Italian invasion of Yugoslavia?

So, simply because a WW2 game I'm playing has had it happen, I'm kind of curious, what kind of PODs would be needed for Italy to invade Yugoslavia, rather than Greece, at first? The closest reasoning I can get ingame, as it's only tactical, seems to be a more successful campaign in the Alps, and thus a more 'confident' mainland army, but I'm curious if there's anything beyond that? Any kind of specific claims Italy had, or such?
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
Italy could simply invade when the Germans did OTL and do the brunt of the fighting. I think they'd be successful, but not as quickly as the Germans were. The Yugoslav army was in disarray and the country was as well, with too many avenues of invasion open to the Axis.

They never needed to invade Greece, of course. There was concern that doing so was logistically going to be impossible for them (it was a disaster), as they had to supply from Italy to Albania down to Greece, and the troops used for the Greek invasion were really kind of lousy, as the North African Army had the brunt of the motorized and modernized forces while the relatively poor Royal Army supplied most of the troops in East Africa and Albania. They attacked into bad terrain and rapidly fell apart under the circumstances, with some silly amphibious attacks petering out or being canceled. It was a bad plan dreamed up by a novice Hearts of Iron 4 player, really.
 
So, simply because a WW2 game I'm playing has had it happen, I'm kind of curious, what kind of PODs would be needed for Italy to invade Yugoslavia, rather than Greece, at first? The closest reasoning I can get ingame, as it's only tactical, seems to be a more successful campaign in the Alps, and thus a more 'confident' mainland army, but I'm curious if there's anything beyond that? Any kind of specific claims Italy had, or such?

This reminds me of how much I need to go back and read up on diplomacy during this period. Reminds me of how much I've forgotten. But to answer your question, the Italians did have claims on Yugoslav territory, particularly on much of Dalmatia. Whilst this is one of the more valuable areas of Yugoslavia, it's long and narrow, and thus difficult to defend, which suggests that you'd have to have Yugoslavia partitioned. The Ustase was originally in exile in Italy. Whilst they became dominated by the Germans (largely to minimise the ability of the Italians to press their claims), without the Germans in the ring they would be forced to go along with Italy's demands.

The only feasible way I can see this outcome is if Mussolini was successful in aligning with Britain and France to contain Hitler and prevent the Anschluss with Austria. Whilst Germany had very strong economic ties with the Balkan states, without Austria they wouldn't be able to project military power in any meaningful way.

The Italians could well ally with Hungary, whose primary foreign policy objective was revision of the Treaty of Trianon and the Disestablishment of the Little Entente (Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and Romania). In a situation where the Anschluss is aborted, if the Nazis decide to move for Sudetenland and control of Bohemia-Moravia, rather than having Josef Tiso take over in Slovakia, the Germans will probably look for Hungarian support in the partition of Czechoslovakia. Hungary would also seek the return of Vojvodina. An Italian-aligned Austria might be interested in reannexing Slovenia, whilst Romania would seek Banat and Bulgaria Macedonia. Croatia and Bosnia could go under the Ustase, whilst Montenegro, Kosovo and Dalmatia are Italian. Serbia would likely be a rump puppet state. With as many regional powers supporting the move, I can see the international community just having to deal with it, especially with Britain and France's desire to retain Italian support against German expansionism.
 
Mussolini did plan to invade Yugoslavia in September 1940, but was persuaded not to do so by Hitler, who at that point wanted a peaceful southern flank. Instead, he attacked Greece a month later since he still felt the need to do something spectacular without Germany.

Something can probably be done to change Germany's opinion, or to make Italy ignore it, but I'm not sure what. Maybe if Hitler discovers the full extent of Yugoslavia's secret cooperation with France and Britain, he'd be willing to green-light Mussolini's adventure in Yugoslavia (in OTL the Germans discovered only bits and pieces).
 
Mussolini did plan to invade Yugoslavia in September 1940, but was persuaded not to do so by Hitler, who at that point wanted a peaceful southern flank. Instead, he attacked Greece a month later since he still felt the need to do something spectacular without Germany.

Something can probably be done to change Germany's opinion, or to make Italy ignore it, but I'm not sure what. Maybe if Hitler discovers the full extent of Yugoslavia's secret cooperation with France and Britain, he'd be willing to green-light Mussolini's adventure in Yugoslavia (in OTL the Germans discovered only bits and pieces).

The problem with your second point is that regardless of the existence of pro-Allied Yugoslav factions, the Nazis were basically content to allow Yugoslavia to remain untouched as long as they churning out copper, zinc and other metals destined for German factories. The only reason they put Operation 25 into action is because the pro-Allied coup threatened to cut off that supply.

At that point in time, Hitler just wanted a quiet southern flank in Europe so that he could invade the USSR on schedule. The Germans needed Yugoslav resources. So without a situation like OTL (basically Yugoslavia all but joining the Allies), which was essentially worst-case scenario for German interests in the region, the Germans wouldn't have invaded, or allowed anyone else to invade.
 
The problem with your second point is that regardless of the existence of pro-Allied Yugoslav factions, the Nazis were basically content to allow Yugoslavia to remain untouched as long as they churning out copper, zinc and other metals destined for German factories. The only reason they put Operation 25 into action is because the pro-Allied coup threatened to cut off that supply.

At that point in time, Hitler just wanted a quiet southern flank in Europe so that he could invade the USSR on schedule. The Germans needed Yugoslav resources. So without a situation like OTL (basically Yugoslavia all but joining the Allies), which was essentially worst-case scenario for German interests in the region, the Germans wouldn't have invaded, or allowed anyone else to invade.

That's a valid point. But the decision to attack Yugoslavia in OTL - after the pro-Allied coup had backpedaled on the whole pro-Allied thing - suggests that there is a certain amount of Yugoslav intrigue and shenanigans Hitler would not tolerate even if the metal supply might have continued in peace.
 
Given the disaster that the Greece invasion was, why would a Yugoslav invasion go better?

It's a bigger country. Has to be supplied overland (most of Greece is close to the ocean). And, as Germany discovered, has very effective partisans. I imagine the Italians could carve a largish chunk out against the regular army, maybe even nominally 'conquer' the whole place, but be sucked into a total morass. I don't see them actually conquering the whole country, but it might be possible.
 
Yugoslavia would be in a weak position. I do wonder if it might be more coherent given the nature of this existential threat: Croats in particular might be unhappy with Yugoslavia, but faced with an Italy aiming to annex large chunks of their territory they might be relatively disaffected compared to OTL.
 
An interesting set up but I think no matter what Italy would be biting off more then they could chew. Even with aid from Hungary, along with possible aid from Romania/Bulgaria, they would be trying to swallow too much.
 
It would have gone quote a bit better than Greece, but only to a certain extent - after all, one of the main forces in Yugoslavia's foundation was the need to resist Italian claims over mostly-Slav Dalmatia (and further attempts on Slovene territories).
Certainly, Italy would have fought harder/better too - it's right at the border, and motivations run higher than in the Greek campaign for sure.

Due to Italy's diplomatic posturing and GP status, however, the real outcome of the campaign depends on it; I'd expect before 1939 to be a negotiated peace once it becomes clear that neither part is strong enough to topple the other (especially as all the other majors would be giving Yugoslavia supplies) while in 1940 it's much more likely to end up either with a more decisive Italian victory (with France and Britain still hoping to keep Italy neutral) or a slightly better arrangement than OTL (with the invasion basically firing up the pro-Allies coup and Germany forced to chip in to preserve her own interests).
 
what is a natural division of Yugoslavia? had read that after the war two of the leaders met and agreed a Greater Croatia and Greater Serbia would have been better?

my fictional scenario was Italy playing to stay in Stresa Front or neutral and Germany-Hungary-Bulgaria in Little Axis vs. Little Entente (Czech-Yugoslavia-Romania.) once the Little Axis divided Czechoslovakia and made a puppet of Slovakia they adopted that strategy for Yugoslavia.

three way split of Yugoslavia with Croatia and Slovenia in federation, Bosnia-Albania-Kosovo, and SerBulgaria (fictional.)
 
three way split of Yugoslavia with Croatia and Slovenia in federation, Bosnia-Albania-Kosovo, and SerBulgaria (fictional.)

Those divisions don't really work. Albania wasn't a part of Bosnia, but regardless any Union between Bosnia and Kosovo probably wouldn't work, although if you were hell-bent, I guess you could attach Sandjak which would connect the two.

The Croats wouldn't be happy not having Bosnia, the Serbs wouldn't be happy being under Bulgaria and not having Kosovo, Vojvodina and Montenegro. Basically this scenario doesn't work at all.
 
In OTL Italians and Chetniks had a mostly good relationship, considering that most territories Italy wants are inhabited by croats, IF the Italians win their first engaments, they could make a deal with the serbs and sell the croats down the river.
 

Attachments

  • proposaljpg.jpg
    proposaljpg.jpg
    137.7 KB · Views: 2,202
In OTL Italians and Chetniks had a mostly good relationship, considering that most territories Italy wants are inhabited by croats, IF the Italians win their first engaments, they could make a deal with the serbs and sell the croats down the river.

That's actually a deal the Serbian élites could accept, actually - it could also prove good for Yugoslavia, as it would be far stabler with a single centerpiece nation.
The Ustase are gonna be hated by their own countrymen though - such a utter loss of Croat territory is a devastating blow to legitimacy.
 
Top