Isabellas and Ferdinands son lives to old age + no Charles V

Maximilian I, Holy Roman Emperor, made two marriage alliances with Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile. The most famous one is that between his son, Philip and Joanna (Juana), the daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella. However, there was also a marriage alliance between Maximilians daughter, Margaret and the son of Ferdinand and Isabella, John (Juan). The latter, however, died in 1497, at the age of 21 and the crowns of Castile and Aragon therefore fell to Juana and Philip. Because of this, their son, Charles V, inherited their parents domain, and that of his paternal grandfather (Maximilian survived his son, Philip).

So, the question: What could be some possible butterflies if Juan, the son of Ferdinand and Isabella had survived to old age and if Philip had died before he got any child (meaning that Juana was not pregnant at the time of his death)? This would mean that neither Charles V, nor his siblings, were ever born.
 
Maximilian I, Holy Roman Emperor, made two marriage alliances with Ferdinand of Aragon and Isabella of Castile. The most famous one is that between his son, Philip and Joanna (Juana), the daughter of Ferdinand and Isabella. However, there was also a marriage alliance between Maximilians daughter, Margaret and the son of Ferdinand and Isabella, John (Juan). The latter, however, died in 1497, at the age of 21 and the crowns of Castile and Aragon therefore fell to Juana and Philip. Because of this, their son, Charles V, inherited their parents domain, and that of his paternal grandfather (Maximilian survived his son, Philip).

So, the question: What could be some possible butterflies if Juan, the son of Ferdinand and Isabella had survived to old age and if Philip had died before he got any child (meaning that Juana was not pregnant at the time of his death)? This would mean that neither Charles V, nor his siblings, were ever born.
So it's a reverse of the situation?
 
Actually when Juan died the position of heir went to his other sister, Isabella. And when she died it passed to her son Miguel de Paz. Only when he died did it pass to Juana.

Anyways, if Juan is the heir then you will not see Ferdinand remarrying to try to separate Aragon from Castile. OTL he only did that because he did not want some foreign monarch ruling over Aragon. Here though its his own son, so expect him to do his best to streamline his inheritance of Aragon. Also considering it is his son ruling over Castile rather than Philip (he ruled in Juana's place before his death) Ferdinand won't get sent back to Aragon. Instead he will be allowed to stay in Castile where he will help his son rule Castile.

If Philip dies without issue expect a shitstorm. The whole reason Maximilian's father inherited as much as he did was because the rest of hiss family died. Which means when Philip dies, Maximilian is left with no close male descended relatives to be heirs. Instead he will have to search among a cadet branch for an heir (I'm not sure about the status of any cadet branches) or he will have to try and fiddle with the succession laws to secure the succession of one of his sister's sons. Either way its a huge blow to Hapsburg imperial ambitions, expect someone else to win the election when Maximilian dies.
 
So it's a reverse of the situation?

Yes.

Actually when Juan died the position of heir went to his other sister, Isabella. And when she died it passed to her son Miguel de Paz. Only when he died did it pass to Juana.

Anyways, if Juan is the heir then you will not see Ferdinand remarrying to try to separate Aragon from Castile. OTL he only did that because he did not want some foreign monarch ruling over Aragon. Here though its his own son, so expect him to do his best to streamline his inheritance of Aragon. Also considering it is his son ruling over Castile rather than Philip (he ruled in Juana's place before his death) Ferdinand won't get sent back to Aragon. Instead he will be allowed to stay in Castile where he will help his son rule Castile.

If Philip dies without issue expect a shitstorm. The whole reason Maximilian's father inherited as much as he did was because the rest of hiss family died. Which means when Philip dies, Maximilian is left with no close male descended relatives to be heirs. Instead he will have to search among a cadet branch for an heir (I'm not sure about the status of any cadet branches) or he will have to try and fiddle with the succession laws to secure the succession of one of his sister's sons. Either way its a huge blow to Hapsburg imperial ambitions, expect someone else to win the election when Maximilian dies.

Is it possible that a son of Juan and Margaret could have ended up inheriting the same geographical areas that Charles V inherited in OTL?
 
They will most likely get the Burgundian inheritance (supposing Margaret gives heirs to John), the Austrian Hereditary Lands are something else entirely since they're under Salic Law (crew womyn), you could see the Wittelbachs claiming it, as William IV of Bavaria-Münich is Maximilian's nephew and the Austrian estates are more likely to accept the Bavarians than the Spanish.

Also, no chance of a Trastamara HRE, the Wittelbachs or the Wettins are gonna to claim it.
 
They will most likely get the Burgundian inheritance (supposing Margaret gives heirs to John), the Austrian Hereditary Lands are something else entirely since they're under Salic Law (crew womyn), you could see the Wittelbachs claiming it, as William IV of Bavaria-Münich is Maximilian's nephew and the Austrian estates are more likely to accept the Bavarians than the Spanish.

Also, no chance of a Trastamara HRE, the Wittelbachs or the Wettins are gonna to claim it.

While William's claim is just as weak as any child of Margaret, seeing as William is the son of Maximilian's daughter. So his inheritance is not assured. But it is obviously more likely than a Spanish succession. The Spanish are focused on the Americas and Italy, not Germany.
 
While William's claim is just as weak as any child of Margaret, seeing as William is the son of Maximilian's daughter. So his inheritance is not assured. But it is obviously more likely than a Spanish succession. The Spanish are focused on the Americas and Italy, not Germany.
That was pretty much my point, the Bavarians are just there, the Trastamaras have to cross all of Germany and most likely fight the Wittelbachs. Honestly, Austria isn't worthy the trouble.

Also the Spanish are going to repeat the same tango as Philip II now that they have the Netherlands and Framche-Comte.
 
I would not be so sure on Spain ending up with the Netherlands. I think Bavaria might end up with it. But whoever ends up with it is going to run in trouble with France, right away. Expect France to contest the succession and try and seize it for themselves.
 
They will most likely get the Burgundian inheritance (supposing Margaret gives heirs to John), the Austrian Hereditary Lands are something else entirely since they're under Salic Law (crew womyn), you could see the Wittelbachs claiming it, as William IV of Bavaria-Münich is Maximilian's nephew and the Austrian estates are more likely to accept the Bavarians than the Spanish.

Also, no chance of a Trastamara HRE, the Wittelbachs or the Wettins are gonna to claim it.

Could it happen that they would get the Habsburg lands, but not get the title as Holy Roman Emperor? If Austria ended up in union with Bavaria, this would definitely be an interesting scenario. Another interesting question is the one that relates to Hungary. According to the Peace of Pressburg (1491), the Habsburg retained a subsidary right to succession in Hungary. In this time line, the Habsburgs would die out. This could lead to some interesting butterflies as well. Maybe Hungary would end up in personal union with Poland and Lithuania? If so, Austria, in union with Bavaria, would become even more dominant inside the HRE than in OTL. If the Reformation still happens, the Holy Roman Emperor would be in a stronger position than in OTL, while France would be even more eager to support anyone who could weaken the Habsburgs.
 
For, Netherlands and Burgundy, I think there is a possibility of a spare heir of the French throne or Charles Orlando(if he survives) marrying the eldest daughter of Margaret of Austria, who in OTL died and get the inheritance of Burgundy and Netherlands..

Margaret's daughter will be the alternative prestige match to Claude of Brittany.
 
Margaret and Juan would most likely have 2/3 surviving children. OTL she only had 1 recorded pregnancy so I doubt they'll have many kids. Maybe something like:

Juan III of Spain (b.1478) m. Margaret of Austria (b.1480) (a)

1a) Stillborn Daughter (c.1498)

2a) Ferdinand of Spain, Prince of Asturias and Girona (b.1501)

3a) Isabella of Spain (b.1503)

4a) Miscarriage (c.1507)

5a) Stillborn Son (c.1510)

6a) Catherine of Spain (b.1513)​
 
I think the stillbirth was partly caused by the stress of Juan's death and that possibly make Margaret unable to have other children or is possible who her second husband was unable to have children so Margaret and Juan can have many children (and there is nothing who can stop them by having the same number of kids of their sibling).

I would not be so sure on Spain ending up with the Netherlands. I think Bavaria might end up with it. But whoever ends up with it is going to run in trouble with France, right away. Expect France to contest the succession and try and seize it for themselves.

While is likely who they will end with Austria (either for direct succession, becoming the new HRE and assigning themselves that lands or receiving them by the new HRE) Bavaria have no claim on Netherlands. Netherlands was the inheritance of Maximilian's first wife so at the death of Duke Philip Margaret will become the legitimate Duchess and her children the heirs after her. If Margaret line will end France will surely claim that lands (and maybe try to take at least a part of them before but Margaret will not take that kindly considering who she was bethroted to the French King, sent in France, then rejected, keeped in custody and released after being forced to give the French a good part of the lands of her dowry)
 
The immediate heiress to the Burgundian inheritance would be Philip's sister, Margaret of Austria, who died childless in 1530. After that, you have to go back a long way, since TTL she is the only surviving child of the only surviving child of an only surviving child, so, butterflies permitting, the next heir would seem to be John III, Duke of Cleves, grandson of the eldest daughter of Duke John the Fearless.

This could be interesting, as it adds additional German territories to the Netherlands, with more to follow assuming John III makes the same marriage as OTL. So we could have a Netherlands far more closely tied to Germany, and presumably never linked with Spain..
 
The immediate heiress to the Burgundian inheritance would be Philip's sister, Margaret of Austria, who died childless in 1530. After that, you have to go back a long way, since TTL she is the only surviving child of the only surviving child of an only surviving child, so, butterflies permitting, the next heir would seem to be John III, Duke of Cleves, grandson of the eldest daughter of Duke John the Fearless.

This could be interesting, as it adds additional German territories to the Netherlands, with more to follow assuming John III makes the same marriage as OTL. So we could have a Netherlands far more closely tied to Germany, and presumably never linked with Spain..

I assume that if the Netherlands had stayed within the HRE, they would have been a very dominant actor. There is, of course, the possibility that they would break out also in this time line, but if they remained (after all the states in the HRE became de facto independent, so there would be no pressing need to formally leave) this would be an important difference from the intra-HRE situation as compared to OTL.
 
Whoops!

There might still have been a link with Spain if Margaret still marries Juan. However, given that both her OTL marriages were childless, it will most likely be only temporary.
 
If Bavaria inherits the Austrian lands - and I can see no other obvious candidate unless there's some junior male line that I haven't heard of - there is also a bigger state in the south of Germany. Could get interesting.
 
Whoops!

There might still have been a link with Spain if Margaret still marries Juan. However, given that both her OTL marriages were childless, it will most likely be only temporary.

I was assuming here that Juan and Margaret got heirs. They did not in OTL, as Juan dies very early.
If Bavaria inherits the Austrian lands - and I can see no other obvious candidate unless there's some junior male line that I haven't heard of - there is also a bigger state in the south of Germany. Could get interesting.

Yes, a united Austria and Bavaria would be interesting. What would happen to Hungary if the Hungarian crown became available also in this time line? Maybe it could fall to Poland?
 
I was assuming here that Juan and Margaret got heirs. They did not in OTL, as Juan dies very early.

Actually there was a child - a premature stillborn daughter born in April 1498. Just a guess, but might complications from this have anything to do with Margaret's failure to have children by her second marriage?

It is of course conceivable that this misfortune may have been caused by shock at the loss of her husband, and so might not have happened had he lived, but the six-month gap (Juan had died the previous October) makes this seem a bit doubtful. But of course there's no way of knowing.
 
It would be like this..

Juan III of Spain (b.1478) m. Margaret of Austria (b.1480) (a)

1a) Isabella of Spain (c.1498)

2a) Ferdinand of Spain, Prince of Asturias and Girona (b.1501)

3a) Eleanor of Spain (b.1503)

4a) Miscarriage (c.1507)

5a) Philip, duke of Burgudy (c.1510)

6a) Catherine of Spain (b.1513)
 

Vitruvius

Donor
The Burgundian Netherlands seem likely to fracture when Philip dies. Guelders was at the time, I believe, in rebellion under Charles of Egmond against Maximilian/Philip. Charles was the son the Duke Adolf from whom Charles the Bold purchased/conquered the Duchy so in the event Philip dies and his sister-heiress is away in Spain Charles may succeed in retaking/holding Guelders. Flanders had been in revolt as recently as 1492 when Maximilian was finally able to reassert control and France had only relinquished claims to Artois in 1493 with the Treaty of Senlis. Both conflicts could reignite. I'm skeptical that Spain could or would send troops to reinforce Margaret's claim in the same manner that Maximilian could rely upon Austrian troops.

So probably some peripheral areas like Artois and Guelders are lost and the rest gain a high degree of autonomy, limiting the extent to which Spain could draw upon the resources of the Netherlands in, for example, a campaign against France. I think Charles V only ever managed to hold on to the Netherlands because he was born there and had a better understanding of the political situation, had an aunt (Maragaret) who could severe as governor and was also Holy Roman Emperor and had territories nearby in Austria. Margaret and Juan would have none of those advantages.
 
Top