A shattered USSR and a stronger Europe.
POD: June 1940.
POD is that the French Government flees to Algeria with a decent chunk of the French Army (2 Corps worth of Infantry) and the French Air Force. French Navy also sails for North Africa.
The French government (in Algiers) roars defiance at Germany, while troops from Tunisia attack Libya. Obviously, there is no RN attack on Mers-el Kebir, and the French Empire stays in the war on the Allied side. The Germans set up a rump French government in Vichy that is ignored by everyone - even the Italians after a while.
The French from Tunisia and the British from Egypt make short work of Italian Libya; the British also reduce Italian East Africa. Sealion is not even a remote possibility with the French Navy formly in Allied hands, and Hitler aborts the Battle of Britain early, before Luftwaffe losses mount too high.
The rapid fall of Libya ends the North African campaign before it begins. Hitler pretty much ignores the Italians - except that butterflies cause the Abwhehr to get wind of the Greece operation. Hitler sternly warns Mussolini against balkan entanglements; Mussolini agrees, placated by Nice and Savoy. This means that all of the commitments that in OTL went to North Africa will head to Russia instead.
All of this means that the remainder of 1940 and early 1941 are semi-anticlimatic - some call it 'Sitzkreig II'. The warring parties glare at each other - from London and Algeirs at Berlin and Rome - but apart from naval skirmishing in the Med and U-boats operating from French ports, the war is a dull grind.
Realizing that North Africa will be their home for a bit, the French adopt a much more concilatory attitude towards the non-French inhabitants, and invest more in local infrastructure - primary to support the build up troops earmarcked for an eventual invasion of Italy. The British base more troops there and Hitler does have to shift some Luftwaffe squadrons to Sicily to protect Southern Italy from Allied Air Raids.
Both Greece and Yugoslavia cling frantically to their neutrality, and Hitler is disinclined to mess with them if the Allies stay out until the USSR is dealt with.
In 1941, butterflies cause slight better weather, and with no real active fronts, the Germans move Barbarossa up. It launches on June 1, and the extra three weeks of campaigning weather net the Soviet government fleeing Moscow, which becomes an urban combat hellscape starting in October. The Germans do gain the propaganda coup of hoisting the swastika over the ruins of the Kremlin, but the city isn't totally secured until December. Stalin is deposed on the way to Kubyshev, and replaced by Molotov.
In the Pacific, Japan does sezie IndoChina in July of 1941. This almost causes war with the Allies; the infuriated French as dissuaded from war by the British, who want to stay focused on the USSR. The USA acts much as it did, ans Pearl Harbor occurs on schedule.
The Soviets are screaming for aid, but there is much less to be had. The Germans take Murmansk in September of 1941. Rommel is leading a panzer corps in the south, and encircles Stalingrad in 1942. The Germans have reach the limit of their logistics, however, and the Red Army holds Volga except for Rommel's bridgehead. It is Germany's high water mark.
The Allies land in Sardinia in May of 1942 and Corsica in June. Both fall easily, and the US, UK and France all land corps in Sicily in July. They run into surprising strong resistance as the best Italian troops bolstered by German units fight hard. Allied naval gunfire support and airpower save the day, but Sicily is not cleared until November. The Allies learn many hard lessons in Sicily that will serve them well. Additionally, the French get a measure of revenge.
Musso falls in December of 1942, and, as in OTL, the Germans are there. Far fewer commitments (no Balkan garrison, no troops lost in North Africa) mean the German garrison in Italy is much stronger. The Allies land in Salerno in March of 1943, and run into tough resistance; again, Allied naval gunfire and airpower save the day.
With America's entry, and the seeming emasculation of the USSR, Hitler transfers some formations west. The Red Army is down, not out, and a counterattack pockets Rommel in Stalingrad. Less aid from the West (No Murmansk, no Persia) means the Soviet lack the logistical strength from OTL, and Rommel bashes free. The Soviet attack bogs down, but forces the Germans to leave more troops in Russia.
The line in Italy stabalizes at Cassino, and the Allies spend fruitless months proving Kesselring is a master of defensive warfare. Churchill wins a periphery debate and in July, the Allies land in Norway. The terrain favor the Germans, but a critical piece of luck - the Allies learn the location of a meeting of the ranking German officers in Norway and bomb it - and help from the Norwegian resistance mean Allied landings at Bergen, Narvik and Tromso go well, and the country is cleared by November. Allied forces also take Murmansk, freeing up a supply line to the Soviets.
Allied heavy bombers are based in Norway, and pummel Germany. Hitler launches an ill-advised attempt to reinforce Norway in October, which sees the destruction of the remaining German surface navy, and death of Student as the Germans have the misfortune of landing paratroopers almost on top of an American armored division, which cuts them to pieces.
Overlord come in May of 1944. The invasion front is even stronger the French contribute an entire corps. With DeGaulle merely a general, and not the leader, the French get along much better with the WAllies. Again, fierce resistance means slower going until the Allies achieve critical mass of material, and breakout much as in OTL.
After Paris falls, the Germans finally concede, and start bringing back major formations from Russia. The Russians brutally re-occupy Moscow in a battle lasting from October of 1944 to January of 1945. However, German foot infantry is not as fast as American mechanized infantry, especially as the USAAF and RAF are destroying the Reich's logistical network.
The alt-Bulge happens in November of 1944, but the skies are clearer, and while making some progress, it is even costlier for the Germans. The Allies ontain it, and then strike deep into Germany - Patton gets the bridge at Remegan in January of 1945. Germany enters its death throes, with Berlin falling in April of 1945 to the Americans. Hitler attempts to flee to Konigsberg to continue the fight, but is caught by a British air raid and killed. Without his leadership, the Germans collapse, and surrender in June of 1945. The Wallies meet the Red Army at Minsk and Kiev.
In the Pacific, things progress as in OTL except that French anger over IndoChina mean that the CBI theatre is much more of a Franco-British affair; few Americans are involved. Taking back Hanoi is as much of a French prioity as Manila is to MacArthur, so the fighting there is even more brutal. Along the way, the French also screw up relations with Ho Chi Minh.
Two a-bombs end Japan's resistance more-or-less as in OTL.
Result: The French and British Empires LOOK stronger than in OTL, and Russia is sorely wounded. The new regime is lot poorer and friendler-seeming than Stalin's. Poland get it's 1939 borders back, and there is an independent rump Ukraine.
Immediate post-war analysis credits the French Empire with providing far more support to the overall war effort than it actually did. This makes the British and French even more keen to hold on to their Empires than in OTL. The Americans balk at this; they have no interest in supporting European empires. As the 1940s progress, independence movements flair up all over the European Empires; these movemetns are met with more and more force. The Americans grow digusted with that, and with no real threat from the reduced USSR, retreat back to America.
How's that?
Mike Turcotte