Italian Nationalism in CP Victory?

Here's something I've been thinking about - in the event that Italy joins the Central Powers, for whatever reason, instead of the Entente, and manages to snag, say, Nice and Savoy and perhaps Tunisia in the peace agreement, would the nation still see a rise of Far Right Nationalism? Now, obviously, due to butterflies, I do not expect to see the Fascistas in their OTL form, or Benito Mussolini rise to power. I'm just wondering because, in the event of this scenario, Germany has smashed France by late 1914, brought Russia to the table without inciting a revolution, and is the clear winner.

There's no red menace, Italy has managed to fulfil some of their irridentist claims to France; personally I don't think the conditions are right for a nationalist party to arise. I mean, theoretically, we could see Italy clamouring now for their claims on Austro-Hungarian territory. Didn't the Central Powers make some promises to Italy in the same way the Entente did?

I don't see them getting Albania just yet; the southern Balkans are within Vienna's sphere of influence, and it's likely that neither Vienna nor Rome wants to see the other dominating the Adriatic Coast too much.
 
Those are sizable gains and a short, not all that bloody compared to OTL war. Italy would probably be pretty content and have a normal, healthy political system for the foreseeable future. As for going after the Austrians, they just participated in the destruction of their only potential allies in that endeavor, so they'd need to wait for a better opportunity.
 
Those are sizable gains and a short, not all that bloody compared to OTL war. Italy would probably be pretty content and have a normal, healthy political system for the foreseeable future. As for going after the Austrians, they just participated in the destruction of their only potential allies in that endeavor, so they'd need to wait for a better opportunity.

That's what I imagined. If the Austro-Hungarian Empire faced collapse later on, perhaps Italy would have her chance then. I wonder if success in the war would make the Austrians more or less likely to enact ethnic reforms.
 
In the event of a late 1914 victory, i doubt that the italians will get so much, probably just Tunisia and some border adjustment but nothing of world shattering...as i expect that both treaty with France and Russia will not be draconian with a very short war; frankly i doubt that the British will play any direct role if the conflict is so short.
Much depend on how the italian delegation will be treated, as OTL it was Wilson humiliation of italy diplomatics more than the effective results that created the mutilated victory myth; on that i expect Wien to deny Rome every inch of her territory as compensation and this will create tension and funnel the flame of resentment towards his war allies...but at least a so short war mean that loss in blood and treasure and the sufference of the population will be a pittance comparated to OTL, and this will greatly help on keep socialist and fascist at bay, even if riot, protest and political violence will happen and in the end the moderate socialist will be most probable winner
Italian nationalism (and interest) will now have Austria-Hungary as objective, well to be honest it will just return to the previous stance now that the conflict with France is over and it's almost assured that next time the treaty of alliance with Berlin and Wien will not be signed.
 
In the event of a late 1914 victory, i doubt that the italians will get so much, probably just Tunisia and some border adjustment but nothing of world shattering...as i expect that both treaty with France and Russia will not be draconian with a very short war; frankly i doubt that the British will play any direct role if the conflict is so short.
Much depend on how the italian delegation will be treated, as OTL it was Wilson humiliation of italy diplomatics more than the effective results that created the mutilated victory myth; on that i expect Wien to deny Rome every inch of her territory as compensation and this will create tension and funnel the flame of resentment towards his war allies...but at least a so short war mean that loss in blood and treasure and the sufference of the population will be a pittance comparated to OTL, and this will greatly help on keep socialist and fascist at bay, even if riot, protest and political violence will happen and in the end the moderate socialist will be most probable winner
Italian nationalism (and interest) will now have Austria-Hungary as objective, well to be honest it will just return to the previous stance now that the conflict with France is over and it's almost assured that next time the treaty of alliance with Berlin and Wien will not be signed.

Well, the idea for the victory is a 'Germany captures Paris in late 1914' scenario. It's vague but I don't need it to be anymore complex than that. I imagine with Paris now in German hands the French will come to terms and Germany can carve out a pretty empire in Africa. In the east, once France falls, Russia too will come to the table. Germany will be left with a small Kingdom of Poland and Grand Duchy of Lithuania buffer state. In the Balkans, A-H gets their client-Serbia and Montenegro and some minor border adjustments with both. Italy and Austria jointly occupy Albania but both vacate in the peace-settlement, leaving the Prince of Wied in charge. Italy snaps up Nice and Savoy before France officially surrenders and is given them as a tossed bone to a dog, as well as Tunisia when a token colonial force occupies Tunis. Of course, Bulgaria grabs Macedonia, Rumania snags Bessarabia, and Greece picks up the Northern Epirus.

That is what Europe looks like.

In both OTL and this scenario, Italy is technically on the winning side, and in both OTL and this scenario, they only receive a small concession for their victory.

I figured that the same myth of OTL - that they were screwed in the peace negotiations - might occur ITTL too. As you say, though, the smaller loss of blood will mean less political violence in the home country (maybe not so for France, though). I wonder if socialism would be as severe a threat without Lenin going to Russia. Maybe that's the way Italy turns instead.
 
From my limited knowledge of Italy in WW1, if this is a war over by Christmas 1914 then Italy is probably in a better position politically than it was OTL 1915. The breakdown of trade and the flow of resources greatly damaged the Italian economy during its period of neutrality, to the point that I think economically they weren't significantly better off than the belligerent powers. AFAIK one of the bigger reasons for them jumping on the Entente side was to ensure the flow of coal and other resources from Britain. If the war is over by 1914, then presumably Italy regains access to markets faster than OTL when they joined the war.

Another point worth making is just how incredibly unpopular the idea of going to war was in 1914 all across Europe. People did not want to see their children/parents/siblings die in some horrendous conflict, and only got behind the war once the fighting itself created the grievances to fuel it i.e. the desire for revenge on those who actually did the killing of their children/parents/siblings. If the war is over by 1914 any country that did not suffer tremendously in the ceasefire is probably not going to be all that discontent, as they would have a much lesser feeling of having spent blood and treasure in order to gain something. For Italy this would probably be even more pronounced, as if it is a war over by 1914 then I doubt all that many Italian soldiers would have died simply due to the timeframe needed to get them to front and the fact that the Franco-Italian border is challenging to deploy large armies. Some more casualties may be caused by Italians deployed to the Franco-German front, but again I doubt many would have even got there by the end of 1914.

One more issue is dividing up issues caused/exacerbated by the war from those already present in Italy. Italy had major divisions, including a fairly significant socialist party that was very much opposed to war. These issues would have existed even without any war at all, and will continue after this short one. What actually happens I cannot say, but even if we could view this world interpreting any troubles that arise as being caused by the war would be difficult.
 
It mostly depends on how sly will be Germany (whose interest is to keep Italy busy rivaling France and vice versa), but for sure Italy wouldn''t gain that much unless their military suddenly manages to do something huge and daring (and near-ASB) like a successful landing at Marseille.
I would expect Tunisia to be awarded to Italy, maybe one between Corsica or Nizza, and nothing more; and those are still very good additions.
And depending on how much A-H manages to throw her weight around, even that might not happen.

As others said though, it's not a matter of how many territories are gained, but one of perception and economic stability. Both will be good here, so Mussolini is far more likely to end up as a leader of the revolutionary left if anything.
 
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