Islamic State of Trinidad & Tobago- WI Jamaat al Muslimeen coup succeeded?

So here's an interesting WI scenario- what if Jamaat al Muslimeen's coup attempt had been successful? Let's say that, ITTL, the Muslimeen insurgents at the Red House give PM Robinson his thorough beat-down, and shoot him in the leg, before putting him on the phone, and he orders the army and police to stand down instead, with the ensuing negotiations eventually resulting in the army and police agreeing to accept Yasin Abu Bakr's coup...

First, Robinson's order is illegal. I don't know anything about Trinidadian law, but I would still guarantee that there is no provision for the Prime Minister to order the police and armed forces to cooperate with criminals; I am also sure there is provision for the government to ignore orders issued by the PM under duress.

Second, why on earth would army and police commanders "[agree] to accept Yasin Abu Bakr's coup..."? They aren't Moslems. Only about 5% of Trinidadians are Moslems, so maybe one or two of the senior officers are Moslems. (And even those would be conventional Moslems, not fanatics.) Why would the commanders agree to enforce the rule of a Moslem terrorist?
 
Also according to rumours Abu Bakr's plan wasn't to assume power himself or create an Islamic state. He wanted to install Minister of Planning, Winston Dookeran as the new Prime Minister of a Unity Government.

Even if this happened you would have had active opposition by the other parties . The Pnm with their urban poor and the Unc with the trade unions.
 
Also according to rumours Abu Bakr's plan wasn't to assume power himself or create an Islamic state. He wanted to install Minister of Planning, Winston Dookeran as the new Prime Minister of a Unity Government.

Even if this happened you would have had active opposition by the other parties . The Pnm with their urban poor and the Unc with the trade unions.
I wasn’t alive at the time but I don’t think many people would support that. The military definitely wouldn’t let it happen. I’m sure PNM wouldn’t let them be legitimatized like that. The regiment would probably overthrow the government if they did.
 
My initial thought was that there would be a US intervention similar to Grenada - but this coup attempt started less than a week before Iraq invaded Kuwait. The US and other countries set sanctions on the new Islamic government but there isn't much else that they could do while gearing up for Desert Shield / Storm. Ultimately, the islamic government would have collapsed by counter-coup.

It only took 7,600 US troops for Grenada. 697,000 US soldiers were involved in Desert Shield/Storm. The invasion force for Trinidad--if it were even necessary--would be so small and would win so quickly that it would not in any serious way interfere with the preparations for the Gul War.
 

nbcman

Donor
It only took 7,600 US troops for Grenada. 697,000 US soldiers were involved in Desert Shield/Storm. The invasion force for Trinidad--if it were even necessary--would be so small and would win so quickly that it would not in any serious way interfere with the preparations for the Gul War.
The major unit that was involved in the Grenada invasion (82nd Airborne was in overall command) was one of the first units deployed to Saudi Arabia so if a US invasion of Trinidad didn't take place before the Iraqis invaded Kuwait, the 82nd Airborne and other rapid deployment units would be packing up for the desert, not Trinidad.
 
The major unit that was involved in the Grenada invasion (82nd Airborne was in overall command) was one of the first units deployed to Saudi Arabia so if a US invasion of Trinidad didn't take place before the Iraqis invaded Kuwait, the 82nd Airborne and other rapid deployment units would be packing up for the desert, not Trinidad.

The Trinidad action would take a few days at the most, and could easily be done without any serious interference with Desert Shield/Storm which took many months.
 
It only took 7,600 US troops for Grenada. 697,000 US soldiers were involved in Desert Shield/Storm. The invasion force for Trinidad--if it were even necessary--would be so small and would win so quickly that it would not in any serious way interfere with the preparations for the Gul War.
You would only need a few battalions, probably not as many as Grenada. The Regiment and the legitimate government would be on the US side, and still have control of the country outside of inner Port of Spain.
 

nbcman

Donor
The Trinidad action would take a few days at the most, and could easily be done without any serious interference with Desert Shield/Storm which took many months.
And why would the US action need to take place at all? There wasn't a US fear of Islamic forces in 1990 as there is after the 9/11 attacks or even after some of the other attacks on US interests in the 1990s. Islamic forces like the Mujahideen were viewed at least neutrally if not positively in the late 1980s - see Rambo III.
 
And why would the US action need to take place at all? There wasn't a US fear of Islamic forces in 1990 as there is after the 9/11 attacks or even after some of the other attacks on US interests in the 1990s. Islamic forces like the Mujahideen were viewed at least neutrally if not positively in the late 1980s - see Rambo III.

Even before the coup failed, there were cries that Libya was behind it. https://www.deseretnews.com/article/115058/WHAT-LIBYA-ROLE-IN-TRINIDAD-REVOLT.html See also "White House officials in Kennebunkport, Me., where President Bush is spending the weekend, said they were monitoring the situation and that they were concerned about reported links between the rebels and Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, Libya's leader." https://www.nytimes.com/1990/07/28/world/trinidad-muslims-proclaim-revolt.html

And anti-Libyan sentiment long pre-dated 9/11: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1986_United_States_bombing_of_Libya
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan_Am_Flight_103
 
And why would the US action need to take place at all? There wasn't a US fear of Islamic forces in 1990 as there is after the 9/11 attacks or even after some of the other attacks on US interests in the 1990s. Islamic forces like the Mujahideen were viewed at least neutrally if not positively in the late 1980s - see Rambo III.
It’s a bloody coup! They are definitely not going to be friendly with the US and if the intervention happens, the T&T Goverment probably requested it. It isn’t about them being Islamic or not.
 
Top