (though hes fictitious :p)! True, too easy is not good, but at least with a better morale, I can have a more focused effort at changing something that is far from easy... Italy's Economy!

Now, about that Business man idea... I am putting that to work immediately! We were all thinking about really changing Italy's Industry, but why not just manipulate it!? Hehe...
 

Supermanboy

Jimbrock said:
I dont see why you bothered to post a map, and whats with all the compliments about it, its an OTL map!:confused:
That new part doesnt really satisfy as much as the last. You think that the Northerners are going to be satisfied by a clever metaphor?
'Who cares about how poetic the Prime Minister is, we want our benefits!' would be a more likely response.:)
Click to expand...

Ouch, kinda harsh
 

Franciscus Caesar

Onkel Willie said:
Well, in your TL Germany is already allied to Prussia/Germany so you'd have to remove Wilhelm or have him be born as a normal, balanced person. The butterflies from an 1822 PoD should be enough to do that. Maybe alt-Wilhelm II should keep Bismarck around too and reach some compromise with him. Bismarck was quite an able ruler and diplomat.

You could also have an alternate Fashoda Incident escalate and have Germany and Italy jump on France's back to snatch some colonies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fashoda_Incident
Click to expand...

That sounds good, but it wont be for quite a while
 

Jimbrock

Franciscus Caesar said:
Yes, but at least the people who are not experts on this time can see how Europe looks currently and can compare future changes. The compliments are thanking MNPundit for posting it, Jim, I asked you but no reply :confused: (sorry if that comes across in the way it isn't intended to)

OK, I can see where you are both coming from with the whole "clever metaphor' thing, I get it and don't worry, di Castagna is not out of the woods with the north, they still do want performance! The speech just gives them something to chew on, just as many Politicians these days do. We like what they are saying, but in the end, you still feel the same!
Click to expand...
I thought you asked me to create a map showing the important places in the South and resuources, etc, and I suck at maps so I cant, obviously. You never asked me to post an already made one!
Supermanboy said:
Ouch, kinda harsh
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Believe me, noone in the north will really care about how good the southerners are doing, they really look down on them.
 

LordKalvan

Jimbrock said:
Believe me, noone in the north will really care about how good the southerners are doing, they really look down on them.
Click to expand...

That's IOTL, and it's the result of a major internal migration post-WW2; and even that was more a thing of the 1950s and 1960s than of now.
ITTL it might be different, assuming that the south starts to pull its own weight. Frankly I do not see a real chance for Italy to get to a major power status if half of the country is a dead weight: therefore the most strategical objective should be focussing on the development of the south.
It may be unrealistic (and it did not happen IOTL) but IMHO it is a classic example of sufficient and necessary condition.
 

Franciscus Caesar

LordKalvan said:
That's IOTL, and it's the result of a major internal migration post-WW2; and even that was more a thing of the 1950s and 1960s than of now.
ITTL it might be different, assuming that the south starts to pull its own weight. Frankly I do not see a real chance for Italy to get to a major power status if half of the country is a dead weight: therefore the most strategical objective should be focussing on the development of the south.
It may be unrealistic (and it did not happen IOTL) but IMHO it is a classic example of sufficient and necessary condition.
Click to expand...

Thank you Very Much!! Couldn't have said it better myself:D
 

Supermanboy

Bump!:) Mr. Caesar, when are we going to see a new part? I recall you saying one would be up by about this time!

-Need more Italy action!-
 

Franciscus Caesar

Ok, question:). In 1864, Britain gave Corfu and the Ionian islands to Greece. Can we get them to Italy? Maybe promise to protect British interests?
 

lothaw

Franciscus Caesar said:
Ok, question:). In 1864, Britain gave Corfu and the Ionian islands to Greece. Can we get them to Italy? Maybe promise to protect British interests?
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Not likely. The islands were inhabited by Greeks. Rather than establish yet another Dominion, and a small one to boot, they just handed them over to Greece. Not like the islands are even that strategicly important. And Greece owes Britain a favor now.
 

Franciscus Caesar

Writer's block

Well now, I guess 2 weeks of solid work has fried my brain. However, I am as excited as ever to write! So, a willingness to write, but no ideas...MUST BE... WRITERS BLOCK:eek:!!

So, any ideas (mostly short term, but long too... actually, anything to push me along)? I have a part all ready, but its rather short and I feel it could be better. So, ideas please!:D Thank You!!:D
 
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