Italian Invasion of Yugoslavia in the early 40s

[Anchises]

Well we have a timeline where the Axis is replaced by a more cautious cooperation between the Third Reich and Italy.

Italy never joins the war in the West and decides to pursue the goal of its own sphere on the Balkan.

The war in Africa isn't happening and Italy attacks Yugoslavia alone while the world is preoccupied with Germany and Japan (inoficially pledging to keep order on the Balkan to secure the German flank).

Could Italy win in this scenario? How long would it take? Could they stomach the partisans?

My gut tells me that Italy would eventually overcome the Yugoslavian Army (after a prolonged campaign) because Yugoslavia has less internal cohesion than Greece. The partisans would be a grave problem though.

That is just a guess though. I am no Italy expert.

 

[Oldbill]

I'll have to look for the reference, but this was actually considered by Italy at one point. This was prior to the attack upon Greece, and Italy let slip the possibility of such an attack to Hitler, who discouraged the venture. I think the Italians would have their hands full with this one. There is a historical animosity between the two nations, the Yugoslav army is larger than Greece's, and the terrain (where the fighting will take place) is abysmal. As a side note, it has become somewhat of a stereotype to accuse the Italian fighting man of incompetence, cowardice and or apathy. This is, IMO, largely a result of wartime propaganda. It bears no relation to the truth, whatsoever. The Italian soldiers and sailors were dedicated, brave men, and fought well, especially considering the handicaps they were put under. So, when I say the Italians would have their hands full with the Yugoslavs, it is in no way a condemnation of the Italian troops. The RM will win out over the Yugoslav Navy, the disparity is simply too great. The odds are against the Yugoslavs in the aerial campaign, but they DO have some good aircraft, if they can keep the factories going, and possibly get replacement aircraft in, they can still contest the skies. The Italians will have more armor, and without the campaigns in N. Africa and Greece will have their best troops. What will be desperately needed is a good PLAN, not some last minute lash up pushed by Benito as in the OTL Greece debacle.
You will need to determine who the Yugoslavs are allied with by treaty. IIRC, they were with the Greeks, and supplies could be brought in via Greek ports. Not sure about other nations. That will be very important.
Could you post a link to the other TL you mentioned? I've not seen it.
Oldbill

 

[Inferus]

If Italy struggled with the British despite superior numbers and were turned back by the Greeks, there is no way they are beating Yugoslavia despite the actions of the Bosnians and the Croatians in the face of German might. The Serbians will hold them, the British will reinforce, and the Balkans will become a bloody quagmire. As Rommel stated, the Italian fighting man was a decent soldier; it was their officers who failed them. Yugoslavia will show that in spades.

 

[thaddeus]

don't think Germany would want to add Italy to its list of enemies but they also need all the minerals from Balkans, so this might be touchy situation? and they could well envision Italy switching sides since they have not joined Axis?

 

[Oldbill]

John Carr's "THE DEFENCES AND FALL OF GREECE 1940-41", second chapter details Mussolini's meddling and lack of planning. The bit about attacking Yugoslavia is on page 23. This was discussed in conjunction with an attack on Greece. In light of the POD here however, it isn't hard to see Mussolini attacking Yugoslavia instead of Greece. The disunity of the Yugoslav military when facing the Germans may well not be present ITTL. As I said earlier, there are long standing enmities between the two nations (Italy and Yugoslavia, and the AH Empire before a portion of it became Yugoslavia) dating back prior to WWI, and immediately afterwards.

 

[Anchises]

Thanks for the great answers!

Sounds reasonable that Yugoslavia wouldn't behave the same way in a war against Italy. As a long standing rival an attack by Italy might unite Yugoslavia to a degree.

But what about the Ustascha? Wouldn't they use the opportunity to rise up with Italian backing at least? They might support Italy with some small formations.

Would Yugoslavia be able to push back Italy behind the initial positions like the Greeks did IOTL? Or would the Italian offensive stall after some initial gains?

I ask this for a TL I am writing at the moment. My initial idea (after reading this thread) is that Italy has some success with the initial offensive and is able to make some territorial gains. Once the initial offensive stalls however the whole war turns into a stalemate. Stationary fronts, trenches and pointless offensives, the whole situation resembles WW1.

Italy is able to occasionally reach breakthroughs with local air superiority and tanks but is unable to capitalize on them due to a weak logistical system and "conservative" leadership that isn't able to lead a modern war.

Eventually Italy tries to bled the Yugoslavs white. British support for the Yugoslavs is limited (GB and Italy are not at war) so that might work. The casualties and the high costs of the war slowly erode Mussolinis position though.

Ustascha units are used by Italy. Mostly to secure the occupied areas but sometimes as expendable cannonfooder during offensives.

 

[lukedalton]

The problem in this scenario it's the disparity of forces, Italy remain a nation with bigger armed forces and industry than Jugoslavia; unlike the OTL invasion of Greece the invasion plan against our neighbour were usually kept updated as it was the most probable target of a military expansion, plus in this scenario there is no other front that siphon the italian resources, expecially the more modern unit.
More importantly without being involved in a greater conflict, Italy has more time to update the armed forces and not being kept out from the world markets mean that even the quality of the material used will be somewhat better.

on the other side, sure an italian invasion can unite the jugoslavian, but it's not a given, expecially looking at how OTL the nation basically melted and Benny spent a lot of time and money to support the Ustascia and all other separatist.

Finally, the italian goverment will try very hard to involve both Hungary and Bulgaria in the war effort so to attack Jugoslavia on various front, or at least mobilize so to divert some jugoslavian forces

 

[thaddeus]

John Carr's "THE DEFENCES AND FALL OF GREECE 1940-41", second chapter details Mussolini's meddling and lack of planning. The bit about attacking Yugoslavia is on page 23. This was discussed in conjunction with an attack on Greece. In light of the POD here however, it isn't hard to see Mussolini attacking Yugoslavia instead of Greece. The disunity of the Yugoslav military when facing the Germans may well not be present ITTL.

the Germans want a free hand to "reorder" the Balkans, IF Allied side acquiesces it might look like tacit partnership with Italy? and at this time German-Soviet cooperation ongoing, so the Soviets would be looking for rationale to intervene in Balkans? (something Germans resisted historically but they were presenting united front with Italy)

meaning Nazi regime might (or likely would) support Yugoslav side, quietly at first, to keep Italy (an unreliable ally) and USSR out.

 

[lukedalton]

meaning Nazi regime might (or likely would) support Yugoslav side, quietly at first, to keep Italy (an unreliable ally) and USSR out.

The Nazi have much better thing to do, like fight the British and prepare for Barbarossa than risking throw Italy in the Wallies side and expose their entire south flank by supporting the Jugoslavian...that are a much much more unrealiable ally than Italy.
I don't say that they will be particulary happy about the italian plan, but it will be not a surprise and in this scenatio have much less influence over the italians (and overall Europe) than OTL

 

[thaddeus]

the Germans want a free hand to "reorder" the Balkans, IF Allied side acquiesces it might look like tacit partnership with Italy? and at this time German-Soviet cooperation ongoing, so the Soviets would be looking for rationale to intervene in Balkans? (something Germans resisted historically but they were presenting united front with Italy)

meaning Nazi regime might (or likely would) support Yugoslav side, quietly at first, to keep Italy (an unreliable ally) and USSR out.

The Nazi have much better thing to do, like fight the British and prepare for Barbarossa than risking throw Italy in the Wallies side and expose their entire south flank by supporting the Jugoslavian...that are a much much more unrealiable ally than Italy.
I don't say that they will be particulary happy about the italian plan, but it will be not a surprise and in this scenatio have much less influence over the italians (and overall Europe) than OTL

so you project they are going to allow Italy to occupy right up to Romanian oilfields with Allies (really just GB at this point) complete acquiescence while moving forward with invasion of USSR (fueled largely by aforementioned oil supplier?)

historically the machinations in Balkans were what brought the countries into Axis, your point seems reasonable that they will prefer Italy over Yugoslavia albeit reluctantly. maybe taking the opportunity to annex the regions (from OTL) into Germany and Hungary?

more dire means might be taken against Romania, as that was primary aim of Hungary? and need would be greater to bring them into Axis?

 

[Historyman 14]

This pretty much gives the Germans and British a freehand. Germany won't be busy in North Africa, the Balkans, and Greece. It would not be wasting time, and men, and resources that would be use in Russia. It would avoid the screw ups of the Battle of Crete.

At the same time, the UK would have more forces in the Pacific to deal with Japan. Hong Kong would still fall, but the Japanese would have a harder time in Southeast Asia.

Could Greece support the Germans? (The August Regime had an aping of Fascism and the strong economic ties with Germany.) But if Italy never invades....Greece is a real question.

Invading Yugoslavia can still put Italy on the UK's bad-side. So it could still lose North Africa, but that would be it.

 

[lionhead]

i think its bad idea for Italy to do this. Yugoslavia will be able to concentrate their forces way more effectively and double the number of divisions the Italians will be facing on both fronts. I also don't see any mutinies from Croats, since they aren't promised anything by the Italians. Even if its early 1940, the Yugoslavs are stronger.

 

[Court Jester]

Italians would make a mess of it. The terrain through which they would attack favors the defender, and is not particullary conductive towards armored warfare. All advantages that Axis forces had during invasion of Yugoslavia are gone, so Yugoslavian forces can adequately man the frontlines, resulting in unimaginative Italian commanders bleeding their forces in assaults on hills the Yugoslav defenders are dug on.

IK-2 and IK-3 might end up with good reputation though.