Italian Somaliland and Eritrea, lasting to the present?

Is it possible to get them to last to the present? Libya gets discussed semi-regularly because the oil makes them a sexy ATL. How about these two comparatively obscure colonies?

Italy IIRC had around 80,000 people in Eritrea by 1940, and I don’t recall the Somaliland numbers, but know that some Italian administrators allegedly considered it home by the end of the UN mandate. Both colonies had small populations, but that will change somewhat as increases in life expectancy occur, and even with rapid increases in literacy/economic condition/lifespan/access to contraceptives it could take several generations for TFR to fall to below the replacement rate.

What conditions are the biggest detriment to greater Italian settlement? Would greater investment, the emergence of new technology to fight tropical disease, and air conditioning be sufficient? And can they partially assimilate the locals after they begin their true demographic boom, to the point of maintaining the colonies even with the ethnic Italian share of the population likely taking a big decline in the final third of the 20th century?


Would a scenario with a neutral Italy in WWII and no Ethiopia invasion do it? I would assume that no joining the Axis and no Ethiopian occupation would be required.

If Italy discovers Libyan oil by fluke around 1916 and begins setting up infrastructure by 1919, stays neutral in WWI until the final months selling to both sides, stays neutral in (a) WWII until the final months selling to both sides, and stays out of Ethiopia, does that do it?

Also, how much priority is Italy likely going to give these?
 
Is it possible to get them to last to the present? Libya gets discussed semi-regularly because the oil makes them a sexy ATL. How about these two comparatively obscure colonies?

Italy IIRC had around 80,000 people in Eritrea by 1940, and I don’t recall the Somaliland numbers, but know that some Italian administrators allegedly considered it home by the end of the UN mandate. Both colonies had small populations, but that will change somewhat as increases in life expectancy occur, and even with rapid increases in literacy/economic condition/lifespan/access to contraceptives it could take several generations for TFR to fall to below the replacement rate.

What conditions are the biggest detriment to greater Italian settlement? Would greater investment, the emergence of new technology to fight tropical disease, and air conditioning be sufficient? And can they partially assimilate the locals after they begin their true demographic boom, to the point of maintaining the colonies even with the ethnic Italian share of the population likely taking a big decline in the final third of the 20th century?

I hate having to put it this way, but unless the bulk of the locals were somehow pushed to the interior and settlers were moved in, eastern Prussia clearance style, those places would end up like Algeria.

Would a scenario with a neutral Italy in WWII and no Ethiopia invasion do it? I would assume that no joining the Axis and no Ethiopian occupation would be required.

There are good chances that neutrality would lead to Eritrea being united to Somaliland, although the French and the British would perhaps keep the coastline.

If Italy discovers Libyan oil by fluke around 1916 and begins setting up infrastructure by 1919, stays neutral in WWI until the final months selling to both sides, stays neutral in (a) WWII until the final months selling to both sides, and stays out of Ethiopia, does that do it?

Also, how much priority is Italy likely going to give these?

Trace oil could possibly be discovered during WWI, but I don't know how much there is to be pumped with traditional means and how much that would be an indicator of deeper deposits (the majority in Libya).

1919 is not credible. Italy was in a state of upheaval (Biennio Rosso) and the control over Libya was rather limited. It would take at best until 1925 only to have a safe area to operate in. Then somehow guess there's oil at a high depth and hire Mr. Hughes to start prospecting.
Then build all the necessary infrastructure. Too many things have to go right, but I saw a detailed scenario somewhere on this forum.
 
IIRC Eritrea was fairly happy with Italy. After the war there was an effort by locals (a mix of Italians in the country and Eritreans) to resist being made part of Ethiopia in favor of being an Italian Mandate like Somaliland. During the war, future Eritrean Independence leaders like Hamid Idris Awate supported the Italian Guerilla effort against Britain and Italian Ascari Eritrean troops were pretty supportive of Italy (granted, if you're an Eritrean who signs up for the Italian military you're a self-selected demographic).

There were about 140,000 Eritrean Ascari. To put this in context, there were 835,900 people in the country in 1943 (and this includes ~140,000 Italians I think) and 1,422,300 people in the country in 1960. Granted, conscription was a practice used so that might be a meaningless figure in terms of gauging how much support there was for Italy.
 
IIRC Eritrea was fairly happy with Italy. After the war there was an effort by locals (a mix of Italians in the country and Eritreans) to resist being made part of Ethiopia in favor of being an Italian Mandate like Somaliland.

Mandate being the operative word. Eritreans, or to be precise the educated elite, didn't want to be part of Ethiopia. That doesn't mean they wanted to be part of Italy, especially second-class citizens thereof.

Without the war and without significant demographic changes I give those regions perhaps 20 extra years, then they will explode.

How do you see them lasting to this day?
 
Top