alternatehistory.com

August 1864: As Lincoln was riding to the Soldiers' Home, a shot fired from the bushes caused his horse to bolt, and he lost his hat; when soldiers retrieved the hat, they found a bullet hole in it. The incident was hushed up, but Secretary of War Edwin Stanton augmented the heavy guard that accompanied the president.

POD: When the horse bolts, Lincoln falls off and breaks his neck, which kills him.

-Hamlin becomes President in August 1864
-Hamlin replaces Ulysses S. Grant with Joseph Hooker in August 1864
-Hooker is more cautious than Grant, and proceeds with more caution.
-The CS still loses a lot of battles, but costs to the Union are higher than OTL
-The CS settles in for the long haul and begins a war of attrition, trying to fend off the US for as long as possible
-The war drags on till November 1864
-Being unpopular due to mishandling the war, Hamlin is defeated for re-election by George McClellan
-Hamlin is in a race to defeat the Confederacy before McClellan takes over in March 1865
-Winter sets in, and the CS line stabilizes as Hooker is unable to make many gains
-McClellan takes office in March 1865

after this, one of two scenarios

1. McClellan declares an immeidate ceasefire on all fronts and begins negotiations with CS leaders

2. McClellan continues to fight the war, but badly mishandles it, and the US begins to become disillusioned and questions whether the war can be won. Possibly dragging on for another year or so, McClellan eventually gives up and declares a ceasefire.

So pick this apart please. Is it plausible?
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