Italian Neutrality in WW2 - What happens to East Africa?

[PolishMagnet]

In a situation where fascist Italy remains neutral through WW2, I became curious as to what might happen to East Africa. Everyone always seems to focus only on Europe and Libya, but Italy also had territory in the Dodecanese and East Africa (esp. after the invasion of Abyssinia).

Assuming Italy:

• Invaded Abyssinia
• Invaded Albania
• "Intervened" in Yugoslavia (ie supported Ustashe in starting a civil war, following the OTL partition borders)
• NOT passed racial laws
• Goes to Ciano after Mussolini dies (c. 1962?)
• Democratises after Ciano's death (c.1983?) or in his lifetime

I think probably Italy would try to do a divide and conquer strategy - their rule over Eritrea was quite solid, so I'm more wondering what would happen with their newly conquered land in Ethiopia. Most likely, the mountains would be excellent hiding places for insurgents, and local guerillas would probably roam the interior with quite a lot of freedom. Italian rule would then be something like American-back South Vietnam, where rule was only effective in the large cities and places along protected roads.

 

[Yankeewolf]

Something in-between a negotiated settlement and fiercely fighting against independentist rebels.

Against Ethiopian Insurgents, empower Somalians and Eritreans under "Responsible Governments" and ensure that Ethiopia remains a wartorn mess of a country that is regularly devastated by Italian-backed 'anti-terror' operations conducted by Somalia or an enlarged Eritrea.

 

[PolishMagnet]

Right so maybe following the internal borders they set up historically.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Probably goes the way of Libya OTL

 

[PolishMagnet]

Then perhaps a full breakup of Ethiopia as they are racked by various ethnic and ideological militias?

Edit: not sure why my post was split up...

 

[Lalli]

One thing: Since Italy doesn't step to WW2 Italo Balbo probably not die in 1940's so he would succeed Mussolini.

But to topic: Italy will lost Ethiopia with way or another, probably after Algerian style war. Italy might be able to keep Somalia and Eritrea. Losing Ethiopia probably will be end of fascist regime.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Probably goes the way of Libya OTL

Except that OTL Libya was taken over by the allies for several years, whereas here that wouldn't apply to any of the Italian colonies in Africa

 

[Evil Crusader]

Then perhaps a full breakup of Ethiopia as they are racked by various ethnic and ideological militias?

Edit: not sure why my post was split up...

Would agree with those borders, at least for what Italy could easily retain in Eritrea and Somalia through another few decades of brutal top-down, modern state-sanctioned, ethnic replacement, especially as Libya becomes a net contributor rather than a drain.
They'd still try and fail to incorporate Ethiopia too, and that ulcer probably eventually does in the regime.

 

[Maburo]

Italy would hold on to their colonies in a similar way Portugal did. A neutral Italy has massive implications for Francoist Spain, which will no longer be so isolated. In fact, Francos regime will not so much be associated with the "the axis" as OTL, but with catholic fascism, seen as similar to Italy, another neutral power. The west would see the fascists as different from the nazis, and useful allies against the Soviets. Italy and Spain may even be invited to join NATO at some point in the cold war- Portugal joined OTL in 1949 and also had an arguably similar regime.

But yeah, regarding the colonies, definately a Portugal scenario I think

 

[sdgottsch]

Definitely agree with you about East African colonies ending up how Portugal's did...but the Libya topic alternative POD is very interesting.

With oil fields being developed after the war, the ability for increased European and especially Italian migration (to escape the terrible destruction from the war), and finally the lack of destruction of the Italian infrastructure means Italy could become a major European power with oil to maintain development and an ability to support much greater industrial development.

 

[Maburo]

Definitely agree with you about East African colonies ending up how Portugal's did...but the Libya topic alternative POD is very interesting.

With oil fields being developed after the war, the ability for increased European and especially Italian migration (to escape the terrible destruction from the war), and finally the lack of destruction of the Italian infrastructure means Italy could become a major European power with oil to maintain development and an ability to support much greater industrial development.

Oh yeah there are massive ramifications for Libya, and it could be so interesting to see where that goes! I expect native Libyans will resist and struggle, possibly developing a movement similar to/allied to the Algerian independence movement. But the oil would make Italy fight tooth and nail to keep control over this territory, and Italy being undamaged by the war, and Libya having a much smaller population than Algeria, the struggle would be much harder for the Libyans than it was OTL for the Algerians....

 

[PolishMagnet]

One thing: Since Italy doesn't step to WW2 Italo Balbo probably not die in 1940's so he would succeed Mussolini.

Wikipedia states that his appointment as governor of Libya was a sort of political exile away from Rome, because Mussolini feared him politically. Why do you think Balbo was more likely a successor than Ciano?

How would Balbo differ from Mussolini? Would he "open up" Italy or maintain fascism as it was?

 

[Evil Crusader]

Wikipedia states that his appointment as governor of Libya was a sort of political exile away from Rome, because Mussolini feared him politically. Why do you think Balbo was more likely a successor than Ciano?

How would Balbo differ from Mussolini? Would he "open up" Italy or maintain fascism as it was?

Ciano was reliant on Mussolini's support. With Mussolini gone, he has to find another support group. Balbo was very popular, and he could really build off of Libya becoming a rich part of the Italian metropole.

 

[PolishMagnet]

Ciano was reliant on Mussolini's support. With Mussolini gone, he has to find another support group. Balbo was very popular, and he could really build off of Libya becoming a rich part of the Italian metropole.

Wouldnt the distance make it difficult to maintain a political foothold in Rome? Although I could see development of oil in Libya really helping Balbo in a potential race/struggle after Il Duce's death.

 

[Polish Eagle]

Oh yeah there are massive ramifications for Libya, and it could be so interesting to see where that goes! I expect native Libyans will resist and struggle, possibly developing a movement similar to/allied to the Algerian independence movement. But the oil would make Italy fight tooth and nail to keep control over this territory, and Italy being undamaged by the war, and Libya having a much smaller population than Algeria, the struggle would be much harder for the Libyans than it was OTL for the Algerians....

Indeed, IOTL in 1950, Italy's population was some 46 M, while Libya's was barely over 1 M. Algeria had roughly 10 times Libya's population during its war for independence.

In all honesty, I could see fascist Italy successfully creating an Italian majority in Libya.

Ethiopia is another matter entirely.

 

[The Gunslinger]

Eritrea was well on its way to an Italian majority by WW2, but if Italy tries integrating it into broader East Africa they might lose it when the the rest of the colony unravels.

 

[Admiral Bloonbeard]

Except that OTL Libya was taken over by the allies for several years, whereas here that wouldn't apply to any of the Italian colonies in Africa

What I meant is the pacification of Libya

 

[CaptainCalvert]

What I meant is the pacification of Libya

That makes sense.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Wouldnt the distance make it difficult to maintain a political foothold in Rome? Although I could see development of oil in Libya really helping Balbo in a potential race/struggle after Il Duce's death.

It's not that distant, and besides, Libya now is part of the metropole, a rich frontier land that is only getting more and more important for the fortunes of the Fascist cause.
Hard to shove aside the man who made the proverbial 'box full of sand' become the crown jewel of Italian wealth.

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

Oh yeah there are massive ramifications for Libya, and it could be so interesting to see where that goes! I expect native Libyans will resist and struggle, possibly developing a movement similar to/allied to the Algerian independence movement. But the oil would make Italy fight tooth and nail to keep control over this territory, and Italy being undamaged by the war, and Libya having a much smaller population than Algeria, the struggle would be much harder for the Libyans than it was OTL for the Algerians....

Mussolini and Balbo already crushed the Libyan resistance in a brutal pacification in the late 20s. The largest cities and infrastructure are controlled by Italy and you can expect tens of thousands of Italians to come once oil is discovered. At most you can expect occasional raids but Libyan Geography would make a rebellion almost impossible. There aren't mountains for rebels to hide at like in Algeria.

Wikipedia states that his appointment as governor of Libya was a sort of political exile away from Rome, because Mussolini feared him politically. Why do you think Balbo was more likely a successor than Ciano?

How would Balbo differ from Mussolini? Would he "open up" Italy or maintain fascism as it was?

Balbo can make a strong power base in Libya but he would be away from Rome's politics, which is an issue especially in a world before internet. He has the popular sway to get support to take over, he also has the status as a Quadrumvir, one of the founders of Fascism, which can give him sway. And he would likely have the Italian Air Force by his side.

Ciano wouldn't be successor, the guy was terribly unpopular within the party and grew to be despised by his only political patron (Mussolini) to the point the Duce trusted more Ciano's deputy on foreign affairs.

Balbo would definitely not be a liberal, there is a wrong assumption that the Italian Fascists would liberalize and the country would become a democracy in time. As if Fascism is less authoritarian than Nazism or Juche Korea, but that is only due to the King and the appeasement they had to make with the Italian establishment. The Fascists didn't have full power in Italy before WWII and the King was still technically in charge of the country, once he had an opportunity, Victor Emmanuel turned on them when he was sure he wouldn't get shot.

Italy won't become any more liberal if the Fascists can solidify their hold through military victories.