Israel loses the 1973 war

Is there any scenario where the Arab forces led by Syria and Egypt would have been able to bring Israel to terms that could possibly be constituted as a humiliating peace? Both Egypt and Syria came close to a breakthrough at several redoubts only to be driven back by ferocious Jewish resistance. Was there any way the sneak attack on Yom Koppel could have been more devastating? Possibly a replay of 6 days, that knocked out the Egyptian Air Force out of the fight? Or was Israeli military units and training so advanced at this point that they were always destined to win out?
 

Lusitania

Donor
Israel would use it without hesitation if either Egypt or Syria entered Israel proper. It would be a question of survival regardless of repercussions.
 
I think the OP wants to know if the Arab nations might have stopped short of going for a massacre if they had the upper hand. Settling for snipping off chunks of Israel such as Gaza and the West Bank might well change the narrative to this day. I suspect though that the balance of internal forces was such that the Arabs would overreach and that the US to avert the use of the Israeli bomb would intervene.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I think the OP wants to know if the Arab nations might have stopped short of going for a massacre if they had the upper hand. Settling for snipping off chunks of Israel such as Gaza and the West Bank might well change the narrative to this day. I suspect though that the balance of internal forces was such that the Arabs would overreach and that the US to avert the use of the Israeli bomb would intervene.
If Egypt takes Sinai and Syria the golan Heights they ok. Anything more no go
 
If the Syrian army had moved to seize strategic objectives instead of getting bogged down beating up the overstretched joke that was Israel's supposedly awesome military, yeah, the Arabs would have won. Then it all depends on how the US negotiates in the clutch. If the US doesn't say "if you use the nukes you can kiss our support good-bye" then Israel will nuke Cairo and Damascus, the Arab world will never accept any form of peace with Israel for any reason, and the Soviets will get massive amounts of free PR as they spout not-entirely-inaccurate propaganda about the murderous capitalist-imperialists who seek to destroy freedom-loving anti-imperialists at any cost.

About the same amount of casualties overall as from the situation OTL, but much more concentrated in a single incident and resulting in a massive loss of support for Israel from the left in America 40 years early.

Honestly, the best time to stop Israel's abuses from occurring is in '48. Having those scummy little imperialists in Haganah and the Stern gang thrown out on their asses, preferably with US or UN oversight to ensure that there isn't any major ethnic cleansing in the aftermath, would be far better for everybody involved.
 
No way would they use it unless they wanted to be a parish state.

What State?

The goal was the destruction of the State of Israel.

So when that looks plausible, yep, Cairo, Aswan Dam, Damascus, Baghdad, Riyadh, along with Medina and Mecca, with a strong possibility for a few towards the USSR. It's estimated they had between a dozen to 21 bombs at this point

Yes, the Samson Option was ugly
 
What State?

The goal was the destruction of the State of Israel.

So when that looks plausible, yep, Cairo, Aswan Dam, Damascus, Baghdad, Riyadh, along with Medina and Mecca, with a strong possibility for a few towards the USSR. It's estimated they had between a dozen to 21 bombs at this point

Yes, the Samson Option was ugly
And then the entire population of Israel and Palestine dies under a hail of Soviet nuclear hellfire. Congratulations, Israel. Instead of making it out with a South Africa or Zimbabwe solution to your colonialism, you got your entire population killed. What exactly is the point?
 
If the Syrian army had moved to seize strategic objectives instead of getting bogged down beating up the overstretched joke that was Israel's supposedly awesome military, yeah, the Arabs would have won. Then it all depends on how the US negotiates in the clutch. If the US doesn't say "if you use the nukes you can kiss our support good-bye" then Israel will nuke Cairo and Damascus, the Arab world will never accept any form of peace with Israel for any reason, and the Soviets will get massive amounts of free PR as they spout not-entirely-inaccurate propaganda about the murderous capitalist-imperialists who seek to destroy freedom-loving anti-imperialists at any cost.

About the same amount of casualties overall as from the situation OTL, but much more concentrated in a single incident and resulting in a massive loss of support for Israel from the left in America 40 years early.

Honestly, the best time to stop Israel's abuses from occurring is in '48. Having those scummy little imperialists in Haganah and the Stern gang thrown out on their asses, preferably with US or UN oversight to ensure that there isn't any major ethnic cleansing in the aftermath, would be far better for everybody involved.

Ehh without a massive foreign intervention in 48 there's about a 99 percent chance of complete ethnic cleansing at best or Rwandan style rapid brutal genocide at worst if the Arab armies completely win. Without a much earlier POD their really isn't any likely hood that the Jewish population is allowed to remain/allowed to remain alive.

And since nobody was stupid enough to get sucked into the quagmire that Palestine was at the time that means genocide and ethnic cleansing.
 
And then the entire population of Israel and Palestine dies under a hail of Soviet nuclear hellfire. Congratulations, Israel. Instead of making it out with a South Africa or Zimbabwe solution to your colonialism, you got your entire population killed. What exactly is the point?

There wasn't going to be a Zimbabwe much less a South Africa style end to Israel if Syria/Egypt had won in 73. The Israeli's thought that if they were conquered that Holocaust 2.0 was inevitable.
 
Ehh without a massive foreign intervention in 48 there's about a 99 percent chance of complete ethnic cleansing at best or Rwandan style rapid brutal genocide at worst if the Arab armies completely win. Without a much earlier POD their really isn't any likely hood that the Jewish population is allowed to remain/allowed to remain alive.

And since nobody was stupid enough to get sucked into the quagmire that Palestine was at the time that means genocide and ethnic cleansing.
I disagree, especially with the "Rwandan style rapid brutal genocide" thing. Why?

1, Arabs aren't some evil rapist monsters.

2, even if things DID degenerate to such a situation, which I find extremely unlikely, the USA not 3 years ago finished beating the shit out of an evil fascist regime that tried to exterminate Jews. What do you think their response will be to even a hint of someone attempting to exterminate a bunch of Jews?

More likely, one of two things happens: The US steps in and mandates that the Jewish forces sit down, shut the Hell up, and let the Arab majority run the damn useless marshland; or, the Soviets make flexing motions and the US doesn't have enough nukes ready to deploy yet, so the US evacs the Jewish civilian population and says "hey, we're, uh, ending immigration quotas for Jews, come here and you're all cool with us, OK?"
 
There wasn't going to be a Zimbabwe much less a South Africa style end to Israel if Syria/Egypt had won in 73. The Israeli's thought that if they were conquered that Holocaust 2.0 was inevitable.
Which is a flatly bullshit way of thinking, especially considering the massive twitchy superpower with tens of thousands of nuclear weapons whose public considers Jews to be a protected class.
 
Let me be clear what I meant by a humiliating peace. Somewhere along the lines of what Egypt got in Camp David. Israeli withdrawal from the Sinai and restoration of trade. Syria would have their Golan Heights possessions restored. And possibly some sort of autonomy for Palestine or at least a loosening of the Occupation. By no means did I mean that Sadat could roll the tanks right on into Jerusalem.
 
And then the entire population of Israel and Palestine dies under a hail of Soviet nuclear hellfire. Congratulations, Israel. Instead of making it out with a South Africa or Zimbabwe solution to your colonialism, you got your entire population killed. What exactly is the point?

I believe it was mentioned at the time, Soviet retaliation after the Samson Option would be similar to shooting a corpse, they would be nuking what was left of Arab armies.

And in '73 there was no Palestine.
 
I believe it was mentioned at the time, Soviet retaliation after the Samson Option would be similar to shooting a corpse, they would be nuking what was left of Arab armies.

And in '73 there was no Palestine.
The whole former Mandate and anything within the fallout radius is basically dead after the Soviets glass Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa straight down to the ground in retaliation for whatever bomb the Israelis lob at them. Once the nuclear genie is out of the bottle, it never goes back in. Doesn't matter if the territory is de jure Jordanian or egyptian or what, it's all going up in smoke.
 
It's probably worth noting that the Yom Kippur war certainly for Egypt was about re-taking what was lost, not a grand invasion of Israel - even if that was the Government and country's long term desire like all of Israel's neighbours. Syria's contribution to the war and it's rather embarrassing defeat show that it's unlikely to be a real winner in any scenario in the 1973 war, if anything the only way the two powers 'win' is if Egypt just remains under their SAM defence net on the western side of the Sinai and doesn't try the offensive towards Southern Israel as they did in real life that resulted in massive losses. Syria probably always loses, and probably always fails to take and hold the Golan heights if just due to technological inferiority and the assurance of long term support to Israel from the United States. Their best bet really is to take the heights if they somehow break through and then just wait there, any advance into Israel proper would be a disaster for both sides in the war as they demonstrated in OTL when they tried. The idea of some breakthrough that allows Egyptian and Syrian tanks to roll through the streets of Tel Aviv just don't account for Israel's far superior air force, the very unfavourable attacking geography in the Sinai and the fact the US wouldn't allow it, thus a realistic win in 1973 either sees Egypt take back part of or all of the Sinai and Syria either losing alone or taking back the Golan Heights.
 
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