Italico Valore - A more successful 1848 revolution in Italy - a TL

[LordKalvan]

Despite the revolutionary events in Europe, US history, in my opinion, won't change much: America was in isolation during this period and focused on the continent. The divide between north and south would remain even if immigration from Europe is diminished. I'm not an expert on US history but I think that a civil war was unavoidable as long as the comtrasts between north and south remain. Abolitionist would still rise and European events would not influence the New World as much.

The "isolation" of the USA was more formal than substantial (in terms of trade they were well connected to the rest of the world, and ideas circulated widely even before internet).
There are very few things, if any, which are truly unavoidable, in particular if there are significant changes almost next door (and Europe was almost next door).
12 years from the POD are quite a significant stretch of time to generate changes, even if the POD happened a few thousand kilometers away.

 

[dmg86]

About the 1860 election the southern democrats were basically 'if you don't give us what we want we will nominate are own person." northern democrats were 'we can't do that and get elected' and as the party had a rule that 2/3rd of the total delegates were needed and after two attempts to nominate a candidate both sections went their own way. two the numbers were increasing against the south in congress so they felt cornered. Three Fort Sumter was in a position to close the harbor and the south felt it wouldn't be taken seriously as a nation as long as it wasn't theirs. Forth Lincoln wouldn't recognize the south as a country so wouldn't talk to their representatives they did send.

 

[LordKalvan]

About the 1860 election the southern democrats were basically 'if you don't give us what we want we will nominate are own person." northern democrats were 'we can't do that and get elected' and as the party had a rule that 2/3rd of the total delegates were needed and after two attempts to nominate a candidate both sections went their own way. two the numbers were increasing against the south in congress so they felt cornered. Three Fort Sumter was in a position to close the harbor and the south felt it wouldn't be taken seriously as a nation as long as it wasn't theirs. Forth Lincoln wouldn't recognize the south as a country so wouldn't talk to their representatives they did send.

Do you believe that the Southern States would play the game in the same way if they had a second try?
If they do, it's a suicide pact

 

[dmg86]

yes because they felt the US was becoming something they didn't want to be a part of. An industrial state with a strong goverment while most southerns believed in a rural weak goverment. This kind of an issues that dated back to the start of the US.

 

[Deleted member 147289]

Well I can definitely try to imagine an alternate USA but the point is: what would change? The 1848 revolutions brought to the US a wave of both political exiles and immigrants but this wave is definitely reduced OTL with the success of the revolution in Italy and Hungary, while Germany hasn't changed much and we'll likely see some immigration from it. Alexander II could open up Russia earlier and starting and influx of eastern europeans along with jews in the pale. The other consequence was to raise the awareness for "liberal" movements such as women's rights, labour and abolitionism. With the revolutions more successful ITTL this awareness will likely be higher and people will start to wonder what could happen if nothing changes and thus we have, for example, free soilers and abolitionists which clash against copperheads because every revolution always have a reaction and with a more "radical" 1848, political movements in the US would be much more "reformists". If anything I could see a quicker change of peace in the american political mentality as a consequence of the revolutions. This not to say that a Civil War is imminent, it might be averted or kicked down the road (but as soon as America industrializes, slavery will loose it's economic value and become a burden rather than an asset) but OTL the revolution had this effects, with a stronger revolution in 1848 who knows?

Are there some little/less known events between 1850-1860 that could have a major impact on US history?

 

[Deleted member 147289]

20. GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

The Great Qing Empire experienced the decade as an era of turmoil and social disorder that Emperor Xianfeng could not remedy. Humiliated by Great Britain during the First Opium War, China had not modernized and neither taken an interest in Western ways of doing it, falling further and further behind the rest of the world, absorbed in a splendid isolation that had been broken by British weapons. General discontent, coupled with frequent famines, inflamed the hearts of the population that arose for the duration of the decade, the biggest of these insurrections was the Heavenly Kingdom of Hong Xiuan, a theocracy that united traditional Chinese religions and Christianity. Unable to suppress the rebellion in a short time the entire empire was engulfed by a civil war aggravated by the Arrow incident which was the spark for the second opium war which saw Britain join Russia, interested in the Pacific coast of Outer Manchuria, France, involved after the execution of Catholic missionaries and the young Italian Confederation who sent an expeditionary force together with their allies. The war lasted four years and, in the context of the Taiping rebellion, was relatively civil, the only particularly violent act was the burning of the Summer Palace by the Anglo-French troops. The war ended with the concession of Kowloon and the delta of the pearl river to Great Britain, External Manchuria to Russia and the opening of China to Franco-Italian traders as well as reparations in gold and silver. In return, Westerners helped the empire to suppress the Taiping rebellion which by 1862 would finally end after tens of millions of deaths mainly due to hunger and reprisals.

Across the Chinese sea, Japan was slowly being dragged out of its isolation since the arrival of Commodore Perry in 1853, leading an American fleet with the aim of opening up Japanese ports to foreign trade. The Shogun had, for 214 years, applied a policy of closure from the outside that had isolated Japanese society from the global events and technological progress that was taking place outside its borders. Perry's arrival in Edo and the subsequent treaty of 1854 were a shock to many Japanese who had negative views towards foreigners, spreading some discontent towards the Shogun who had succumbed to the "barbarians" and had opened the country , leading to a "return" to the imperial court of Japanese noble families who, after the failure of the Shogun, had begun to see the Emperor not only as a religious leader but also as a potential political leader. The arrival of modernity in Japan was not all roses: foreign trade increased as did foreign diplomats in Edo who offered to modernize the nation behind fruitful concessions but the Japanese economy suffered from a too unbalanced exchange rate between gold and silver: 1: 5 instead of 1: 1.5 as in the rest of the world, leading western traders to exchange silver for gold and bring the precious metal out of the country, making a fortune and decreasing gold reserves of the country with natural consequences on the economy such as the depreciation of the currency. This, coupled with the percived aggression on traditional Japanese culture, made the Emperor's camp more numerous and unrest against the Shogun started to increase.

The opening of Japan by the Americans was going to have great consequences on world history​

The United States experienced the post-war period as a period of growth and internal reorganization especially of the huge territories they had obtained after the war with Mexico. The discovery of gold in California in 1849 created an unprecedented gold rush on the east coast with thousands of people abandoning everything to go and seek fortune in California, contributing to the development of the state. The annexation of new territories and the growing division between slave and non-slave states gave rise to the 1850 compromise. The compromise was the result of long discussions between northern and southern politicians: the former wanted to admit New Mexico and California as they were free while the southerners feared that this would unbalance congress in favor of the north and threaten their institution. So it was that Senator Bell proposed dividing Texas in two: Texas proper in the north, and the state of Rio Grande in the south, organizing New Mexico as a territory and also dividing California in two: Northern California and Southern California, plus other provisions such as the obligation of the northern states to return the fugitive slaves. The compromise was seen by politicians as a useful move to avoid complications but the population, especially the northern one inflamed by the liberal ideas of the 1848 revolutions, considered the compromise as a surrender to the slavery power of the south, even going so far as to denounce the United States as a "slavocracy", the most daring proponents of this thought were the "free soilers" and what would become the Republican party which, among its objectives, had abolitionism. Among the many points of the 1850 compromise, that of popular sovereignty in determining the extension of slavery in the annexed territories, created many problems, especially with the opening of Kansas and Nebraska to colonization by abolitionist and slaver gangs that clashed regularly giving birth to the "Bloody Kansas" period. In the background, the country was rapidly industrializing, especially in the north, taking advantage of the huge natural and human resources (thanks to the emigration from Europe that was starting to increase) to build factories and railways, starting a new phase of American capitalism. The uprisings of 1848 in Europe had also raised public interest in other issues such as women's rights and workers' rights (the Labor Code promulgated in the Italian Confederation greatly affected them), leading to a general awareness of the American public , shaken by the decision of Dredd Scott V Sanford, who excluded African Americans from constitution protections. The decision of the Supreme Court ignited the abolitionist forces that led a radical campaign in 1860. The Democratic party understood that if they were divided they would lose to the Republicans and therefore in the convention of 1860, which will be remembered as one of the most eventful and heated in history , the northern and southern factions both compromised their positions by marginalizing the radicals, appointing Stephen Douglas as president and John Breckenridge as vice president. The democratic ticket won the elections mainly thanks to the compactness of the party which thanks to its unity prevented Lincoln from obtaining all the votes of the north. Stephen Douglas died in 1861, leaving the presidency to his deputy, John Breckenridge.

 

[Thomas1195]

The democratic ticket won the elections mainly thanks to the compactness of the party which thanks to its unity prevented Lincoln from obtaining all the votes of the north. Stephen Douglas died in 1861, leaving the presidency to his deputy, John Breckenridge.

IOTL, if you remove all the EVs in states carried by Lincoln with less than 50% of total votes(New Jersey, Cali, Oregon) he would have still won.

 

[Deleted member 147289]

IOTL, if you remove all the EVs in states carried by Lincoln with less than 50% of total votes(New Jersey, Cali, Oregon) he would have still won.

Douglas got a lot of votes, remove Bell, give Breckenridge the states he won IOTL and Douglas gets something in the north. Lincon loses but by a few votes and ITTL it's what happens. Less people vote Republican and the split between the norther and southern wing doesn't happen.

 

[Thomas1195]

Douglas got a lot of votes, remove Bell, give Breckenridge the states he won IOTL and Douglas gets something in the north. Lincon loses but by a few votes and ITTL it's what happens. Less people vote Republican and the split between the norther and southern wing doesn't happen.

I mean, Lincoln got more votes than all of them combined in all Northern States except for Cali, Oregon and New Jersey. In other words, he would have beaten a hypothetical Fusion ticket in all other Northern states.

 

[LordKalvan]

I mean, Lincoln got more votes than all of them combined in all Northern States except for Cali, Oregon and New Jersey. In other words, he would have beaten a hypothetical Fusion ticket in all other Northern states.

True, but in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio Lincoln got barely above 50%. If Stephen Douglas does not need to canvass the south and concentrates on the swing states, he has a chance of turning them (and the ticket Douglas/Breckinridge would also have a claim to be working for the unity of the country, against a Lincoln who would only speak for the NE states). Even if Lincoln wins (which is quite likely), it will not be the landslide it was IOTL, and he would loose the popular vote.
I suppose it would depend how the election for Congress/Senate go in 1860 and 1862 (I do not have any idea).

 

[dmg86]

The thing is he lost the popular vote by 10 % over his rivals and still won. And to be nominated as I mentioned earlier Douglas would have to basically agree to the southern demands which kill the party in the north and he knew it. In addition as I also mentioned the southerns would not tolerate a candidate that did not defend slavery and it's expansion. In sum by the 1850's their was no more room for comprise or avoiding it.

 

[LordKalvan]

Lincoln's victory was obviously the result of an electoral method (the Electoral Votes) which clearly evidences the very limited confidence the Founding Fathers had in direct democracy, but this is not the place to debate this.
Douglas/Breckinridge should have worked for a compromised based on the States' Rights, in other words the right of a state to choose his own path without interference by the Federal Government. I believe this is a message that could well resonate in the North too: unity through diversity, as opposed to the Republican message that the Federal Government might choose the path for everyone.
Ultimately, it's telling different audiences what they want to hear, and this is the bread-and-butter of politics.

 

[Thomas1195]

Lincoln's victory was obviously the result of an electoral method (the Electoral Votes) which clearly evidences the very limited confidence the Founding Fathers had in direct democracy, but this is not the place to debate this.
Douglas/Breckinridge should have worked for a compromised based on the States' Rights, in other words the right of a state to choose his own path without interference by the Federal Government. I believe this is a message that could well resonate in the North too: unity through diversity, as opposed to the Republican message that the Federal Government might choose the path for everyone.
Ultimately, it's telling different audiences what they want to hear, and this is the bread-and-butter of politics.

The biggest concern of the North was the Slave Power and the spread of slavery which was the problem for the majority of Northerners (not to confuse with actual abolitionism), not Southern-style states' rights. As a poster said above, making deal with Southern Democrats was equivalent to approving the expansion of slavery, which would have killed the Northern Democrats.

Lincoln did win the majority of Northern votes btw.

Even Seward would have had a winning probability of over 90%.

 

[LordKalvan]

Lincoln did win the majority of Northern votes btw.

Which is quite different from winning the majority of the total vote.
Anyway, we're derailing the TL, which is not centered on the USA.
ITTL, Douglas/Breckinridge somehow gained the nomination, and went on to win (probably by a very close margin) the presidency.
This does not mean that the crisis in the USA is over, by all means.
There is just a possibility that the USA will stay together without a civil war, assuming the people in power don't make anything too stupid which might lead to an armed confrontation, but there is also a possibility that secession comes again to the front (maybe this time around it will be a Northern secession, which would be a refreshing change)

 

[Deleted member 147289]

21. EYES SOUTHWARD

The Italian peninsula had been divided for a decade by the Confederation in the North and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies in the South. Industrialized, liberal and internationally recognized the former, reactionary, agrarian and isolated the latter. In 1859 Ferdinand II died of septicemia leaving the kingdom to his son Francesco II who inherited a backward and obscurantist kingdom, in which the first industrial and social progress had been frozen by the decade of reaction to the riots of '48 and Sicilian independence, in distinct disadvantage compared to the Italian Confederation. The young king understood the gravity of the situation and from the first moment he tried to find a solution to the stalemate of the kingdom by raising taxes and expropriating land from the church and landowners, making them resent the central power in Naples.

As the king tried to bring the kingdom into the modern age, the city elites were already plotting against the Bourbon monarchy: the unification of the North had raised great hopes for a future unity between the two nations, fueled by the liberal ideas of Italian nationalism propagated by the Confederation. These bourgeois had already made first contacts with their counterparts in Turin, finding the favor of the Count of Cavour who saw the destiny of the Confederation in the unity of Italy and thus the first seeds of rebellion were planted in the south.

Naples was the crown jewel of the Two Sicilies,​

The other thorny issue was the continuous stay of Pius IX in Gaeta who, for ten years now, had refused to return to Rome, transferring the papal see to the south. For the Confederate peoples, the Pope's refusal was just another proof of his greed and desire to rule on earth as a sovereign not as a shepherd of Christian souls and consequently the Siccardi laws, although not adored, were accepted by the population as necessary as the Pope seen as one of the many reactionaries opposed to the unification of Italy.

Cavour had spent the previous years modernizing and preparing the North for the eventual conquest of the South: he knew that the region was lagging behind and would have been much more so after the social and industrial developments that the Confederation was experiencing. The Prime Minister's final goal was to complete what started in 1848 and unite the peninsula under a single government that would allow her to become the Great Power that Italy should be. So it was that the count contacted the only man capable of destabilizing the Bourbon kingdom: Giuseppe Garibaldi, currently general of the Roman and Confederate armies. Between the two there was no good blood especially because of political ideas but the two men both had the same goal: the unity of the peninsula and so it was that, after some discussions, Garibaldi agreed to start sowing the seeds of rebellion in the south to give the Confederation a casus belli to intervene and restore order.

Garibaldi, accompanied by Nino Bixio and nearly a thousand volounteers coming from both the Confederation and in form of exiles from Two Sicilies who would be the spearhead of the plan. The irregulars crossed the border between the Confederation and Two Sicilies in April 1860 and started spreading across the kingdom, using the contacts with liberals and anti-bourbon rebels that Cavour had carefully crafted after the London Conference. Among them the men delivered arms and started ro make plans for a general insurrection in the summer, expanding the network and preparing themselves for the general revolt.

When summer came, the efforts of Garibaldi and his men payed off as in July a general insurrection, stroked by the heat and inability of the government to cope with the troubles of the kingdom, erupted in the major cities and in the coutryside, led in the former by liberals and in the latter landowners alienated by the taxes that Francis had to impose in order to reign in the finances of the kingdom. Quickly the army was occupied with putting down the rebellion that had devolved in street fighting in Naples where Garibaldi's mastery of guerrilla warfare payed off as the volounteers and insurrectionists defeated the garrison and forced to flee the city, with the urban elite establishing a regency council under the protection of Garibaldi and invited the Confederation to restore order to the south that was rebelling. The news of the first successes of the expedition spread rapidly throughout the peninsula, while Europe watched without interfering: the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies had very few friends and of these nobody was willing to threaten an intervention to preserve their territorial integrity.

An expert in guerrilla warfare and insurgency, Garibaldi was the best men to stir up chaos in Two Sicilies​

Seeing that his plan was successful, Cavour gave orders to the Confederate armies (two Sardinians and one Roman) to cross the border with the south to restore order in the kingdom that was collapsing into total chaos due to the revolt. The Confederate army advanced along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coasts, finding little opposition as the army of the Two Sicilies was deployed within the kingdom to counter the riots. At the head of the army was Vittorio Emanuele II who was warmly welcomed by the population, of Naples where he met Garibaldi and the regency council offered him the crown of the kingdom, which Vittorio Emanuele accepted.

When Francis II learned of the Piedmontese invasion he understood that there was nothing more to do and, together with his wife Maria Sofia of Bavaria, he took refuge in Bari where, together with a small group of loyalists, he embarked on a steamer to Zara, in the Austrian Empire, where Maximilian I, married to Maria Sofia's sister Elizabeth, would offer him protection in his exile.

Having all but taken over the kingdom, Cavour started making plans to split the kingdom in smaller entities but this proved to be too much for Vittorio Emanuele which dismissed Cavour after two weeks of debate, ending the first Cavour government and replacing him with Rattazzi who agreed on preserving the integrity of the kingdom but argued for reduced centralization in order to export the Confederate model in the south. In the meantime, while the authorities met with notables, liberals and republicans, the army would occupy the region bringing back the order that had vanished at the time of the fall of the royal power, especially in the mountainous regions where gangs of bandits terrorized the population and slowed down the Confederate efforts.

Pius IX was arrested in Gaeta, unable to flee anywhere, and brought back to the Papal Palaces in Rome from where he declared to be a prisoner of Italy, but his statements fell on mostly deaf ears in the rest of Europe. For the first time since the Roman Empire the Italian peninsula was united under a single banner and at last the goals of 1848 were reached.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Eagerly awaiting the result of the integration of the Two Siciles.

I wonder if the Pope will really end up as a prisoner in the Vatican.

Perhaps the OTL Vatican City ends up as a semi-autonomous enclave within the Roman Republic.

Speaking of which, perhaps Monaco and San Marino end up as autonomous states within Italy.

 

[Deleted member 147289]

If anyone has suggestions on how to split Two Sicilies in smaller countries I'm all ears

 

[Analytical Engine]

If anyone has suggestions on how to split Two Sicilies in smaller countries I'm all ears

Something something confederation based around the departments:

Kingdom of the Two Sicilies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Alternatively, the greater Neapolitan area becomes a separate unit. Possible restoration of Spoleto from the region of Abruzzo. Possible restoration of the Principality of Capua from northern Campania. Possible restoration of the County of Apulia and Calabria from the remainder of southern Italy:

 

[Tarabas]

Something something confederation based around the departments:

Kingdom of the Two Sicilies - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Alternatively, the greater Neapolitan area becomes a separate unit. Possible restoration of Spoleto from the region of Abruzzo. Possible restoration of the Principality of Capua from northern Campania. Possible restoration of the County of Apulia and Calabria from the remainder of southern Italy:

I would go with the first option. Hard to resurrect the Duchy of Spoleto with Spoleto itself in the Roman Republic. I really do not see the problem of admitting the Kingdom (aptly renamed the Kingdom of Naples, of course) though, nor I see why the plotters should agree to have the kingdom broke into, say four duchies (Abruzzi, Puglia, Campania, Calabria). Maybe a Regency council can be put in place and the crown bestowed on Amedeo of Savoy, VE's third son (who should be 15 now) creating a third branch of the House of Savoy down the line, of Savoy-Naples. I am partial to offering the crown to Lucien Murat, but that might just be me.

 

[Vinization]

All hail the Kingdom of the Italians!