Italians stay out of WW2

Let me be the one to mention that finding the Libyan Oilfields before the '50s is ASB ;)

Actually the Italians first noticed traces of methane in a water well drilled near Tripoli in 1914 and gas was noticed in wells drilled on the coastal plain on the Jabal Nafusah. Traces of oil was first found in a water well near Tripoli in 1926 and Agip began reconnaissance work for the next two years. In 1940 oil was discovered by Agip in the Sirt Basin, but the drilling was cut short by the war. However, it was only after the war in 1947 that Esso concluded that Libya had oil in commercial quantities.

Without the war, you may get commercial oil exploration by the late 1940s and large exports by the early 1950s.
 
I remember, in another discussion, a guy that showed in details how it was nearly impossible for the early 40's extraction technology to exploit oil in Lybia.
 

Markus

Banned
Things certainly look a lot better for the Allies in the Far East.


A great many ground troops would have been freed. The East-African Campaign alone tied down five full divisions in 1941, plus all sorts of supporting units. Force levels in North Africa were even higher. Wiki says the 8th Army had seven divisions -and better ones with plenty of armor. Had just a tenth of these troops reinforced Malaya, the IJA would have been in for a hard time.


Let´s take a look at the air power:

In 1940 Gladiator biplanes played an important role in the air war in the Med. Since they would have been of no use in the UK, dumping them in the Far East looks like a logical solution to me. The same applies to the Blenheim Mk.I, there were hardly any left in the UK in 1940. In 1941 some rather modern a/c showed up on DAF´s OOB: Blenheim IV, Martin Maryland and Hurricanes. The latter were used up on Malta in considerable numbers. ~350 were delivered by carrier alone. DAF even had five squadrons of P-40C at the end of 1941. Once again, a little of that could have had a big impact in the Far East.


And last but not least the Navy:

The four modernized QE were as good as any BB the Japanese had prior to mid-42. Ark Royal and Barham might not be lost and as far as I can tell the RN lost at least six cruisers in the Med in 1940 and 41. The Med was also the No.1 hunting ground of RN submarines, who happened to have torpedoes that worked.


Bottom line: The British Empire would have to screw up a to harder to loose the Far East this time. If they don´t they would have vastly more troops to fight Germany from 1943 onwards.


The Balkans:

My gut feeling says if Italy stays out of the war, they´d not mess around there too. At least not by invading Greece. Yugoslavia would hardly face an invasion. With no Italian invasion of Greece and no Axis, there would be no UK presence in Greece, so there would be no reason for undue German pressure on Belgrade. Italy and especially Germany would still dominate the region.
 
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