Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
WI Hitler had invaded France and the Low Countries in the autumn of 1939 as he initially wanted to (and the coup planned against him is cancelled as in OTL)? This would be after the fall of Poland, obviously.
WI Hitler had invaded France and the Low Countries in the autumn of 1939 as he initially wanted to (and the coup planned against him is cancelled as in OTL)? This would be after the fall of Poland, obviously.
Much also depends on which plan they go with. Ardennes or Low Countries?
The Ardennes plan wouldn't have been adopted yet.
True, though Hitler wasn't happy with the Low Countries plan; if he's overruling his generals on one thing (going on 1939 instead of 1940 despite their insistence that it would fail), why not two?
Well the Ardennes plan hadn't been brought to his attention yet, according to Wikipedia, so Hitler wouldn't know exactly what to overrule them with.
Except that a much earlier attack on France WAS the plan. Delayed primarily because of weather. Handwave better weather, and Hitler might be just stupid enough to give the go ahead.it was really impossible for hitler to attack the west following case white
limiting factors
the regular field divisions are not freed from all garisson duty in Poland till the end of October
the regular field divisions can not be stationed in proper assembly areas for an assault to the west till mid november
there was not enough winter clothing available for the regular field divisions let alone new forming and reserve divisions (remember Barbarossa assumed there would be no winter fighting and the German army wasn't prepared for it; launching and attack in may or june is different than november in regards to expectations
lots of tanks and aircraft required critical maintainece following the high tempo of operations in poland whcih would leave the LW and armored divisions understrength
the germans had a lot of wounded guys from case white they wanted to fully recover and bring back to their units
winter came early and stayed late 39-40 was one of the worst winters on record; there just wasn't a good window to launch the attack
ammo stocks and other critical supplies had been drained hard in case white and the army required several months to build up adequet reserves for a new offensive
the general staff was completely and utterly opposed to a winter offensive (and hitler didn't totally own the army the way he did 2 years later); on top of their recognition of the above, they also desperately wanted to reorganize the army and its tactical doctrines following case white as a lot of flaws had come to the surface
theres more reasons as well; but those should suffice to prove the idea couldn't happen within the framework of post case white germany
Ironically a less successful offensive in the West might actually save the Third Reich.
Let's just say the Germans launch a modified Schieflin plain in late October or early November 1939. Let's also say given more limited original goals they decide to only attack through Belgium and Luxemburg, leaving the Netherlands neutral. Also at this point there has obviously been no attack on Denmark or Norway.
As happened in OTL the bulk of the French Army along with a much smaller BEF rush north to support the Belgians. Unlike our history this is actually the correct decision. The Germans have the advantage of overall numbers, combat experience in Poland, high morale, superior tactics and better overall leadership.
The allies have better some better equipment including tanks and fighter aircraft; they have the advantage of fighting on the defensive and have fortifications, as well as having better logistics and supplies. Let's say the Germans are able to capture all of Luxemburg, Flanders, Brussels, Antwerp and the Channel coast up to Calais before the Allies are able to halt them.
With the onset of winter and with both armies exhausted the lines settle and there is a stalemate until the coming spring. The Germans have captured most of Belgium but have not made it into northern France. They are nowhere near Paris and thus are not close to victory. It looks like a much worse replay of 1914. HOWEVER, this Germany does not have an Eastern Front. Stalin is more than happy to watch the fascists and capitalists wear each other down while he grabs everything he can in the Baltic. He will also be happy to supply the blockaded Reich with foodstuffs and oil so long as the Germans pay well.
Now from the Allied point of view.
They have succeeded in stopping the German advance on Paris. Now what? Supreme commander Gamelin has made it clear that the Allies will not be ready to mount an offensive until 1941. Italy looks to remain neutral. The war essentially is limited to Belgium and the Maginot Line. Short of a political revolt or coup in Berlin there is no obvious path to quick victory. As in the previous war the best the Allies seem to be able to hope for is a victory after a long, bloody, expensive war. The British can blockade Germany, but so long as the USSR is a willing trading partner they will not, unlike the last war, be able to starve the Germans out. Perhaps just as important the United States cannot be expected to intervene this time. The US is unwilling even to provide loans and will only supply the goods the Allies are able to pay for and deliver themselves.
Faced with stalemate and a long drawn out war the British would follow their historic policy of seeking out secondary theaters to press their war. Would the government be more willing to follow Churchill's scheme for mining Norwegian waters? Would the English and French bomb the Soviet oil fields? Thus drawing them into the war? Would they try to open a new front in the Balkans?
If the war dragged out for three or four years would Hitler and the Allies eventually reach a compromise peace? Unlike with his enemies in the east Hitler was always eager for an understanding with the British Empire. He considered the French the historic enemy of the Germans; but might be willing to make a deal with them if it meant peace with the British.
I don't know, if Hitler's Generals were ready to turn on him with merely the possibility of a WWI-style stalemate, they're going to be really unhappy when it actually happens. If the Germans bog down into trenches on the French border, the government is coming down.
Except that a much earlier attack on France WAS the plan. Delayed primarily because of weather. Handwave better weather, and Hitler might be just stupid enough to give the go ahead.