Israel Syrian detente in 1975

Khanzeer

Banned
WI Israel and Syria start backing the same factions in the newly erupted Lebanese civil war and come closer to each other.The two states resolve their issues over Golan and form diplomatic relations preempting Saadats famous trip to Israel and camp David peace talks

How will is effect the course of middle east politics?
 
Sunny

Sunny

Some Bloke said:
Question is, what would make them back the same factions in the first place?
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Well initially, Syria did back the Christians when the Civil War started so it's not impossible that Israel and Syria might back the same side.

But beyond that, I can't see much chance for an actual peace agreement. Assad Sr. was no Sadat (or any kind of moderate). You would need the Syrian Baathists to fall (or have a mass personality transplant) in order to get a pragmatist like Sadat. The Alawite dominated Syrian Baathists are far too vulnerable to getting couped and getting accused of being sellouts by the Sunni majority if they go too far with peace overtures to Israel.
 

Ahab

Maybe you have no Iranian revolution, so there is less fear of radical shia factions, and so both Syria and Israel ends up agreeing to a shia minority rule of Lebanon. This regime probably have the support of the Druze and part of the Christian population. Both Israel and Syria have an interest in backing this sort of regime as a way to keep Lebanon away of Sunni led rule.
I think that an Israel-Syria-Lebanon led block has much potential. This scenario might end up with a Palestinian state made out of Jordan, and Israel might keep the sinai.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Sadat was not a moderate just a pragmatist
The TL is before iranian Islamic revolution

Maybe the cooperation is covert while Assad goes after and liquidated Arafat's faction and Abu Nidal, at the same time propping up more " moderate" Palestinian factions.These factions will give the movement some legitimacy.

My guess is Egypt will seek peace regardless of what Syrians do

Syria may get closer to Turkey and west as well in the meantime
 
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