Hey Everyone,
While researching my term papers for this semesters, I came across and interesting counter-factual article in the European Review of Economic History. To sum it all up, the author examined the potential effects of the League of Nations' extending their economic sanctions against Italy (in response to invading Abyssinia) to include coal, oil, and other strategic minerals (a proposal actually considered in OTL). His conclusion was, that while the sanctions would not affect Italy's conduct of the war, they would put a severe crimp in their economy and potentially force Italy to back down. However he also noted the potential of military escalation in response to said sanctions, which got me thinking about a plausible escalation of the Abyssinian Crisis...
POD November 2nd 1935: While discussing the impositions of economic sanctions on Italy in response to its recent invasion of Abyssinia, the League officials decide to include Proposal IVA which extended the embargo to coal, oil, pig iron and steel. This is due primarily to the prevailing view that the great disparity between Italian and Ethiopian military strengths would result in a short war requiring decisive action. (In OTL the League predicted a fairly lengthy conflict of around a year and so gradual economic sanctions were favoured. In TTL their initial analysis is more accurate resulting in a more drastic course of action being taken.) Though some politicians within Britain and France favour a policy of appeasement in the hopes of bringing Italy into an anti-German alliance, their proposals are shot down as many politicians view them as capitulatory.
November 5th: The Italian Government passes the Regio Decreto-Legge 31 ottobre 1935, no. I857 which raises the tariff and sales tax on crude oil and related commodities in anticipation of a League oil Embargo. (Passed in OTL but quickly rendered moot by lack of oil sanctions)
November 8th: The Italian I Corps and the Eritrean Corps capture the Abyssinian city of Makale thus marking the furthest extent of Italian troops into Abyssinia.
November 10th: Having just won re-election in a landslide victory, President Franklin Roosevelt of the USA agrees not to increase American oil exports to Italy beyond peace-time levels. He furthermore encourages American companies to follow such an embargo and if possible cut down on exports of oil to Italy. (Also happened in OTL)
November 16th: General Emilio De Bono, in charge of the Italian invasion of Abyssinia is promoted to Marshal of Italy for his actions in Ethiopia.
November 18th 1935: League Sanctions go into effect against Italy. In response, Mussolini urges Marshal De Bono to press the attack more aggressively and bring about an end to the war sooner. In addition Mussolini orders that plans be enacted to minimize the effect of the sanctions on the Italian economy.
November 25: Having failed to secure sources of oil outside of the League of Nations, (most notably in the United States which has honoured it’s commitment not to increase oil exports to Italy) Mussolini makes a public speech decrying the sanctions as illegal, criminal, and motivated by greed, in an attempt to drum up support for the war. This speech and others like it would precipitate a war of words between Mussolini and various British and French politicians, resulting in an increased interest in the Abyssinian War.
November 27: As public interest in the Abyssinian war increases around the Western World, a large number of journalists make the journey to the region to take advantage of the public interest.
December 1st: Effects of the League sanctions are beginning to show on the Italian economy due to state interference in the economy in order to minimize the long term effects of the sanctions.
December 4th: Unimpressed with De Bono’s progress in the ongoing Abyssinian War, Mussolini replaces him with Marshal Pietro Badoglio in the hopes of hastening the conduct of the war.
December 15th: An Abyssinian counteroffensive known as “The Christmas Offensive” begins as numerically superior Abyssinian forces surge northward and catch the Italian armies by surprise. Numerous victories are scored by the Abyssinians including the complete defeat of 1000 Eritrean troops under Major Criniti at The Battle of Dembeguina Pass.(A slight change to OTL in which around half of Criniti's force escapes. In TTL they don't giving the Ethiopians a much stronger victory.)
December 18th: Italians across the Empire participate in the “Harvest of Gold” that sees them give up their gold wedding bands and other gold items in exchange for steel wedding bands. This is seen as a necessary measure to assuage the falling gold stocks in Italy. (Happened in OTL)
December 26th: General Badoglio asks for and receives permission from Mussolini to use mustard gas on the advancing Ethiopian troops. (Again OTL)
December 27th: Italian use of mustard gas is recorded by Western journalists who promptly reveal it to the publics of Britain and France.
December 30th: Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie formally files a complaint with the League of Nations including significant evidence of the use of Mustard Gas along with other Italian atrocities (documented by Western journalists). Though Italy decries the complaint as lies, increased public interest in the war and public opinion forces the League to take the Abyssinian complaint more seriously.
January 3rd 1936: A fierce political debate is waged over the continued use of mustard gas by the Italians in the Abyssinian War, though some point to the failure of the League’s economic sanctions to halt the war, proponents of the sanctions point to the necessary time for Italy to feel the effects of said sanctions. Many including Winston Churchill and an increasing number of both French and British politicians begin advocating for a harsher treatment of Italy.
January 5th: League officials begin to consider closing the Suez Canal as a possible non-violent solution to the Abyssinian conflict.
January 7th: Mussolini reacts to rumours of League threats to close the Suez Canal to Italian Shipping by publicly declaring that any such action would be considered an act of War by Italy. Said threats seriously concern many Italian generals who see the nation as woefully unprepared for any conflict. In addition to these threats Mussolini begins expediting Italian shipments of reinforcements and supplies through the canal in the case of any potential closure.
Meanwhile said threats resonate in Britain and France both of which are unprepared for a war with Italy. However along with their apprehensions, both British and French publics don’t wish to back down from Italian threats. Winston Churchill among others is particularly vocal in his support for closing the Suez Canal.
January 16th: News reaches Europe of continued Italian use of mustard gas against Ethiopian targets along with other atrocities such as bombing Red Cross camps. Public outcry over the Italian prosecution of the war is correspondingly increased as is pressure on the League to do something.
January 18th: After almost 2 weeks of intense debate, Baldwin becomes convinced that the only way to bring about an end to the conflict is to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping. That way the Italians are dissuaded from their imperialist ambitions in East Africa and the integrity of the League is upheld. A decision to close the canal would also go a long way in showing his government’s resistance to aggression and reduce public outcry over Britain’s continued inaction. Furthermore Mussolini’s threats of war are perceived to be empty given the poor state of the Italian economy.
January 20th: The British Parliament votes on whether or not to close the Suez Canal to Italian shipping headed for East Africa. The vote is a narrow yes with many members still fearing war on the horizon. However the bill passes leading British Authorities in the Suez to close the canal to Italian vessels. On the same day George V dies resulting in the ascension of Edward VIII.
January 21st: News of the British Parliament’s vote is met with approval from other countries in the League. Mussolini however decries the decision and warns Britain of “Awakening a Sleeping Dragon” using aggressive language. He concludes by demanding that the canal be reopened lest Britain risk further conflict. Baldwin however refuses and once again offers the League of Nations to intervene in the Abyssinian War and bring about an end to the conflict.
January 22nd: Mussolini refuses any mediation in the conflict claiming that the League is interfering in matters that it has no interest in.
January 23rd 1936: In one of the last and least successful examples of gunboat diplomacy units of the Italian navy attempt to force their way through the Suez Canal, precipitating the “Suez Incident of 1936”. An Italian taskforce led by the battleship ANDREA DORIA and consisting of cruisers, destroyers and several transports is confronted by elements of the British Mediterranean fleet outside of Port Said. Ordered to use whatever means necessary to get through the canal, the Italian commander does not stop and continues to sail towards the canal. Repeated warning shots across the bows of the Italian vessels are ignored until an errant shot strikes the ANDREA DORIA. This precipitates a brief engagement in which shots are fired by both sides inflicting damage and casualties. Though the Italian fleet is forced to retreat, many fear the damage has already been done.
Immediately both sides claim innocence in starting the conflict and demand reparations. Intransigence on both sides (despite the attempted mediation of France) leads to Italy making good on its promise to declare war.
January 24th 1936: Italy’s declaration of war against Great Britain is met with declarations of war from Britain as well as France. Furthermore the League moves to condemn the Italians. Mussolini orders Italian troops in North Africa to launch an offensive into Egypt with the intention of seizing the Suez Canal. Further offensives in Abyssinia are put on hold to move against British and French Somalilands.
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So, what are your thoughts? Plausible? Insane?
Any thoughts on the conduct of the war itself? (assuming the above scenario is plausible)
Anyone know where I could get fairly detailed orders of battle for the various nations around this time?
Thanks