Italian Victory at Adwa?

On March 1st 1896 Italian forces engaged Ethiopian trrops at the battle of Adwa. 20,000 Italians attacked in the early morning expecting to find their enemy asleep. Instead they found them awake after church service and were utterly defeated allowing Ethiopia would remain unconquered until the eve of the second world war.

What would the effects be of an Italian victory at Adwa?
What is Russia's reaction?
 
Why would Russia's reaction be especially important/significant? I think Russian reaction due to seeing Ethiopians as their Orthodox brothers is a bit of a stretch.

No Rastafarian religion ITTL.

The real question is how this affects the rise of Italian fascism.
 
Why would Russia's reaction be especially important/significant? I think Russian reaction due to seeing Ethiopians as their Orthodox brothers is a bit of a stretch.

No Rastafarian religion ITTL.

The real question is how this affects the rise of Italian fascism.

Welcome to the board. Italian fascism would likely not occur even if they lost in a slightly different way due to the butterfly effect essentially wiping the historical plate clean, so it's kind of irrelevent.

As for the topic itself; it seems spies sent by Ras Alula (Emperor Menelik's chief military adviser) were responsible for alerting the Ethiopian emperor to the Italian advance. The Ethiopians still outnumbered the Italians over 5 times, but should the spies be killed or captured by Italian troops or Italian spies, and word is sent that the Italians should press their attack, then maybe the surprise could lead to some alternative consequences.

However, the Italian weaponry and communications were outdated as hell; that's not to say the Ethiopians had it better, but the Italians weren't exactly up for it. Morale was also low.
 

Esopo

Banned
italy didnt have the will to fight a long war and to send enough forces in order to submit ethiopia. A victory against so much superior numbers is out of question.
 
I've read that logistically the Abyssinian army was on it's last legs. The Italian commander at the time recognized this and recommended that the Italian army avoid battle until simple logistics caused the Abyssinian army to shrink and partially disband before attacking.

If the Italians manage to defeat and subjugate Abyssinia they'll certainly have their hands full with trying to administer the new territory. I doubt they'll try to take Libya in such a scenario...and with no Italo-Turkish War to convince the Balkan League to gang up on the Ottomans the Balkan Wars are going to be delayed and different...leading to a very different World War 1.
 
A italian victory at Adwa mean that the Crispi goverment get a lifesaving shot and Giolitti return to power can be delayed or even butterflyed away, this mean that the tie with the Triple alliance will be mantained and even enlarged (as he thinked to come to terms with Austria in dividing the Balkans and the Meditterean between them) and more tension with France. Regarding Lybia even if occupied with Ethiopia (who will probably more a protectorate as a proper occupation will be hard and bloody and too costly to Italy...but knowing Crispi it will not out of question), Italy will try to extend the influence here for strategic reason, but with a lot less pressure as there is not national pride to avenge
 
italy didnt have the will to fight a long war and to send enough forces in order to submit ethiopia. A victory against so much superior numbers is out of question.

What did the Ethiopians had at the time? A 5:1 numerical advantage of African soldiers against European soldiers isn't necessarily that superior.
 

Esopo

Banned
What did the Ethiopians had at the time? A 5:1 numerical advantage of African soldiers against European soldiers isn't necessarily that superior.

thats true when europeans have much superior equipment or favourable terrain, both things which italians didnt have.
 
What did the Ethiopians had at the time? A 5:1 numerical advantage of African soldiers against European soldiers isn't necessarily that superior.

It is a big deal when the Ethiopian army is only slightly behind the Italian army, Ethiopia was able to remain independent largely because of its modernized military which could fight back against potential colonizers.
 
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