Islamic State of Trinidad & Tobago- WI Jamaat al Muslimeen coup succeeded?

Zachariah

Banned
The Jamaat al Muslimeen coup attempt was an attempt to overthrow the government of Trinidad and Tobago, instigated on Friday, 27 July 1990, by the militant Islamist group Jamaat al Muslimeen, in which 114 members of the Jamaat al Muslimeen attempted to stage a coup against the government of Trinidad and Tobago. 42 insurgents stormed The Red House, the seat of Parliament, and took Robinson and most of his cabinet hostage, while 72 of their accomplices attacked the offices of Trinidad and Tobago Television (TTT), the only television station in the country at that time, and the Trinidad Broadcasting Company, then one of only two radio stations in the country. At 6:00 pm, Yasin Abu Bakr appeared on television and announced that the government had been overthrown and that he was negotiating with the army. He called for calm and said that there should be no looting.

PM Robinson was beaten, degraded and shot in the lower right leg when he tried to order the army to attack the militants. The army and the police responded by sealing off the area around the Red House. Widespread looting and arson took place in Port of Spain and other parts of the East-West Corridor, but the remainder of the country was calm. American Airlines and British Airways cancelled all flights to the capital city. A state of emergency was declared by acting president Emmanuel Carter and martial law was imposed. Several cabinet members who had not been present in the Red House at the time of the attack set up office in the Trinidad Hilton. On the night of 27 July, the army took control of the TTT transmitter on Cumberland Hill, thus taking TTT off the air. But Jamaat al Muslimeen continued to negotiate with the army, holding their hostages at the Red House and at the headquarters of Trinidad and Tobago Television for the next six days, before eventually surrendering on 1 August and being taken into custody. They were tried for treason, but the Court of Appeal upheld the amnesty offered to secure their surrender, and they were released. The Privy Council later invalidated the amnesty, but the Muslimeen members were not re-arrested.

So here's an interesting WI scenario- what if Jamaat al Muslimeen's coup attempt had been successful? Let's say that, ITTL, the Muslimeen insurgents at the Red House give PM Robinson his thorough beat-down, and shoot him in the leg, before putting him on the phone, and he orders the army and police to stand down instead, with the ensuing negotiations eventually resulting in the army and police agreeing to accept Yasin Abu Bakr's coup, and in Abu Bakr effectively being installed as the military dictator of Trinidad and Tobago by August 1st 1990. How much of a geopolitical impact would this have had? And how long could Yasin Abu Bakr's Islamic State of Trinidad and Tobago have possibly endured- would it fall to internal pressures, external pressures, or would it have had a chance of clinging on past the present day?
 
It would have collapsed to a counter-coup. It has no internal support whatsoever, and the military would have opposed it immediately.
 
Well I know almost nothing about Trinidad and Tobago, so I though if some Muslims tries to coup themselves to power, they have to be a major population group. So I read the Wiki... Well 5% of the population are Muslims. I think we can expect in a successful coup, that it end in some pretty ugly anti-Muslim pogroms and a counter coup.
 

nbcman

Donor
My initial thought was that there would be a US intervention similar to Grenada - but this coup attempt started less than a week before Iraq invaded Kuwait. The US and other countries set sanctions on the new Islamic government but there isn't much else that they could do while gearing up for Desert Shield / Storm. Ultimately, the islamic government would have collapsed by counter-coup.
 
Well I know almost nothing about Trinidad and Tobago, so I though if some Muslims tries to coup themselves to power, they have to be a major population group. So I read the Wiki... Well 5% of the population are Muslims. I think we can expect in a successful coup, that it end in some pretty ugly anti-Muslim pogroms and a counter coup.

Indeed. Which would be quite depressing - hell, it's depressing that someone tried it anyway. My friend from Trinidad said that what she liked best about it was how massively diverse it was - she herself had African, Indian and Chinese in her family, and friends from multiple religions and ethnicities. Any one group trying to dominate a mix like that is just wrong...

Mind you: as I say, it'd never hold power. Apart from Muslims being a minority...anyone who tried to ban Carnival on Trinidad & Tobago would be toppled in days :D
 
Well I know almost nothing about Trinidad and Tobago, so I though if some Muslims tries to coup themselves to power, they have to be a major population group. So I read the Wiki... Well 5% of the population are Muslims. I think we can expect in a successful coup, that it end in some pretty ugly anti-Muslim pogroms and a counter coup.

But what anti-Muslim pogroms could they do? Virtually everyone's a non-Muslim, and it's difficult to commit pogroms against nearly everyone.
 

Ryan

Donor
But what anti-Muslim pogroms could they do? Virtually everyone's a non-Muslim, and it's difficult to commit pogroms against nearly everyone.

he means that there will be pogroms against the Muslims, not that there will pogroms against non Muslims.

and i agree, i think there could certainly be a substantial amount of the population thinking "5% of the population is Muslim? that's 5% too much!"
 
When the cold war gives way to the war on terror, Trinidad would be the new Cuba, and it would be propped by Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia instead of the Soviet Union.

I mean, probably not, but that's the most interesting scenario I can see arising out of that.
 

Zachariah

Banned
When the cold war gives way to the war on terror, Trinidad would be the new Cuba, and it would be propped by Wahhabists in Saudi Arabia instead of the Soviet Union.

I mean, probably not, but that's the most interesting scenario I can see arising out of that.
Well, Jamaat al Muslimeen's biggest financial backer and supporter was Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's Libya, and they purportedly sought to impose a similar Jamahiriya system. So it doesn't seem likely that the Saudis or Wahhabi'ists would be too enamoured with their Islamic state in T&T; but if it did survive (IK, probably wouldn't have a chance of enduring, but still), that would certainly be very interesting. Very interesting indeed...
 

Asami

Banned
I think it gets ganked by 2004, particularly if it is known to house any 9/11 conspirators.
 
The Muslim population of Trinidad is 5%, and I would expect that only a small percentage of those would welcome a hyper-religious government. Even with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait about to happen, the reality is that a couple of companies of Marines off a MEU will end this pretty quickly, or you see some paratroopers arrive and deal with this. The USA simply won't allow this, and >95% of the population of Trinidad & Tobago will be more than happy to see the USA step in restore normality.
 
The TnT Army is an Infantry Brigade in size and has a special forces CRT unit trained by the British and US and enough of the Government remained free to form a legitimate Civil administration and legal Chain of Command.

The Army would not be standing down.
 
The Muslim population of Trinidad is 5%, and I would expect that only a small percentage of those would welcome a hyper-religious government. Even with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait about to happen, the reality is that a couple of companies of Marines off a MEU will end this pretty quickly, or you see some paratroopers arrive and deal with this. The USA simply won't allow this, and >95% of the population of Trinidad & Tobago will be more than happy to see the USA step in restore normality.

This. Hell, you could even send some troops enroute to Saudi Arabia, simply having them make a detour to Trinidad first. About the only way I can see this lasting more then a month tops is if the coup has heavy, and I mean HEAVY support from outside the country.
 
I think that there would have to be significantly more Jammat militants and if they could do all those things and perhaps blow up a bridge from the Chaguramas military base... again super unlikely to succeed, but it could cause a longer period of unrest and they could perhaps hold onto a few buildings in Port of Spain. Really a more interesting scenario is a Black Power revolt in the 1970s or 80s, which would have at least nominal support in the population and the military and might be able to overthrow the government or at least cause a brief low intensity civil war.
 
So here's an interesting WI scenario- what if Jamaat al Muslimeen's coup attempt had been successful? Let's say that, ITTL, the Muslimeen insurgents at the Red House give PM Robinson his thorough beat-down, and shoot him in the leg, before putting him on the phone, and he orders the army and police to stand down instead, with the ensuing negotiations eventually resulting in the army and police agreeing to accept Yasin Abu Bakr's coup, and in Abu Bakr effectively being installed as the military dictator of Trinidad and Tobago by August 1st 1990. How much of a geopolitical impact would this have had? And how long could Yasin Abu Bakr's Islamic State of Trinidad and Tobago have possibly endured- would it fall to internal pressures, external pressures, or would it have had a chance of clinging on past the present day?


Has somebody been taking seriously M. J. Engh's Arslan?

(The premier of an Asian state kills the Soviet General Secretary and calls the chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces, ordering him to go on alert, while he issues a surrender ultimatum to the U.S. The chief of the Strategic Rocket Forces would tell Arslan what he could do with his mother, and in ten minutes the KGB Bodyguard Directorate would have shot Arslan dead as he screamed at them that he had abolished the Soviet Union and they were to put down their guns.)
 
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