With a PoD sometime after it gains independence in 1948, how can you get Israel to go, if not completely communist, at least socialist and become a Soviet ally? As I understand from reading other (albeit older) threads of this nature, this was by far not a longshot and very easily possible. What I want this thread to become is a discussion on the long-term consequences of that rather than an endless discussion of different PoD's. Primarily, what I want to know would be the likely results concerning world politics, Mid-East politics, changes in Israeli/Arab societies, and the path that the Israeli government takes without the US/French supporting them like they did OTL.
Hopefully this gets more replies and discussion than my other threads. After all, unlike Mayans and Paraguay, people here do seem fond of discussing Israel...
Well, given my limited understanding of this area of Cold War politics most of this could sound like total rubbish, just bear with me though.
Firstly, we need to find an early way of dealing with Soviet anti-Semitism. Stalin was pretty damn bigoted to be honest (and Trotsky being Jewish can't have helped matters) and most of the early emigres to the new State of Israel, while secular, brought a firm sense of anti-Communist and anti-Soviet feeling with them (something that still continues to this day). Incapacitating or removing Stalin early on would play a major role in limiting this. Perhaps getting a Jewish leader of the Soviet Union to replace him could help with this.
Secondly, we need an American administration that views an alliance with Israel as being of lesser benefit that closer ties to the Arab nations. I believe that George Marshall was a great supporter of this view, perhaps if the Soviets make clearer ambitions on Iraq rather than Iran (which is possible) then that would be enough to swing US interests towards the Arab League in order to safeguard oil supplies and reduce the risk of Soviet expansion southwards.
Okay. Say that Stalin dies five years earlier (thus butterflying away the Doctors' Plot) and is succeeded by (mainly because I have a personal interest him) Lazar Kaganovich (not massively unlikely, Khrushchev would be too junior at this point, no-one would want Beria, and Molotov was too divisive). "Iron Lazar" atheist or not, will at least stop the anti-sematic propaganda still present in Soviet life. This is greeted positively in Israel, with many of the population quietly pleased to have seen a young cobbler from Kiev succeed in the face of rather hostile conditions for him.
Looking for a means to increase Soviet power, General-Secretary Kaganovich casts his eyes towards that long held dream of Moscow's, a warm water port. With Iraq and Iran still in a state of flux from the war, he chooses to move troops towards the boarder.
At the same time, Secretary of State Marshall signs a major treaty with the fledgling Arab League to provide agricultural equipment in return for increased oil revenues. The secular Pan-Arabism of figures such as Nasser is fairly popular with the US Administration and ties become warmer over the next few years and many within the White House soon begin to view the League as a vital bulwark against the expansionist superpower to the north.
Isreal, meanwhile, starved of support from either Washington (who seem to have abandoned them as soon as they created them) and London (Ernest Bevin being pretty much as anti-Zionist as one can get) begin to look to the other major power block for support.
A very shaky start, but hopefully vaguely plausible?
