Israel versus Pakistan

Proctol

Banned
India & Pakistan almost went to war a couple of years ago. The Israelis quietly rushed some of their Arrow anti-missile batteries and Green Pine radar to the Indians (although the Israelis & Indians haven't in the past been particularly amicable, "my enemy's enemy is my friend!") in Kashmir, so that they could detect deep inside Pakistan any missile launches.

WI instead of launching on the Indians, Musharaf in an uncharacteristic fundamentalist rage launches his long range Gauri III and Tipu missiles at Israel. Not having their new F16I ultra long range fighter bombers at that time, the Israelis can only respond with their own long range Shabit missiles. Does it remain with conventional warheads, or does it rapidly escalate to nuclear warheads & Armageddon in the Middle East and Sub-Continent?

Musharaff has survived many assassination attempts. If he was killed or deposed, & Al Qaida types were perceived to be suddenly getting hold of the keys to Pakistan's 50 A bomb missiles, would the Indians, Israelis and even the US have no choice but to immediately take out Pakistan, or else lose everything? Or would the more-reasonable Al Qaida-besieged Pakistani military themselves perceive that since India and Israel are about to preempt, they had better preempt, albeit unwillingly and launch?!
 
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In terms of political suicide, trying to shoot ballistic missiles at an American key ally straight across the Middle East looks high on the list of good approaches. I mean, how does Tel Aviv know the first one isn't a nuke? How do Delhi or WAshington? I doubt they'd be willing to wait and see.

That said, aren't the Pakistani missiles largely North Korean technology? How do we know they won't hit Jordan or Syria :eek: ? Of course, if you're going to start nuclear holocaust anyway, why would you care...

imagine the headlines tho: "Musharraf Nukes Damascus. Security Council Puzzled."

I'd not expect the Pakistani military to go along with any such action. I can see - putting myself in their shoes - why they want missiles pointing Indiaways, but throwing them around for no reason at all - why?

Of course, idf some ultrafundamentalist terror organisation tries to get their hands on them I'd try put them into safe hands if I were the Pakistani military. Which, by their definition, would probably be Iran (it would hardly be India, and they *are* supposed to be Islamic bombs. Anyway, Syria allegedly has all those WMDs they haven't found in Iraq yet, so they don't need any more.)
 

Proctol

Banned
After today's test I ultimately believe that Musharraf will be overthrown & his missiles, with their ever increasing range & payload, will be used by his fundamentalist successors against Israel even more than India. A full exchange would render large parts of the Middle East & the Sub-Continent out of human bounds for 100 years. As Sir James Jeans said:"The Jew is the Golden Thread that runs through history", and when it comes to Jewish history and the Land of Israel, things usually do degenerate into worst-case scenarios, as history has shown again and again.http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13109866,00.html
 
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Protocol, if you are going to look at the fundamentalists as doing it for religiously motivated reasons, then they would be more likely to attack the "pagan Hindus" (I'm one myself :) ) than the "monotheistic but land grabbing Jews". Furthermore, the Pakistanis have far more grievances with India than they could ever have with Israel. I'll bet half of all families in Pakistan had some "wonderful" experiences during partition (in 1947). I know that about the same is true in northern and other parts of India. Antagonism runs deep on both sides. For Pakistan, despite all the fan fare about it being an "Islamic bomb", it is more or less the "kill India if she tries to kill us bomb". Also, this missile test doesn't disturb me one bit. It is nothing amazing and the Indians can match it easily while Israel has better stuff than both of the two.
 
I would feel much safer if Pakistan's nukes are taken out, preferably by a sudden surgical strike giving Pakistan no chance to use the rest of them. When that is done, the Islamic world would complain, but "the monkeys may as well be left to jump about and chatter" if they can no longer play power politics.
 
Anthony Appleyard said:
I would feel much safer if Pakistan's nukes are taken out, preferably by a sudden surgical strike giving Pakistan no chance to use the rest of them. When that is done, the Islamic world would complain, but "the monkeys may as well be left to jump about and chatter" if they can no longer play power politics.
I dunno. It's hardly ever a goods idea to use nations as footmats because they can't do anything about it - yet. And however much we wish they didn't, Pakistan has at least as good a reason for wanting nukes as Britain or Israel. I don't buy Musharraf's 'Islamic Bomb' posturing, either, but if the US do that will make it credible. Right now, the 'Islamic bomb' is in the hands of a government that sees its best political future in opposing India and supporting US operations in the region while placating Islamic fundamentalists and running its own 'backyard' imperialism in Afghanistan. If the US decides to take out that group, I think three things will happen:

- Pakistan will turn against the US. Either Musharraf falls or he is so angry at the betrayal and humiliation that he turns against Washington himself. Either way, that's not good nwes (except, maybe, for India, who have been shamefully treated by the west in the past and may now be recognised for the valuable ally they are)

- Everybody in the Islamic world will be right ROYALLY pissed off once again (not like that hasn't been managed in the past...)

- Someone in the Islamic world will soon unveil the next 'Islamic Bomb' to general acclaim rather than the quiet sinking feeling that would follow today. Iran might be a good candidate. At any rate the chances are good that they are more serious about the 'Islamic' bit.

Anyhow, Islamabad seems to be keen on selling the stuff; might it not be possible to buy them all?
 
the samson option

if Pakistan goes bad and launches nukes at isreal, every islamic capital and shrine hosting city will be glass.

its like saying "u cazy, am crazy"

a deterrent that works
 
How accurate are Pakistan's rockets at that distance? Or will they only manage to slag Amman or Al Mudawwara or a patch of Saudi camel pasture?
 
Rahul said:
Protocol, if you are going to look at the fundamentalists as doing it for religiously motivated reasons, then they would be more likely to attack the "pagan Hindus" (I'm one myself :) ) than the "monotheistic but land grabbing Jews". Furthermore, the Pakistanis have far more grievances with India than they could ever have with Israel. I'll bet half of all families in Pakistan had some "wonderful" experiences during partition (in 1947). I know that about the same is true in northern and other parts of India. Antagonism runs deep on both sides. For Pakistan, despite all the fan fare about it being an "Islamic bomb", it is more or less the "kill India if she tries to kill us bomb". Also, this missile test doesn't disturb me one bit. It is nothing amazing and the Indians can match it easily while Israel has better stuff than both of the two.
I would entirely endorse this post, but who am I to know :)

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf, I was just commenting on that for no reason at all. I wasn't using as justification for my opinion that they would be more likely to attack India if that's what you thought I was doing. Sorry if I gave that impression.

Anthony Appleyard, a surgical strike would be nice but do we even know where those nukes are located? If the strike fails, there are over a billion people on the subcontinent who will die or be affected in some way or another simply because of a failed attempt to disarm Pakistan. Furthermore, the US would never do that and if it tried, China would probably just rearm Pakistan. Pakistan with nukes keeps India and any of India's military ambitions stuck in a regional mold. That is good for China. For the US, pakistan is vital in keeping Afghanistan pacified. What would happen were this to fail makes it in my opinion too rash of a thing to be done. Furthermore, that would be pandering to India, which would enrage people all over the Islamic world. Also, the Hindu nationalists in India might take advantage of Pakistan's weakened situation to call for war now that Pakistan doesn't have nukes. It opens a whole new can of worms, whether the operation fails or succeeds, making it, in my opinion, destabilizing and unnecessary either way.
 
Rahul said:
Grey Wolf, I was just commenting on that for no reason at all. I wasn't using as justification for my opinion that they would be more likely to attack India if that's what you thought I was doing. Sorry if I gave that impression.

.
Er, I was just agreeing with you

As Scott pointed out in a previous post I haven't been able to make myself clear for some while now...

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf, sorry, I was a bit paranoid. I thought that from the part where I said "(I'm one myself :) ) ", you were mocking that by saying "but who am I to know". I'm very sorry there, that was a big misunderstanding.

Anyhow, I don't think (at least in this instance) you weren't making yourself clear. Rather, I was assuming something.
 
Rahul, that scenario does the following:

1) Pakistan is effectively neutered by the US, India happy.

2) Relations between Islamic world and US deteriorate, US to seek new allies, India EXTREMELY happy.

3) US now formally opposed to Islamic bomb, see above plus add Israel to happiness list.

4) China now losing key ally, seeing India dramatically strengthened, both by the Pakistani reduction AND by US alliance, and can either be humiliated publicly by abandoning Pakistan OR enhance the new DC-Delhi pact well possibly forfeiting enormous amounts of trade with the US.

5) Israel now free to sell anything India wants, unless the US military beats them to it.

Unable to see how China is doing well out of this. And if we just gave Israel a new and extremely large ally, I don't see the Islamic world being very happy either.

HISTORICAL NOTE: The current regime in Pakistan exists because the last elected government in Pakistan was moving towards war with India, even after being informed that there was no possibility of success or even holding off the Indian Army. In other words, Musharrif was installed by coup when the elected leaders were giving Pakistan the choice of shattering defeat or nuclear war.
 
I was saying that if the strike fails, and Pakistan launches off some nukes, they will hit Hyderbad, Bangalore, and Delhi, screwing India over badly and setting it back very much economically. China in that case has lost a major rival. Also, I meant that Pakistan's having nukes allows China to keep India bottled up on subcontinental issues and not focused on things like Tibet or Burma or the indo-chinese border areas. Also, India and Israel already do have a good amount of ties through the Arrow, phalcon, and other deals. However, were the strike to succeed (and Pakistan is deprived of its nukes), then I agree entirely with the points you set forth. I just see the implications of a failed strike so bad that the strike would have little chance of taking place.
 
That's what I'm worried about

panzerjay said:
the samson option

if Pakistan goes bad and launches nukes at isreal, every islamic capital and shrine hosting city will be glass.

its like saying "u cazy, am crazy"

a deterrent that works
I figure that the Pakistanis are waiting till they can set up a meteor bounce communications computer controlled failsafe to automatically subtract a Jewish (New York) or JudeoChristian (Dallas) city for every Islamic city. Say, 1000 100 megaton bombs basement bombs. That way when they wind up at the pearly gates they can truthfully say that they didn't kill the northern hemisphere, it was the Israelis.
JudeoChristian is the southern church in America. We really have a northern Christian, New Testament church and a southern, JudeoChristian, Old Testament church. It's weird, but very American. Baptist, Methodist, Lutheran, Catholic, Presbyterian, etc, doesn't much matter. Just Old Testament Christians and New Testament Christians.
 
wkwillis said:
I figure that the Pakistanis are waiting till they can set up a meteor bounce communications computer controlled failsafe to automatically subtract a Jewish (New York) or JudeoChristian (Dallas) city for every Islamic city. Say, 1000 100 megaton bombs basement bombs. That way when they wind up at the pearly gates they can truthfully say that they didn't kill the northern hemisphere, it was the Israelis.
That would be an extremely stupid idea. We all have learned that there are few limits to the stupidity of government policies, but even the USA and USSR during the cold war decided that anything like that was a no-no. Musharraf does not strike me as suicidal.
 
Never underestimate human stupidity

carlton_bach said:
That would be an extremely stupid idea. We all have learned that there are few limits to the stupidity of government policies, but even the USA and USSR during the cold war decided that anything like that was a no-no. Musharraf does not strike me as suicidal.
Look, you may think that Musharraf is not as stupid as Sharon, but I don't! The Pakistanis are MORE likely to go nuclear than the Israelis. You are free to feel differently. You can believe that the Israelis are evil, genocidal, maniacs and that the Pakistanis are gentle, peaceful, secular humanists, but I think that that is a minority opinion on this board.
 
Wkwillis, you can say "the Israelis" because Israelis democratically elected their government. Pakistanis haven't done so in a while so it is really Musharraf upon whom the blame falls. Anyhow, I think both countries would only use their nukes in self-defense. Carlton_Bach never said anything that general about either Israel or Pakistan either. Musharraf isn't suicidal and he's rather good at playing the game he does. He has a population that is rather anti-US and pro-Al Qaeda as well as anti-India and yet he managed to get into our good graces (in case you haven't noticed,just a month ago, Colin Powell named him a "major non-NATO ally" whereas India was just given a nice, brief visit) via his help with Afghanistan. Furthermore, he knows and most sensible folks in the US government know that if he goes, the fundamentalists get control of the bomb and they will probably be suicidal but not towards Israel, towards India. I don't know how to impress upon you but India has remained in the forefront of Paksitan's foreign policy since its inception as a state. It is not a MidEastern nation, it is a South Asian nation. It's culture and language are closer to that of India, Nepal, and Afghanistan than that of Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt. A fundamentalist government might try to throw something at Israel for fun but India would be its prime target. Furthermore, Musharraf is our best bet for Pakistan right now, indeed the world's best bet. If he falls, nuclear war would be a very very real possibilty. Furthermore, Wkwillis, they don't even have the missiles to hit New York City, let alone Tel Aviv.


Musharraf launched his coup to prevent the elected leaders from starting a potentially nuclear conflict with India?
He launched it because former PM Nawaz Sharif had backed down when facing India in the Kargil conflict due to pressure from President Clinton. Musharraf as a general had been in charge of dealings in Afghanistan if I recall.
 
wkwillis said:
Look, you may think that Musharraf is not as stupid as Sharon, but I don't! The Pakistanis are MORE likely to go nuclear than the Israelis. You are free to feel differently. You can believe that the Israelis are evil, genocidal, maniacs and that the Pakistanis are gentle, peaceful, secular humanists, but I think that that is a minority opinion on this board.
:rolleyes:

Now, that's hardly what I said is it? (insert gratuitous comment about conservatives often hearing different things than are actually said here). I am fairly convinced that both Israel and Pakistan have their nuclear arsenal for roughly similar reasons: they feel threatened by powerful, hostile neighbours and want the assurance of a 'doomsday option' to unequivocally say "We go down - you come along". That is a LONG way away from producing 100 citykillers and surreptitiously distributing them in the urban centres of one's allies in order to be undisturbed when launching an unprovoked nuclear attack.

Pakistan play in the cricket world championship (OK, they lost to India - what else is new. They do that.). Musharraf went to Sandhurst. They closely cooperate with the US (well, as un-closely as they can get away with without becoming more trouble than they're worth). They are angling for an increased cotton fabric import quota. Hardly the hallmarks of an insane fundamentalist regime. Not that the usual style of western diplomacy couldn't turn them into one in no time flat...
 
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