Italian Wars and European hegemony

[RodentRevolution]

Wow, Naples was being drained pretty harshly: does it include Sicily and Sardinia too, to your knowledge? Is Aragon included under Castile?

As noted the original text for the tables is James D Tracy's work on Charles V

Which is available from Amazon though might be a bit pricey, now if IIRC* correctly Aragon gave its returns separately but I am pretty sure Naples as per the table is as you say the Kingdom of Naples including Sicily and Sardinia. Italy though was rich, that was why people were so keen to fight over its bits (which probably goes a long way to explaining why it did not stay so rich).

Also worth noting Charles V's finances were hugely dependent on truly enormous amounts of borrowing.

*Just to be clear any misunderstanding of the situation is mine because it has been a while since I read the actual book or any other works on that particular rather complex subject

 

[Lucius Verus]

As noted the original text for the tables is James d Tracy's work on Charles V

Which is available from Amazon though might be a bit pricey, now if IIRC correctly Aragon gave its returns separately but I am pretty sure Naples as per the table is as you say the Kingdom of Naples including Sicily and Sardinia. Italy though was rich, that was why people were so keen to fight over its bits (which probably goes a long way to explaining why it did not stay so rich).

GDP wise it was industrious despite the mismanagement and wars, the burden did however cause the region to stagnate with the Netherlands catching up in the 16th century and the rest of industrial Europe surpassing it in the 19th.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

As noted the original text for the tables is James d Tracy's work on Charles V

Which is available from Amazon though might be a bit pricey, now if IIRC correctly Aragon gave its returns separately but I am pretty sure Naples as per the table is as you say the Kingdom of Naples including Sicily and Sardinia. Italy though was rich, that was why people were so keen to fight over its bits (which probably goes a long way to explaining why it did not stay so rich).

Also worth noting Charles V's finances were hugely dependent on truly enormous amounts of borrowing.

Thank you, it looks very interesting! My university library might even have it.
I would have thought that southern and insular Italy was already quite decayed economically speaking, but my impression was probably exaggerated.
The role of bankers was indeed very very important: just think about the role the Fugger family had in securing the Imperial election for Charles...

Back to topic, it is maybe possible that a diminished specie stream would have caused the Hansburgs some problems in the second half of the xvi and during the xvii century: possibly a complete defeat during the thirty years wmwar, including the loss of Italian territories to France snd or local rebellion? On the other hand those conflicts could well be changed without recognition by the butterfly effect. For example the European economy would maybe not have undergone an inflation period without the American gold and silver, but this is a rather controversial topic in ecobomic history iirc.

 

[Fernando Perla]

Would the Spanish have had reinforced the Treaty of Tordesillas? What about their struggle against piracy in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean?

 

[Fernando Perla]

Back to topic, it is maybe possible that a diminished specie stream would have caused the Hansburgs some problems in the second half of the xvi and during the xvii century: possibly a complete defeat during the thirty years wmwar, including the loss of Italian territories to France snd or local rebellion?

What do you think would have happened during the wars against the Dutch, the English and the Ottomans?

 

[pompejus]

What about ............ the Eighty Years' War ........? Would the Spanish have had been successful?

Personaly I believe the early years would be roughly the same, but without the MAerican silver I think the Spanish would run out of steam earlier. For example the famous 10 years in which OTL the Dutch managed to turn the tide from almost lost to effectively won, could easily become fiveteen years, recapturing more territory. In the end I think the Dutch border would be further south, probably including major cities like Antwerp and Ostend.

 

[Tanc49]

GDP wise it was industrious despite the mismanagement and wars, the burden did however cause the region to stagnate with the Netherlands catching up in the 16th century and the rest of industrial Europe surpassing it in the 19th.

As far as I understand, the Low Countries became powerful more so because they were channelling the wealth of the Indies into the big market that was Northern Europe along the Rhine. Italy stagnated in a way because it stayed focused on the Med.
Actually I also read that the decline of the Med was relative until quite late

 

[jeandebueil]

remember the demographics issue. Between 1520 and 1650, 500 000 to 750 000 spaniards went to new world for a country which had maybe 7 to 8 million people. On the long run, it exhausts a country. Plus without the silver flowing, spain becomes what she was becoming in the late XVth century, a proto-industrial country transforming her high-quality wool instead of selling it (mainly to flanders), instead of buying everything and producing nothing. So a Spain without the new world (or at least the continental one, she would keep sugar islands) could be better on the long run. OTOH, it's true that without Potosi silver, she won't be in position to finance expeditions against barbaric states (Tunis and Alger in the 1530's-1540's) but it was useless military actions anyway. For Lepante, well i dunno but i think it would still be a spanish victory (after all, it was a galley's battle, not a galleon's one).

 

[pompejus]

As far as I understand, the Low Countries became powerful more so because they were channelling the wealth of the Indies into the big market that was Northern Europe along the Rhine. Italy stagnated in a way because it stayed focused on the Med.
Actually I also read that the decline of the Med was relative until quite late

Atualy not true. A very large part of the wealth of the Netherlands came from trade within Europe (like the Baltic trade). This was a more significant part than the trade with the Indies. Certainly in the 16th century when the Netherlands wasn't independent or was fighting the early parts of the Dutch revolt.

 

[Lucius Verus]

remember the demographics issue. Between 1520 and 1650, 500 000 to 750 000 spaniards went to new world for a country which had maybe 7 to 8 million people.

That's more a symptom of the permanent population surplus from the interior highlands (a process that continues to this day) and the inefficiencies of the Andalusian agricultural estates.

Plus without the silver flowing, spain becomes what she was becoming in the late XVth century, a proto-industrial country transforming her high-quality wool instead of selling it (mainly to flanders), instead of buying everything and producing nothing.

Two things, one Spanish wool was part of the reason for the external migration; agricultural enclosures, the practice of fencing off and privatizing common lands was discouraged in Spain since the export of Merino wool which was highly lucrative for the crown and the shepard guilds wanted common land to graze on. As a result land privatization was slow in Spain since it much easier to tax a set number of goods going through international ports than the agricultural surpluses of local trade. Without the exclusiveness of private land it discouraged agricultural investments and the food security that is the basis of a pre-modern economy.

As for finishing, when bleached wool gives off a yellowish color instead of the desirable white, necessitating dying with sulphur; a two step process that requires months of bleaching and considerable skill in chemical processes (not that they knew much about chemistry). Look at how others came about, the Netherlands and England both acquired skilled dyers and finishers by taking in religious refugees with the skills; a process that is determined by religious tolerance and not something that would change in Spain whether it conquered the New World or not. Organized efforts at education was only something done for military purposes at the time (weapon makers) and economic reasons only came later (like the French silk industry).

On the long run, it exhausts a country.

In the long run non-stop foreign wars exhausts a country; with the Hapsburg inheritance the 8-10 million Spanish souls inherited religious wars against the Holy Roman Empire (20million German souls), the Ottomans (15 million Ottoman subjects), and intensified the Franco-Spanish rivalry (13million French souls). If Spain didn't have the Hapsburgs it wouldn't have been fully involved in Germany nor against the Ottomans and saved itself massive amounts of treasure and manpower. Sure the French would still be rivals, but they wouldn't feel as threatened by Hapsburg encirclement. It is a problem with dynastic politics and less to do with the New World.

 

[Diego]

Would the Spanish have had reinforced the Treaty of Tordesillas? What about their struggle against piracy in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean?

What do you mean with reinforcing?

 

[jeandebueil]

That's more a symptom of the permanent population surplus from the interior highlands (a process that continues to this day) and the inefficiencies of the Andalusian agricultural estates.



Two things, one Spanish wool was part of the reason for the external migration; agricultural enclosures, the practice of fencing off and privatizing common lands was discouraged in Spain since the export of Merino wool which was highly lucrative for the crown and the shepard guilds wanted common land to graze on. As a result land privatization was slow in Spain since it much easier to tax a set number of goods going through international ports than the agricultural surpluses of local trade. Without the exclusiveness of private land it discouraged agricultural investments and the food security that is the basis of a pre-modern economy.

As for finishing, when bleached wool gives off a yellowish color instead of the desirable white, necessitating dying with sulphur; a two step process that requires months of bleaching and considerable skill in chemical processes (not that they knew much about chemistry). Look at how others came about, the Netherlands and England both acquired skilled dyers and finishers by taking in religious refugees with the skills; a process that is determined by religious tolerance and not something that would change in Spain whether it conquered the New World or not. Organized efforts at education was only something done for military purposes at the time (weapon makers) and economic reasons only came later (like the French silk industry).



In the long run non-stop foreign wars exhausts a country; with the Hapsburg inheritance the 8-10 million Spanish souls inherited religious wars against the Holy Roman Empire (20million German souls), the Ottomans (15 million Ottoman subjects), and intensified the Franco-Spanish rivalry (13million French souls). If Spain didn't have the Hapsburgs it wouldn't have been fully involved in Germany nor against the Ottomans and saved itself massive amounts of treasure and manpower. Sure the French would still be rivals, but they wouldn't feel as threatened by Hapsburg encirclement. It is a problem with dynastic politics and less to do with the New World.

burgos was not becoming some promising "industrial" city by the end of the XVth century if i remember correctly?

 

[Lucius Verus]

burgos was not becoming some promising "industrial" city by the end of the XVth century if i remember correctly?

There was definitely potential, I'm arguing that the problems where more subject to the government's action than just bullion. A shortage of silver in the 14th century was hurting liquidity in the European economy as a whole in a relative manner, there was still silver; just not enough for the amount of transactions needed. Similarly an influx of silver was only a surplus when it is beyond the ability of the economy to use it, if the Spanish economy was well off and expanding then it would've been able to make good use of the silver as lubricant for its economy. Inflation was the symptom of an ailing economy and an aggravater but not the cause of it, the cause of it was that there simply wasn't enough productivity for the demands of the Spanish crown's wars so producers raised prices demanding greater compensation.

 

[Fernando Perla]

What do you mean with reinforcing?

To apply the terms of the treaty, with naval patrolling for example.

 

[pompejus]

To apply the terms of the treaty, with naval patrolling for example.

If they have less money than OTL, they have less money to spend it on these kind of things.

 

[Fernando Perla]

If they have less money than OTL, they have less money to spend it on these kind of things.

So the English and French would have had been able to colonize the Americas in the first half of the 16th century?

 

[Fernando Perla]

And, would the Spanish have had been able to contain Islam without Mexico and Peru?

 

[pompejus]

So the English and French would have had been able to colonize the Americas in the first half of the 16th century?

I don't think the treaty of Tordesillas was the major reason the English and French did not do much colonising in the America's in the early 16th century and even if it was, it was not the Spanish enforcement of OTL.

 

[Fernando Perla]

I don't think the treaty of Tordesillas was the major reason the English and French did not do much colonising in the America's in the early 16th century and even if it was, it was not the Spanish enforcement of OTL.

Perhaps they didn't have much resources?

 

[Fernando Perla]

Would Verrazzano have had gone straight to Mexico?