Island Base defence scheme finished sooner.

CalBear

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The question is how Japan responds to this development.

A second wave concentrating on the more formidable US bases or ignore the Dutch East Indies to take out the US bases as soon as possible? Air power comparable to a medium carrier, a reinforced battalion and much more artillery is going to be noticed and Japan won't have any choice but to plan a response.


Again, that is the big difference in the early war years.

If the Japanese screw around in the central Pacific, they won't be able to grab the DEI effectively unopposed. The DEI was the entire point of the whole Pacific lunge. Even if the Dutch only have enough time to really wreck the oil fields and fuel storage facilities, the Japanese are toast.


Guam is not a good spot to invade, unlike many of the other Pacific sandspits both Guam and Saipan have actual terrain that can be used for defense, if not in depth, at least back from the water's edge. A Marine Defense Battalion and maybe a regiment (ideally a RCT) of army troops, along with say a squadron of Wildcats could be a REAL bitch for the Japanese to deal with considering the Japanese's serious issues with amphibious operations and the shoestring the entire Southern Strategy had to run on. Taking Guam with the propoaed defenses would be a divisional, maybe even multi-division action. The Japanese would have been hard pressed to find even an extra brigade, much less a division to conduct the assault.
 

Markus

Banned
Guam is actually an interesting case. ... The Japanese only had 5,500 men available to attack Guam, and they were then moved almost immediately to the south to attack Rabaul. A 3,000-4,000 man garrision on Guam could very possibly have held the island.


Now that is interesting. If they suffer severe casualties a good part of the New Guinea Campaign and the entire Solomons Campaing would be butterflied away. Yes, GC was developed by their Navy but if they only have a small foothold on the north shore of NG, they would have had other priorities than GC.

@Grimm Reaper: The smart move would be to isolate Guam, go after the DEI and come back later. As IOTL P-38s barely existed and Corsairs not at all, reinforcement by air would have been difficult to say the least.

edit: Seeing the Japanese stuck in the central pacific the Australians might be far less worried about an invasion and thus could have rushed some militia battalions to NG and Rabaul. That would end the NG Campaign before it really gets started.
 
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Bearcat

Banned
Given the IJN/IJA approach to the war, there is a real chance they still try to do too much and fall between stools.

They need the DEI oil and can't wait too long to seize it.

They believe to be secure they have to neutralize both the PI and Singapore.

But they also can't have the US slowly building up in the Marianas and ultimately presenting a dagger held to their throats.

And they believe they have to keep their boot on China's throat, and keep an eye on the Russians.

We've often remarked here how OTL was almost a wank for Japan - everything had to go right, and it did. It probably doesn't take much for their whole strategy to unravel and land in the crapper.
 

CalBear

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Given the IJN/IJA approach to the war, there is a real chance they still try to do too much and fall between stools.

They need the DEI oil and can't wait too long to seize it.

They believe to be secure they have to neutralize both the PI and Singapore.

But they also can't have the US slowly building up in the Marianas and ultimately presenting a dagger held to their throats.

And they believe they have to keep their boot on China's throat, and keep an eye on the Russians.

We've often remarked here how OTL was almost a wank for Japan - everything had to go right, and it did. It probably doesn't take much for their whole strategy to unravel and land in the crapper.

The first six months of the Pacific War was a Japan wank to a degree that it would be flamed to death here if it hadn't actually happened. Everything they did worked and everything the allies did didn't. Coral Sea ended that. The amazing thing was that Yamamoto called it almost to the week when he said he would run wild for six months.

The Japanese HAD to try the whole package, or none of it at all. They HAD to do it between December of 1941 and March of 1942 or not do it at all. They had that small of a window before the U.S. shook off the rust and became literally unbeatable. Japan bet the whole paycheck on a pair of threes and a good bluff.

Didn't work out.
 
I agree that with proper defense installations, an army RCT, Marine Defense Bn & adequate modern fighters (not P-35's) taking Guam with only 5500 troops and not a lot of air cover becomes very difficult for the Japanese. To be effective the reinforcements have to get there by summer 1941 to become accustomed to the island, develop coordination plans (army & Marines - who's in charge??) etc. I see that as the major issue. You can build the fortifications etc if you start earlier and spend the $$, but finding the troops, tanks, and a/c and getting there by summer 1941 means stealing them from elsewhere (where?) or having the US buildup of the armed forces start earlier. Also, while you could send NG units, it was only in late 1940 that draftees were extended past 12 months service....

Assuming Wake holds & Guam is a tough slog (no matter who wins) that carries on for several months & eats resources, then the Japanese drive to NG via the Solomons has to go. DEI & Malaya have to go off as planned, likewise the PI. The only part of the overall plan that was directed to acquiring/protecting the DEI oil & other resources is the drive towards Australia.
 
I agree that with proper defense installations, an army RCT, Marine Defense Bn & adequate modern fighters (not P-35's) taking Guam with only 5500 troops and not a lot of air cover becomes very difficult for the Japanese. To be effective the reinforcements have to get there by summer 1941 to become accustomed to the island, develop coordination plans (army & Marines - who's in charge??) etc. I see that as the major issue. You can build the fortifications etc if you start earlier and spend the $$, but finding the troops, tanks, and a/c and getting there by summer 1941 means stealing them from elsewhere (where?) or having the US buildup of the armed forces start earlier. Also, while you could send NG units, it was only in late 1940 that draftees were extended past 12 months service....

Assuming Wake holds & Guam is a tough slog (no matter who wins) that carries on for several months & eats resources, then the Japanese drive to NG via the Solomons has to go. DEI & Malaya have to go off as planned, likewise the PI. The only part of the overall plan that was not directed to acquiring/protecting the DEI oil & other resources is the drive towards Australia.
 
edit: Seeing the Japanese stuck in the central pacific the Australians might be far less worried about an invasion and thus could have rushed some militia battalions to NG and Rabaul. That would end the NG Campaign before it really gets started.

No go I'm afraid. Sending militia units overseas was illegal, thats why we raised the AIF. When the AIF returns from the Mid East they could go to Rabaul, but whether that would be timely or not is another matter.
 

Markus

Banned
No go I'm afraid. Sending militia units overseas was illegal, thats why we raised the AIF. When the AIF returns from the Mid East they could go to Rabaul, but whether that would be timely or not is another matter.

The laws must have been changed at some time. Aussie militia units were actually fighting on NG before the AIF.
 
PNG was at the time 2 territories, the southern half was handed to us by Britain in 1904 and considered an Australian territory. New Guinea was an ex German territory administered under a LoN mandate post WW1, and so wasn't considered Australian territory. Kakoda was in Papua hence the miracle of the militia, but the AIF was needed to cross the 'border' into New Guinea.
 
So about a full Marine Regiment?

More men on Wake will definitely make it a tough nut to crack. But more men means more rations. In this case I think food and water will be as important as ammuntion, the defenders may end up starved out.
 

Bearcat

Banned
More men on Wake will definitely make it a tough nut to crack. But more men means more rations. In this case I think food and water will be as important as ammuntion, the defenders may end up starved out.

I don't think so. The IJN at this time has a big hammer in Kido Butai and the air groups, but they are not able to be that persistent. Wake is a long, long way from home. Carrier groups need lots of logistical support and Japan doesn't put enough resources into that.

I can see the Japanese hitting Wake hard once or twice but a long persistent blockade - the kind you need to strangle a base - is probably beyond their capabilities.

More likely they build up in the Marshalls and you have a long range air war of attrition. Unfortunately for Japan, we've already seen IOTL that those don't work out so well for them.

Wake takes the place of Guadalcanal in this ATL. The Japanese may never get to the Solomons. The Central Pacific Advance will still not start until the Essex-class ships are in commission and the USN learns how to use its embarrassment of riches, but when it does, the storm will hit even harder.
 

Markus

Banned
PNG was at the time 2 territories, the southern half was handed to us by Britain in 1904 and considered an Australian territory. New Guinea was an ex German territory administered under a LoN mandate post WW1, and so wasn't considered Australian territory. Kakoda was in Papua hence the miracle of the militia, but the AIF was needed to cross the 'border' into New Guinea.

Help me out mate,

back in the day the Brits dumped you guys in some wilderness on the other end of the world for NOT respecting the law, didn´t they? What happened? Such legalistic manouvering in wartime is almost ... German. Modern day German, not WW1/2 Germany. :D
 
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eltf177, not so much as you might think.

There was a large construction force on Wake OTL when the war began and the intention was that they would naturally leave once the work was done. If we assume the work is already done then the ration situation may not be as bad as you think.

Not that Japan is going to like the idea of waiting for months in hopes of starving the island into submission.
 
Markus, what can I tell you, the convict past was for decades called 'the stain' and efforts were made to ignore and surpass it.

More appropriately it wasn't considered good form/fair for conscripts to be sent outside Australia, they were defending the country only.
 
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