Italian territorial losses if it joins the central powers

Too the POD

While Italy joining the war on the face of it provides the CP with a large advantage there is also the possibility that it keeps the Ottomans Neutral or even on the side of the Entente.

Let me explain my thinking here

Italy saw the Balkans as her sphere of influence and I can see them moving in to ensure that Austria does not gobble up the whole area after ‘defeating Serbia’ and this might lead to them attacking Greece.

This leads to the Ottoman Empire leaning towards the Entente either as pro Entente neutral or a full player I the region

This keeps the straights open for transport to Russia and allows the Entente (Particularly France and the Commonwealth) from getting bogged down in the Middle East

This may result in some very strange bedfellows with the Greeks, Turks and Russians all fighting alongside each other in that region

But then war is a funny old game

EDIT: Perhaps Milne grows a pair and attacks Goeben before the declaration of War (blame on the very confusing signals from Winston) while she is coaling in Messina on the 5th and 6th of Aug sinking/crippling both vessels.

The act angers Italy (perhaps there is colataral damage?) and this puts the 'swingometer' of public and political opinion firmly into the CP camp.

More than this, assuming Italian troops are stalemated in the Alps against France, then the obvious outlet for them is Albania (something they did as part of the Entente). If they do this early enough they will not only collapse the Serbs earlier (and ensure they don't evacuate), they will also probably bring Greece into the war against the Central Powers as they will clash in Southern Albania / Epirus (as per OTL). So instead of Gallipoli the Anglo French expeditionary force gains full access to Greece. This probably ends up as an alt-Isonzo for Italy.

It might prevent the Ottoman front too if Italy jumps to the CP early enough.
 
The Serbs didn't want Istria, wishing to pretty much being Greater Serbia. It matches pretty well to their desires at the Breakup of Yugoslavia, with Bosnia, Herzovigina, and chunks of Slavonia going under Belgrade's rule. I expect the King of Montenegro is still screwed over here, with his land swiped. And the Germans weren't too anger about the land lost to Denmark, as it overwhelmingly voted for Denmark, and there had been a referendum promised when the Prussians invaded it begin with. Heck, when Hitler invaded Denmark he didn't reannex it. Though that was partially because he thought Denmark would make a single Gau.
Istria is pretty much part of Slovenia anyway, and Friul right next to it - good enough reason for expansonistic megalomaniacs. Remember, the Grater Serbia map the Serbian nationalists were using before the war didnt have Bosnia on it either yet it happened, and much more.
 
Istria is pretty much part of Slovenia anyway, and Friul right next to it - good enough reason for expansonistic megalomaniacs. Remember, the Grater Serbia map the Serbian nationalists were using before the war didnt have Bosnia on it either yet it happened, and much more.
It had Bosnia on it. That was the entire point of the war. You are probably thinking about Croatia, and that was because they asked to join. You are speaking of a hypothetical map, right?
 
It had Bosnia on it. That was the entire point of the war. You are probably thinking about Croatia, and that was because they asked to join.
The middle ages Kingdom of Serbia was the propaganda goal, there's a good map of it in Sleepwalkers, to quote:
The first commandment of Serbian policy, he argued, must be the
‘principle of national unity’; by which he meant the unification of all Serbs within the boundaries of a
Serbian state: ‘Where a Serb dwells, that is Serbia.’ The historical template for this expansive vision
of Serbian statehood was the medieval empire of Stepan Dušan, a vast swathe of territory
encompassing most of the present-day Serbian republic, along with the entirety of present-day
Albania, most of Macedonia, and all of Central and Northern Greece, but not Bosnia, interestingly
enough

As all others irredentisms this too evolves over time.
 
You are going to need to link to where this person actually says this.
The book "Sleepwalkers", i could post a link to an online version but that would probably violate a rule or two against copyright infringement, i dont want issues with the mods.
Here's the source the author is citing:
For the text of Načertanije, see Dragoslav Stranjaković, ‘Kako postalo Garašaninovo “Načertanije”’, in Spomenik Srpske Kraljevske Akademije, VCI (1939), pp. 64–115, here p. 75, cited in Wolf Dietrich Behschnitt, Nationalismus bei Serben und Kroaten 1830–1914 (Munich, 1980), p. 55.
And
Cited in Behschnitt, Nationalismus, p. 57; see also Horst Haselsteiner, ‘Nationale Expansionsvorstellungen bei Serben und Kroaten im 19. Jahrhundert’, Österreichische Osthefte, 39 (1997), pp. 245–54, here pp. 247–8.
 
Say Italy joins in 1914 believing France will soon fall and the central powers still lose

What territory would Italy lose

If Italy joins before the Ottomans, the Ottomans may join the Entente to get revenge. Remember the Italians had only just finished mugging the Ottomans 3 years before.

So potentially Libya is returned to the Ottomans, as are the Dodecanese. Albania may go back to the Ottomans if Greece doesn't join the war, otherwise Greece gets at least Southern Albania and maybe all of Albania. If Greece joins early enough they may gain the Dodecanese instead of the Ottomans.

Eritrea, or perhaps half of it, could go to France, with the Western half going to Anglo-Egyptian Sudan maybe. Italian Somalia would be taken by the Brits (though if the Ottomans perform well in the war and well in the negotiations, I can see them wanting Italian Somalia and maybe getting it).

Of course, the Ottomans also saw Russia as the main threat, so Italy joining before them may only encourage the Ottomans to join the CP.

I agree that Italy would likely lose more territory to France in this TL.

If both Italy and the Ottomans join, then Greece is much more likely to join the CPs (there was a strong pro-German party in Greece and the CPs could offer them places like British-occupied Cyprus and Southern Macedonia) but even more likely if the war looks to be for the CPs, Romania could join after Tannenburg or after the successful counter-attacks in Galicia. Romania joining at the right time is potentially much more useful that Italy joining. With Romania and the Ottomans on side, the CPs have significantly improved shot at winning the war.

As for Italy itself, likely it has an utterly miserable war as the French navy and the RN ravage their coasts and wreck their trade. Economic collapse worse than that of Austria Hungary and outright famine are distinct possibilities. My view is that Italy would only be a liability for the CPs, though it joining might persuade more useful countries, like Romania, to join at the right moment.

This is, by the way, mostly because of geography. Italy's long coasts and alpine frontiers mean she is meat for the RN and she can't easily attack her landward neighbours. Romania, on the other hand, has a strategic position on the Eastern Front, so joining at the right moment can lead to significant benefits. Of course, if, like OTL the Romanians join at the wrong moment in the war... Well... They are actually a net burden for their allies.

fasquardon
 
For the Tyrol, I suppose it would depend on which post-war government the Entente liked better. If Italy's got a communist partisan problem, you give it to Austria. If Austria's got no solution to the collapse of their empire and things are looking shaky, maybe give it to Italy. If no side presents an advantage, status quo wins and it stays with Austria. If both are a mess: I personally say give it to Switzerland, but then I'm not in the least qualified to be a Versailles diplomat.:p
 

raharris1973

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For the Tyrol, I suppose it would depend on which post-war government the Entente liked better. If Italy's got a communist partisan problem, you give it to Austria. If Austria's got no solution to the collapse of their empire and things are looking shaky, maybe give it to Italy. If no side presents an advantage, status quo wins and it stays with Austria

If South Tyrol/Trentino remain Austrian, Italy's cumulative medal count over the last century's winter olympics goes down drastically, while Austria is even more of a powerhouse.

----What has gotten Italy onto the CP side anyway?

a) Austria makes territorial concessions to Italy with the onset of the war or July crisis?
b) Austria does no favors to Italy but Italy is anti-Serbian because Italy grabbed Albania from the Ottomans?
c) France and Italy have just had perpetually crappy relations? Perhaps the British and French vetoed Italian aggression against the Ottomans in 1911?

It is especially important to justify Italy's alternate decision in a scenario where the Germans fail big at or before the Marne? [Often, the Germans doing better and taking Paris or crushing the French army in the initial campaign is treated as the precondition for Italy to join on the CP side]
 
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