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Well we have a timeline where the Axis is replaced by a more cautious cooperation between the Third Reich and Italy.
Italy never joins the war in the West and decides to pursue the goal of its own sphere on the Balkan.
The war in Africa isn't happening and Italy attacks Yugoslavia alone while the world is preoccupied with Germany and Japan (inoficially pledging to keep order on the Balkan to secure the German flank).
Could Italy win in this scenario? How long would it take? Could they stomach the partisans?
My gut tells me that Italy would eventually overcome the Yugoslavian Army (after a prolonged campaign) because Yugoslavia has less internal cohesion than Greece. The partisans would be a grave problem though.
That is just a guess though. I am no Italy expert.