Islamist Iraq?

What if the Iranians had won the Battle of Basra and spread the Islamic Revolution to Iraq, toppling Saddam Hussein and installing a Shiite Fundamentalist govenrment friendly to Iran?
 
I imagine that the remaining Arab countries will band together against the threat of an Iranian dominated Middle East and they will probably tone down the anti-Israeli rhetoric since Iran is a common enemy of both the Arab states and Israel.

Expect Iraq itself to be very unstable. The Arab world will fund Sunni resistance against the fundamentalist Sh'ia regime and the resistance will probably be under the banner of remaining Ba'athist elements. Neither the USSR, nor the US were friends with Tehran so expect them to support resistance against the Shi'a regime too. This way you could get a civil war between the Arab Socialist/Nationalist, secular Sunnis under Ba'ath leadership and the Iranian imposed puppet regime.

Btw, many Iraqi Shi'ites themselves were anti-Iranian themselves so the Shi'a regime will have to deal with dissent within their own community as well...
 
Yeah I would expect it to be very much a Garrison state and Iranian puppet. The whole country could be under Iranian occupation for some time.
 
I can see the Shi'a Kurds splitting off from the Shi'a Arabs- though they could try and negotiate an independent or autonomous homeland. I'm not sure how the Turkmen would go. The Druze would fight alongside the Sunnis- the Shi'a might go after them.

Of course, lest we forget, there might be a young Saudi who wants to wage Jihad against the heretical Shi'a and begins organizing forces to fight the Shi'a and Iranian invasion. The group is known as "The Base"...or "Al-Quaida"..
 
What if the Iranians had won the Battle of Basra and spread the Islamic Revolution to Iraq, toppling Saddam Hussein and installing a Shiite Fundamentalist govenrment friendly to Iran?

An even closer relationship between the US and the corrupt gulf Arabs.

Expect a Shia uprising in Bahrain supported by Iranian and Iraqi forces.

This might provoke an American response. It would be an easy war retaking an island and the Arabs would pay the Americans lots of cash to help them. They may also be asked to garrison Kuwait. Not too different from post 1991.

A Shia ruled Iraq at this time would also mean an open corridor to Syria which was/is friendly to Iran. You would get a new Middle East power bloc.

Iran is less isolated and is more powerful. The Sunni in Iraq would cause little trouble as the new regime wouldn't tolerate it for long. Expect Sunni refugees in Jordan, Lebannon etc.
 
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