"It is the old USSR in name only."

The POD here is that Gorbachev somehow prevents the 1991 coup, or that that coup otherwise does not happen. From what I've read the new Union treaty such as it was, was quite close to being signed when the coup occurred. Indeed, according to David Remnick, the treaty was going to be signed on the twentieth of August 1991. After that coup, any chance of that treaty being signed at all was completely gone. So, the coup does not happen, the new union treaty is signed by the various parties present during the Novo-Ogarevo process.

How long does the reformed Soviet Union last? I think there's a good chance it survives the year, but I'm not sure it'd would last the decade.

How do these turn of events effect the situation in Russia and the other member states?

How is American foreign policy affected. Could the survival of the Soviet Union somehow save Bush's Presidency?
 
USSR was going to fall anyway

If you consider that Gorbachev was already in talks with the US to decrease their nuclear arms and the DDR of East Germany was already collapsing which was creating a domino affect among the former Warsaw Pact members I see the Soviet Union still withdrawing from competing to be the supreme superpower. Boris Yelstin was still looking for giving Russia more autonomy even though I admit the attempted coup d'etat was what gave him the wind beneath his wings to really push it through.

All in all I would say it wouldn't change US foreign policy much as pundits were already proclaiming the US of being the victor of the Cold War even before its collapse. I would even wager that without the collapse of the Soviet Union the US wouldn't have fallen asleep so easily concerning a potentially resurgent Russia and I think that Russia today is even stronger in military and foreign policy then any post-Perestroika Soviet Union staying afloat just because of that perceived sleeper factor. I would wager Russia came out even stronger through breaking off poor and potentially rebellious former Soviet states while still retaining relations through trade agreements.
 
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The USSR might be able too retain some of the Central Asian states it lost OTL as the independence movements were small compared too Eastern Europe. They might also manage to retain Belarus, although that would look really ugly on the map. :p

Everybody else definitely wanted out and you are most certainly going too lose the Warsaw Pact countries and the Baltic Republics. Retaining Ukraine and the Caucuses states will only work with severe crackdowns. It is possible for Russia too come out stronger than OTL in virtually every way post-USSR, but that does not necessarily involve holding on to its territory.
 
Actually, an Ukranian poll taken shortly before the coup indicated a majority in favor of staying with the USSR under the new Union treaty : as long as it looked like the USSR wasn't about to collapse or return to dictatorial ways, most people were unwilling to rock the boat. The Baltic states and the Caucuses are definitely gone, though, and a "reformed" USSR sans those states probably would be shaky enough that it would only hold together for a few more years anyway.

Bruce
 
I foresee some sort of showdown between Gorbachev and Yeltsin at some point. Even with the treaty, Yeltsin's inclination will be to challenge the authority of the central government in Moscow. And Gorbachev's inclination will be to resist Yeltsin. The two men hated each other. Because the Union treaty AFAIK allowed member states to control their own economies, I think that there's a good possibility that the economic liberalization which occurred under Yeltsin will occur here. I'm not entirely sure how the conflict between the two men will resolve itself here, or who will emerge triumphant.
 
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