Israel Goes Red

With a PoD sometime after it gains independence in 1948, how can you get Israel to go, if not completely communist, at least socialist and become a Soviet ally? As I understand from reading other (albeit older) threads of this nature, this was by far not a longshot and very easily possible. What I want this thread to become is a discussion on the long-term consequences of that rather than an endless discussion of different PoD's. Primarily, what I want to know would be the likely results concerning world politics, Mid-East politics, changes in Israeli/Arab societies, and the path that the Israeli government takes without the US/French supporting them like they did OTL.

Hopefully this gets more replies and discussion than my other threads. After all, unlike Mayans and Paraguay, people here do seem fond of discussing Israel...
 
With a PoD sometime after it gains independence in 1948, how can you get Israel to go, if not completely communist, at least socialist and become a Soviet ally? As I understand from reading other (albeit older) threads of this nature, this was by far not a longshot and very easily possible. What I want this thread to become is a discussion on the long-term consequences of that rather than an endless discussion of different PoD's. Primarily, what I want to know would be the likely results concerning world politics, Mid-East politics, changes in Israeli/Arab societies, and the path that the Israeli government takes without the US/French supporting them like they did OTL.

Hopefully this gets more replies and discussion than my other threads. After all, unlike Mayans and Paraguay, people here do seem fond of discussing Israel...

Well, given my limited understanding of this area of Cold War politics most of this could sound like total rubbish, just bear with me though.

Firstly, we need to find an early way of dealing with Soviet anti-Semitism. Stalin was pretty damn bigoted to be honest (and Trotsky being Jewish can't have helped matters) and most of the early emigres to the new State of Israel, while secular, brought a firm sense of anti-Communist and anti-Soviet feeling with them (something that still continues to this day). Incapacitating or removing Stalin early on would play a major role in limiting this. Perhaps getting a Jewish leader of the Soviet Union to replace him could help with this.

Secondly, we need an American administration that views an alliance with Israel as being of lesser benefit that closer ties to the Arab nations. I believe that George Marshall was a great supporter of this view, perhaps if the Soviets make clearer ambitions on Iraq rather than Iran (which is possible) then that would be enough to swing US interests towards the Arab League in order to safeguard oil supplies and reduce the risk of Soviet expansion southwards.

Okay. Say that Stalin dies five years earlier (thus butterflying away the Doctors' Plot) and is succeeded by (mainly because I have a personal interest him) Lazar Kaganovich (not massively unlikely, Khrushchev would be too junior at this point, no-one would want Beria, and Molotov was too divisive). "Iron Lazar" atheist or not, will at least stop the anti-sematic propaganda still present in Soviet life. This is greeted positively in Israel, with many of the population quietly pleased to have seen a young cobbler from Kiev succeed in the face of rather hostile conditions for him.

Looking for a means to increase Soviet power, General-Secretary Kaganovich casts his eyes towards that long held dream of Moscow's, a warm water port. With Iraq and Iran still in a state of flux from the war, he chooses to move troops towards the boarder.

At the same time, Secretary of State Marshall signs a major treaty with the fledgling Arab League to provide agricultural equipment in return for increased oil revenues. The secular Pan-Arabism of figures such as Nasser is fairly popular with the US Administration and ties become warmer over the next few years and many within the White House soon begin to view the League as a vital bulwark against the expansionist superpower to the north.

Isreal, meanwhile, starved of support from either Washington (who seem to have abandoned them as soon as they created them) and London (Ernest Bevin being pretty much as anti-Zionist as one can get) begin to look to the other major power block for support.

A very shaky start, but hopefully vaguely plausible?

:eek:
 
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With a PoD sometime after it gains independence in 1948, how can you get Israel to go, if not completely communist, at least socialist and become a Soviet ally? As I understand from reading other (albeit older) threads of this nature, this was by far not a longshot and very easily possible. What I want this thread to become is a discussion on the long-term consequences of that rather than an endless discussion of different PoD's. Primarily, what I want to know would be the likely results concerning world politics, Mid-East politics, changes in Israeli/Arab societies, and the path that the Israeli government takes without the US/French supporting them like they did OTL.

Hopefully this gets more replies and discussion than my other threads. After all, unlike Mayans and Paraguay, people here do seem fond of discussing Israel...
Israel was straight up socialist prior the late 70s.
 
American View

That's what I thought. Which would make it easier for them to end up joining the Soviet camp rather than the American.
Ther were at one time Americans who were concerned about this. David Ben Gorian seemed a little too much to the left for their likeing. Others thought it would be better to be frendley toward Isreal and influence them away from communism.
 
I know that it might not effect early American support for Israel, but the conservative religous movements, especially the televangelists and Pat Robertson wannabes, would have to either be completely butterflied away (which is difficult at best) or have a major shift in ideology. The vast majority of those organizations have been vocal supporters of Israel at least since the 80s and have had SERIOUS lobbying going on. If one could change their basic Israel-related philosophy, which is that Israel's existence is fulfillment of Biblical prophecy. Perhaps an anti-Christian policy by Israel? (sorry if that was horribly written, I haven't slept in 24 hours:D)
 
This is going to sound really crazy, and might be complete BS, but please stay with me for a sec. What if Post-WWI Turkey had a far more agressive, militantly pan-Turkish leader? With Mustafa Kemal out of the picture, America might be less willing to ally themselves with Turkey. With American missile bases and allied forces not on their doorstep, the USSR might not provide funding and support to the Ottoman breakaway states, since it would no longer need that Arab bulwark against American interests/allies. Without visible Soviet support for the nations attacking Israel, Soviet-Israeli relations would be considerably warmer.

Also, it should be noted that one of the many reasons why the USSR did not support Israel was that Stalin tried to create his own Jewish refuge in southern Siberia, The Jewish Autonomous Oblast, an enterprise that failed miserably.
 
Based on admittedly what little I know, initial Israel-USSR relations were rather warm, despite Stalin's personal anti-semitism. After all, they were the second country to recognize Israel's independence, after the USA. They even gave them lots of supplies during their initial wars with the Arabs. Going by what Wikipedia tells me, it seems it was the Suez Crisis where relations between the two started going downhill. If you avoid that, and/or have the USSR adopt a more pro-Zionist stance (OTL they were against it because they perceived it as being too nationalist), then it might be easier for the two to form an alliance, therefore getting this discussion to the long-term effects I said I was hoping we'd be able to think about.
 
Labor Zionist Utopia vs Hard Reality

That's what I thought. Which would make it easier for them to end up joining the Soviet camp rather than the American.

The problem is unless one followed the Soviet way of Socialism or Communism, the way the USSR's key officials tolerated at any given time, you couldn't join the Cominterm club and thus didn't get the best in arms and support the Soviet Union could offer.

I personally would see Israel increase its ties with France who were quite socialist (more so then now) under Charles De Gaul then any nominal at best support from the Soviet Union. Any support the state of Israel had from Czechoslovakia was probably due to easily buying Nazi era surplus and the Soviet satellite status not quite sinking in yet.

Maybe with the Arab League leaning towards Western support Israel would join in Egypt's place Yugoslavia and China in the Non-Aligned movement while still keeping some warm relations with the Soviet Union.

The main problem is however not existential but also internal Israeli politics. As the 1970s approached opposition such as Likud the Democratic Movement for Change political alliance started to eat away at Labor dominance. It culminated in 1977 with the victor for the Premiership of Likud candidate and founder Menachem Begin. There is also opinions that many Israeli politicians along with business owners felt that Histadrut was getting too influential in politics and day to day life. But the most apparent cold hard fact was the constant wars Israeli was caught or waged that drove up inflation along with the deficit to such levels that many felt programs had to be cut to avoid the state from going into insolvency. I find this article, even though a little opinionated and no links to further verify much of the sources, gives an incite to the internal upheaval that lead Israel away from big socialism.

So in my opinion in order for Israel to remain largely Labor Zionist the state would need to avoid costly wars, keep its imports and exports suppressed. This means though forgoing what would be one of the state's most profitable and still within arms length of government control, its military industrial complex.
 
Having Soviet actions create a more leftist Israel would seem to be unlikely to work since it wouldn't necessarily change the zionist/Israeli domestic scene. It could also backfire. Having the Soviets take the active role in 'sovietising' another country is an invitation for them to meddle with their policies. This could either result in a country that was subsumed into the Soviet system, irrespective of its own interests, or if they successfully resist they will probably be anti-Soviet for a lifetime.

If you could somehow change the political dynamic of the zionist movement early in the piece you could see Israel going socialist/communist independently. This creates a situation more akin of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, with the key exception that Israel needs the Soviet Union more as an ally than Yugoslavia did. This probably still doesn't work out long term for reasons discussed above as well as general breaks with the Soviets following the 20th Party Congress, Prague Spring etc.

If you really wanted to go out on a limb, you could have Israel break away from the Soviet camp while the Soviets try to pick up one of their bigger neighbours as a more likely prospect. Like Egypt or Syria (although I don't 100% know where a pro-Soviet Israel leaves all the Arab states politically). Not entirely dissimilar to the swing from support of Somalia to Ethiopia (the bigger, wealthier, neighbour).
 
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