Italian campaigns more successful in WWII

[Lysander]

What if the italians were a lot more successfull in their campaings during the early part of WWII, that is they had managed to kick the british out of africa, or contained them in Egypt. As for the balkan campaigns they are either successfull with the quick capture of Greece or they are never initiated and the Balkan countries remain neutral for the rest of the war.

How would this effect the Germany´s war against the USSR. I read an article yesterday that said that the Balkan campain delayed Barbarossa by about six weeks.

 

[Redbeard]

What if the italians were a lot more successfull in their campaings during the early part of WWII, that is they had managed to kick the british out of africa, or contained them in Egypt. As for the balkan campaigns they are either successfull with the quick capture of Greece or they are never initiated and the Balkan countries remain neutral for the rest of the war.

How would this effect the Germany´s war against the USSR. I read an article yesterday that said that the Balkan campain delayed Barbarossa by about six weeks.

The claim about the Balkan campaign delaying Barbarrossa is disputed. The claim stems from Churchill, but there are those saying that the daly came from very rainy weather in May 41. I haven't dived enough into the matter to make up my own opinion, but I guess that both factors weighed in but had the Germans had 20/20 hindsight I guess they would have started Barbarossa ASAP to get as many miles ahead before the winter for serious sets in.

Concerning the Italians more succesful we would need a few PoD's to make it possible, but I dont take it as inplausible. First a little more preparation would be handy. Had the Italians known/expected the situation as it was after June 40 I'm sure they would have been able to immediately go on the offensive in North Africa and not leaving the British any chance to effectively respond. A slightly more spirited top-level operational leadership would also have been handy, but the better preparation could perhaps have provided the PoD with the same persons.

I'm not talking about very different Italian armed forces, I doubt the industrial potential was present to significantly change that, but more of the necessary supplies being present and units being up to their expected strength etc.

The British being thrown out of North Africa and the Med. would certainly be a huge moral blow, perhaps enough to have the Americans give up investing more in the British cause and the British sueing for peace during BoB.

Direct militarily I doubt the consequences will be that big. The British supplied the Middle and Far East around the cape anyway, and If they stay in the war I guess the front will be in Palestine and East Africa, where the British actually will have a superior supply situation. The logistic challenge in keeping armies in North Africa supplied should not be underestimated. Keeping one Division supplied hundreds of miles from a main port or railway line was roughly eqivalent to keeping an entire army supplied in more normal (European) conditions.

If they quit, I guess it could be on conditions letting them keep most of the Empire (outside NA and the Med.) and this would really make the situation more difficult for Japan - as the British now can focus on defending Singapore and India.

The big trouble is however that with a free back the Germans have afair chance of defeating the Russians, and then the world is in for really big problems...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Karlos]

I always wondered what the italians could have done with a better air-naval coordination. After all, they had superb land bases in the Mediterranean, their country is like a big carrier. Their navy was also potentially very powerfull. If they gained control of the Med. between 1940 and 1941, it might have caused the british to give up. After Dec. 1941, of course, there was no way.

 

[hans]

Italian campaigns more successfull

... with more german materials ( airplanes, tanks ) I am sure!

 

[Mr.Bluenote]

Good points (as usual, I might add), Steffen and Karlos!

One thing, though. The Italian industry as such was weak compared to the other great powers, but that will only count in a prolonged conflict. Had the Italians been, shall we say, more thoughtfull and realistic in regards to the way one wages a modern war, instead of drawing all the wrong conclusions from the SCW and the Abyssinian campaign, they might actually have a chance of claiming a true Mare Nostrum.

So, let's see, the divisions remain triangular, I think the term is, instead of reducing their strength to two regiments. Lesser, but stronger divisions and the logistics is simpler too.
The Regia Aeronautica (Royal Airforce) had planes like Giuseppe Gabrilli’s G.50 Freccia (Arrow), Longhis's Reggiane Re.2000 Falco (Falcon) and Mario Gastoldi’s Macchi series, (The MC.200 Saetta - Lightning -, MC.202 Folgore - Thunderbolt - and MC.205 Veltro - Greyhound), but didn't focus on them untill too late. Let's have the pilots and brass in the RA recognize that all-metal mono-planes with enclosed cockpits is the way of the future, as well as onboard radios, 20-30mm cannons and liquid cooled inline engines. Again, we haver fewer, but way more powerfull units. A few doctrines are learned as well, so the RA will use the finger-four and wingman-formations.
The Regia Marina (Royal Navy) take a closer look at what the French and British are putting to sea and realises that they need a force multiplier. Hmm, what to do?! Well, the Savoia-Marchetti S-79 Spareviro (the Sparrowhawk aka the Damned Hunchback) was an incredible tough and reliant plane AND was actually tested as a torpedo bomber in 1937. The RM now orders a Gruppi or two of the S-79's and some reconnaissance planes as well (Re.2000's?!).

A very important last issue; the Italian Merchant Marine. As war approcahes Mussolini and his Fascisti in Rome make sure that the ships are at home or at least in friendly waters.

When Mussolini finally decides to throw in his lot with Hitler the Regias and the Regio Esercito (Royal Army) is ready. In North Africa the British fall back as they get hammered by the more powerfull Italian divisions as the Regias put to both sea and air to help their comrades on the ground.
In France the offense stalls and soon bogs down. There is no way short of not attacking France or ASB's that will allow the Italians to break the French linies in Southern France.
In the Med the RN and RAF is being fought to bloody standstill and is actually defeated in some battles as modern Italian fighters and their deathdefying pilots blast the older British designs out of the sky and Hunchbacks and RM surface units sinks everything that moves (as the Italians recon ability is now present in form of long range Re.2000's and onboard radios).

Having the British actually fighting for their life in Egypt and the Med more or less a Mare Nostrum in the autumn of 1940, the war will take a very different turn than in OTL, I'll say. Politically speaking Churchill will be weakened and his government might fall after a very short time in office. Heavy loses in the Med and retreat on all fronts will be hard for even Churchill to handle. The fact that the Brits are unable even to beat the Italians will hurt their morale a lot, I think. So, an early peace between Britain and the Axis? The Balkans will be rearranged, so to say, and the invasion of the USSR will kick off in early sommer 1941 with a large contingent of seasoned and confident Italians troops. The Italian Armed Forces will have access to more German help in form of technology (motors, cannons etc etc) and resources as the Italians are seen more as true partners than incompetent infantiles...

Best reagds!

- B.

 

[Paul MacQ]

The Above Details are all good replies I have been working on and Idea of the Italian Holding Tobruk and it not falling in British/Commonwealth Hands. It was an OK Harbour for Smaller Ships.

When the British Hit Tobruk a problem with there Supply, or Italians giving AP Ammo to there 75mm AA guns (90mm Was much better by a 75mm 46 Cal long gun was much more Common at this stage Like little 88s) And using them Well forward. The Brits had only 12 Matildas at Tobruk and these smashed everything in front of them.

A submarine in place to sink one of the Battleships sent to Bombard Tobruk.

This would have given them a Harbour closer to the Action less Trucks needed for Supply. It would have been a Much closer Spring board if Rommel Turns up in Time before next British Offensive.

 

[Lysander]

The claim about the Balkan campaign delaying Barbarrossa is disputed. The claim stems from Churchill, but there are those saying that the daly came from very rainy weather in May 41. I haven't dived enough into the matter to make up my own opinion, but I guess that both factors weighed in but had the Germans had 20/20 hindsight I guess they would have started Barbarossa ASAP to get as many miles ahead before the winter for serious sets in.

Steffen Redbeard

Actually i was reading an article on this issue (which is was prompted the thread) and it would seem that anumber of german genarals held the view that the balkan campaign delayed Barbarossa. The article queted from the memoirs and the neuremburg trials.

With the Italians having a firm hold on the Med one would expect that there would be no need for the germans to divert assets to NA. Rommel in the Caucasus?

 

[Mr.Bluenote]

(...) I have been working on and Idea of the Italian Holding Tobruk and it not falling in British/Commonwealth Hands. It was an OK Harbour for Smaller Ships.

Hmm, to have any real effect, I suppose Tobruk is to late as a POD. A different battle of Tobruk might not have any effect beyond NA and the Med. Besides, I would suspect that the amount of supplies brought in would be minimal, as the harbour would be subjected to attack by the British - the RN, as we know, did dominate the Med somewhat at the time - and as Steffen Redbeard always points out; the capacity of the NA harbours were rather deminutive.

When the British Hit Tobruk a problem with there Supply, or Italians giving AP Ammo to there 75mm AA guns (...).

Just out of curiosity, did the Italians actually have AP rounds for their AA guns? I seem to remember reading something about the Italians lacking AP rounds in general.

A submarine in place to sink one of the Battleships sent to Bombard Tobruk.

It might work, but generally subs did badly in the Med. Far to easy to detect, and the Brits were quite good at ASW. Again bombers of some sort are the best choice, I think.

(...) that anumber of german genarals held the view that the balkan campaign delayed Barbarossa. The article queted from the memoirs and the neuremburg trials.

I'm pretty certain that the little detour down south did delay Barbarossa, but seen in retrospect that's problably a good thing as the weather apparently (as Steffen states) was rather bad and ground not yet dry.

With the Italians having a firm hold on the Med one would expect that there would be no need for the germans to divert assets to NA. Rommel in the Caucasus?

If we somehow can make the Italians more successfull in NA, and the Brtish thus less so, then we might see the Yugoslavs staying somewhat firmly in the Axis camp and Mussolini not feeling a need for an invasion of Greece. Under such circumstances the Germans will have more troops to commit out east, but most likely only for a while. The British need to give in for this to really work otherwise they will overwhelm the Italians sooner or later, and then the Germans are back, more or less, where they started; with a bleeding wound in their southern flank.

Hmm, Rommel in the Caucasus? Well, he was by then a panzer-general, but his past on the Austro-Italian front in WW1 might just ensure him a command on the southern tip of the German thrust into Ukraine and beyond. Eventhough I actually think very highly of Rommel, I suppose that he would just be one among many other capable generals had he not gone to NA. But then again, we might see the Rommel-von Kleist team really kick some behind, so to say, on the Eastern Front.

Best regards!

- B.

 

[Adamanteus]

As I understand it, Italy's entry into the war was not planned. Mussolini got jealous of Hitler's successes against Poland and France, and wanted a piece of the pie. Up until then, Italy was successful in wars against push-overs like Ethiopia, so one could imagine that, with good planning, wars against bigger opponents would have at least a decent chance of success. It could also work well if it was coordinated with Germans. Hitler had to come to Mussolini's rescue, rather than plan a coordinated assault.

One might imagine a two-pronged push into the Balkans in 1941, with the capture of Greece. This would satisfy Mussolini's desire for a renewed Roman Empire. Thereafter, Italian troops could support Germans on Barbarossa, in 1942.

Not sure how things may go after that. Perhaps the Soviet campaign might go better, without the North African campaign in the way.

 

[Paul MacQ]

[

Hmm, to have any real effect, I suppose Tobruk is to late as a POD. A different battle of Tobruk might not have any effect beyond NA and the Med. Besides, I would suspect that the amount of supplies brought in would be minimal, as the harbour would be subjected to attack by the British - the RN, as we know, did dominate the Med somewhat at the time - and as Steffen Redbeard always points out; the capacity of the NA harbors were rather diminutive.
Ok Jan 21-22 on 41 Late

I Have seen 2 Tonnage Limits for Tobruk in the Past both Different
600 Tons and 2000 Tons Still enough for Small Ships to make big Diference

Just out of curiosity, did the Italians actually have AP rounds for their AA guns? I seem to remember reading something about the Italians lacking AP rounds in general.

The Italian did produce a AP round for there 75mm Field guns that showed up in Late 1941 this was Reasonable The Idea for the AP Round in AA guns was the Germans used there 88s in Spain in 1938 my thought was an Italian bserver taking Notes

It might work, but generally subs did badly in the Med. Far to easy to detect, and the Brits were quite good at ASW. Again bombers of some sort are the best choice, I think.

The British Battleships 1 of which I believe was Queen Elizabeth turned up at night so as not to risk Air Attack. A quick Bombardment then Ran. So a Lucky Sub was my first thought. The British Anti Sub Forces where not that Great this early on.

 

[Paul MacQ]

[

As I understand it, Italy's entry into the war was not planned. Mussolini got jealous of Hitler's successes against Poland and France, and wanted a piece of the pie. Up until then, Italy was successful in wars against push-overs like Ethiopia, so one could imagine that, with good planning, wars against bigger opponents would have at least a decent chance of success. It could also work well if it was coordinated with Germans. Hitler had to come to Mussolini's rescue, rather than plan a coordinated assault.

Good Point Supply again Italian Merchant Marine was given no Time to Recall ships Mussolini caused Italy too Lose 2/3s of her Merchant Ships where lost because they in Foreign Ports or Running for home.

POD get rid of Mussolini earlier