Isabella II a boy instead

Idle thoughs here...

There has been much pondering of late on Victoria being Victor and the consequences for Britain.. Assume instead the Maria Christina manages to grant Feridinand a son and heir to the remains of the Spanish Empire.

Assume he still courts the liberals within Spain much the way Isabella courted them.

Obvious results would be no Carlist Wars then ...but what are the other possible benefits to Spain during the 19th C if any...

Can it remain stable and progress incrementally towards a Spanish version of British parliamentary democracy.

The 2nd and more important question, relates to the Scramble for Africa...if Spain is more stable, can they have more influence in Africa mid and later century. Specifically, Can the French and Leopold be cut right out of Central Africa with Britain supporting both the pre-existing Portuguese and Spanish claims in the region. Spain from the Niger to the Ogooue and Portugal points to the south of the Ogooue, in exchange for trading rights in the entire region for Britain. Historically Britain was prpared to support Portugal on this basis for its claims on the entire Congo Basin. Cut France out because of a stronger and more stable Spain with claims in region and that might in deed be possible. Sorry..nothing for Bismarck's Germany in the region...

The goal would be a tripartite protectorate then over the Congo basin by Britain/Spain and Portugal ( Along the lines of Guiana, though that was partitioned, or the New Hebrides) comprised of Middle Congo, CFS, and Ubangi-Shari.
With Spain eventually obtaining Cameroun, and Portugal Gabon. or alternatively ...Spain Gabon and Portugal Middle Congo.

Hopefully this would not lead to war with France...or Germany for that matter if it did... Britain supports the Portuguese in their claims to a protectorate over Dahomey as well.

Is any of this feasible...and what are the ramifications on the African Scramble apart from this if any?
 
Impacts on Italy...

Hmm just thinking...

but a stable Spain leaves them in some position to aid Two Sicilies if needed or respond to the French incursion in Algiers with counter measures of their own... in say Morocco...or Western Sahara and partnership with Morocco ( to resist the later French incursions) aside from the small matter of Ceuta and Melilla.

So North Africa and Italy are also two possible theatres to examine for potential ramifications as well.
 
Alternate Scramble for Africa

and just for kicks...
I thought hey....

AltAfrica.gif
 
Well, first off, if Isabella is a boy, (let's call him Ferdinand IX) there will be no Carlist War, due to no Pragmatic solution and thus no way for Carlos to try and muscle his way onto the throne.

I'd also highly doubt that Ferdinand IX would be all that friendly with the Liberals because his OTL counterpart Isabella wasn't really. From what I understand she courted them purely out of neccessity and was eventually deposed.

Bottom line: If Isabella's a boy, Spain avoids the Carlist Wars, and is more stable leading up to 1848, but then in 1848 expect all hell to break loose!
 
Well, first off, if Isabella is a boy, (let's call him Ferdinand IX) there will be no Carlist War, due to no Pragmatic solution and thus no way for Carlos to try and muscle his way onto the throne.

I'd also highly doubt that Ferdinand IX would be all that friendly with the Liberals because his OTL counterpart Isabella wasn't really. From what I understand she courted them purely out of neccessity and was eventually deposed.

Bottom line: If Isabella's a boy, Spain avoids the Carlist Wars, and is more stable leading up to 1848, but then in 1848 expect all hell to break loose!

I was thinking to simply call him Carlos Ferdinand..but hey whatever...
and yes maybe she did court them because she needed to, that just shows a little pragmatism on her part. So assume then that if Spain is to remain stable then C-F may lean towards the Conservative side of politics but is pragmatic enough not to let it endanger his throne. Besides in 1848 he is not going to be all that old remember he will only just be coming of age. So having him embrace just enough reform to secure his Coronation is probably not out of the question. Maria Christina would still have reigned as regent until this time. Change from his mother's regency would be the thing for the liberals to achieve.
 
ah, having just checked again, the Regency would be under Baldomero Espartero, As M-C could still very well be deposed in 1840, thus the formative years would be under this regency, C-F simply absorbs a little more liberalism than OTL counterpart Isabella II. Or are we going to assume that he reacats against it to put his own stamp on things when the Regency comes to an end.

By then liberalism in Spain will have held sway for quite a few years. It might be dificult to turn back the clock even if he wanted to. So we are still left with no damaging Carlist Wars to sap the strength and energies of the remaining Spanish Empire.
 
The map's nice but not very realistic, but I expect you realise that :) In case anyone reading doesn't, then note that France is unlikely to end up Chad if its not got the Western coast, that kind of thing, that the 'rose-coloured strip' would be an option for Portugal, that the Caprivi Strip always seems unlikely in an ATL, these things

Regarding an African empire, I think Spain would need to focus its resources - is it going for the expansion of its Moroccan holdings, OR of its (North) West African ones OR pushing in the Congo region ? I can't see it doing all of these at once

Ferdinand X's also going to have to marry and that could throw interesting dynamics into the equation, especially if he is determined to break away from the Regency and exert his own personality as early as possible, since this wish is likely to include getting himself a missus !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
1- If Isabel II is Fernando VIII (unavoidable name if he is the son of Ferdinand "I'm the King of Spain and my issue will reign, not my father or brother" VII), then Ferdinand VII has no reasons to 'soft the hand' in his last years, and the liberals would be in an even worse position than in OTL.

2- Ferdinand VII dies in 1833, so his heir is still a toddler. The conservatives are stronger and the liberals weaker, and María Cristina is in a more difficult position. Carlos can be "convinced" by the conservatives to take the throne as regent, maintaining Ferdinand's son as child-king. María Cristina can be tempted to discuss it by the liberals (weaker liberals than in OTL, remember), but she lacks the legitimacy to do that. In TTL she isn't the regent queen trying to protect the legitime Bourbon's royal line, but a foreign woman trying to take the government using her influence on a child king, note the difference. It is a perfect chance to get a civil war in 1833, but this time it would most likely be considered a "liberal rebellion" crushed by Carlos' conservatives. If Ferdinand VII has accepted Carlos as regent or has thrown him in exile like in OTL (which is likely, as he didn't want his brother controlling his succession), that's irrelevant. Carlos is in a perfect position to take control and duplicate the "Abominable Decade" of Ferdinand VII as he wanted.

3- So there is a First "Carlist" War, but not a second. Or at least not a second one as we know it. The 1848 Revolutions probably hit the more conservative Spain in TTL resulting in the overthrown of Carlos' regency and the proclamation of the now 15 years old Ferdinand VIII as king of Spain - still young to be influenced by te liberals, who after more years eating the mud can be tempted to force the king to make more concessions than in OTL. Plus, it is obvious that Ferdinand VIII would not be a bored queen forced to marry his homosexual cousin, so forget the disputes born from the fact that every man rumored to visit the royal bed ended up with an important position on the central government... That is, no revolution of 1868 and none of the events that derivated from there.

4- Who could be the wife of Ferdinand VIII? Obviously, she would be from other European house, as Ferdinand VIII doesn't need to improve his legitimacy against some carlist pretenders that doesn't exist in OTL. Maybe Ferdinand VIII even ends up suggesting Napoleon III to place his beloved cousin Carlos Luis on the Mexican throne in order to bring that country back under its legitimate royal house...
 
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The map's nice but not very realistic, but I expect you realise that :) In case anyone reading doesn't, then note that France is unlikely to end up Chad if its not got the Western coast, that kind of thing, that the 'rose-coloured strip' would be an option for Portugal, that the Caprivi Strip always seems unlikely in an ATL, these things

Regarding an African empire, I think Spain would need to focus its resources - is it going for the expansion of its Moroccan holdings, OR of its (North) West African ones OR pushing in the Congo region ? I can't see it doing all of these at once

Ferdinand X's also going to have to marry and that could throw interesting dynamics into the equation, especially if he is determined to break away from the Regency and exert his own personality as early as possible, since this wish is likely to include getting himself a missus !

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

Well yes the NE is a bit of something I wanted to throw in but was not sure it would be feasible...French allied Egyptian Empire and ( hence giving access to Ouaddai and the other Tchadian states) Couldn't remember ere the penetration by the French was, now it seems to me it must be from the south and the Congo basin. Still I wanted to try and get a true CFS ( perhaps under Leopold's administration, but beholden to an interntional "Advisory committee. 8 commissioners ( 2 Br. 2 Pt, 1 Sp, 1 Ger, 1 Egy and 1 Fr ( ie with possessions or spheres of interest bordering the state at least) all commercial interests would be welcome of course, but only the Br. would get there own Economic Sphere in the Yeke Kdm...Port/Sp support as quid pro quo for their support of claims on the coast during this century....and for greater portuguese interestsin the Shire Valley and Guinea, Spain in West Africa and a revived Bambara Empire (probably Mali...did they even have a name at this time for the state)

this is supposed to be pre 2nd Boer war 1890 so most of those possessions are simply agreed claims, though most will not have been able to establish them in full based on the principle of Effectivity.


As to Spains expansion, I imagined most of the North west in the early part of the Century from the mid '40's on ( in support of Morrocco) and the Equatorial possessions post Berlin Conference. Morocco remaining an independent Sultanate but heavily influenced by Spain to resist French incursions along the Eastern regions. A relationship that may come about during the '30's when the French occupy Algiers. Same with Two Sicilies in Tunisia...though truely I thought initially that that should just be a protectorate or zone of influence and technically like Bosnia and Herczegovina part of the Ottoman Empire...

Actually that makes way more sense really

I will probably change the Greater Somalia scenario some as well by giving Germany the region east of the Tana back ( German Somalia, which is originally what I toyed with, British honesly seems the most likely though, but then not Br. allied Abyssinia to oppose Fr. Allied Egypt.

Once the Canal opens the French will want to be somewhere on the Horn though....Hmm Br. influenced Imerina instead of French Madagascar perhaps ( or French and Br. Zones a la Persia....

As to Maria Christina Tocomocho, you are going to be better versed than I but I simply thiought she would be the likely candidate as mother to Hole the Regency in the wake of Ferdinand's death..and as to the name its ( Carlos after the Grandfather and Ferdinand after the Father. Of Course then there is also, Carlos Ferdinand Felipe which I rather like of course but thats me.

However, perhpas as you suggest it would be Carlos who would head the regency, but I thought Ferdinand didn't want him tohave anything to do with it. Otl M-C was forced out by the liberal general Espartero and exiled...I don't see that happening..NO War for one...simply liberal agitation at first along the lines of the French against Charles in the early '30's...she simply has to point to the alternative to her ( Don Carlos ) and the liberals will probably not push too hard in the initial part of the Regency. She can court the moderates and adopt those parts of the Conservative and Liberal agenda that suit her. Her position will probably be more precarious so whether she gets herselve secretly married to that Garrison commander that caused such a stink, is open to question ...if she is smart she still keeps it as low key as possible but no formal marriage...and no children..heaven forbid. Carlos will head the Conservative faction at court obviously, mind you if he could have been safely ensconced in Mexico or somewhere out of sight that would make things alot easier for her. At this point though that isn't possible. Now if Dona Maria Isabella had lived...well perhaps he could have been persuaded to be Ferdinand's Vice-Roy in Mexico City in 1820/21 with the promise that he would inherit if no male heir is born, New Spain to be his own Kingdom if there was....let him screw things up there instead of Spain.


Altogether i think M-C can survive by courting the moderates and playing the ultra Conservatives off against the Radical liberals and the threat each represents to the other...

Gradual change through the '30's and 40's and with the revolutions of '48 if she hasn't progressed enough then she can abdicate or promise to Carlos Ferdiand Felipe. Nothing like a fresh Face to take the wind out of revolutionary fervour if they are at least pragmatic enough to realize that something more is required and become at least on paper the face of change.
Remember he will be brought up in an period where his mother has had to tread a careful line between the two extremes on left and right. Ebracing the moderate conservatives and moderate liberals to tread the middle ground has always worked in most democratic institutions, and obviously he will need to relinquish some power to his legislature in the wake of the Revolutions of this period. More could evolve through the late '60's and then the '80's as needed to meet the needs of the Kingdom at that time.

If Spain has been stable then its economy should be in somewhat better shape and later revolutionary demands should be milder....there will be the matter of the overseas empire and its External relations though.

Where does anyone see this fitting. I am leaning to greater support to the Two Sicilies in the interim..but hey...Italy is not fully united but becomes a Confederation instead on the preunification German model. You would have Bourbon-Savoy dualism balanced by the interests of his Holiness the Pope.
 
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