Is this a plausible scenario for an Axis occupation of Britain?

I was thinking of someday writing a story set in a Nazi-occupied Britain. Obviously, Sea Lion is off of the table due to the many reasons it is thought to be impossible - let me be clear about that, I'm not talking about a Sea Lion scenario here.

I had a rough idea for a rather bleak timeline where the fascists take control of most of the world.

The Nazi's take power in Germany much as they did OTL, and the same with Franco in Spain and Mussolini in Italy. However, at some point during the 1930s, the U.S. goes fascist due to the depression in a similar scenario to It Can't Happen Here. ITTL, Hitler uses someone other than Admiral Canaris to try to persuade Franco to side with the Nazi's, and whoever is chosen succeeds.

World War 2 breaks out in a similar way to OTL, with the Nazi's occupying Poland, then rapidly taking Belgium, Holland and France, with Italian and this time Spanish assistance too. Gibraltar is occupied, and this time the BEF is largely destroyed.

Britain, with no lend lease and less international support, is in an even worse situation than OTL's 1940. This time, though, Hitler does not bother trying to win control of the air over England, but focuses his forces eastwards. The invasion of the USSR takes place at the same time, only this time the Nazi's win by 1942/43 (I'm no expert on the Eastern Front, I couldn't say when the Nazi's were most likely to win). With the U.S. a fascist dictatorship, some other agreement happens in the Pacific, and Pearl Harbor is avoided.

Britain eventually sues for peace after the defeat of the USSR. The Nazi's bide their time, whilst the fascist government in the U.S. builds up its military. Some time around 1948-1950, conflict re-ignites between the British Empire and the fascists over some crisis somewhere, or perhaps even over a mistake or miscalculation, this time with the U.S. openly siding with Nazi Germany.

Fascist America occupies Canada or at least forces it to surrender, and the Royal Navy cannot sustain conflict against Italy, Spain, a fascist United States and a Nazi Germany that rules everything from the Urals to the Pyrenees. Subsequently, a fascist invasion of Great Britain occurs some time around 1950, with the country eventually succumbing to occupation.
 

nbcman

Donor
Even if the US went right wing authoritarian (which is unlikely), why would they openly side with the Axis as opposed to trying to keep as much of a balance of power as possible? The Axis are more of threat to the US than the weakened UK. Just because a country goes right wing authoritarian doesn't mean that they have a hive mind and will follow the Germans blindly. It didn't save Yugoslavia or Greece from being attacked by the European Axis or the Nationalist Chinese from being attacked by the Imperial Japanese.
 
You might want to consider the possibility in Britain of the General Strike going sour, and the Daily Mail (of the Hurrah for the Blackshirts infamy) persuading the country to follow a greater split than OTL. A bit of arm waving, and you can set up a Bad Situation in Britain.

Obviously, British Fascism wouldn't be Fascism per se (UnFascism?), and would be very specific to the British situation (with an extensive Empire, and a fair amount of linkage between assorted spots, racism would take a different form than Aryans good, non-Aryans bad), and it certainly wouldn't fall into line with European countries (Not our sort, old boy. Not our sort at all. It might do for them, but we're rather better than that, I fancy). You wouldn't get isolationism - tricky with the Empire, but you could get something that was approaching an understanding with Germany.

Of course, that doesn't get an occupation.

Part of your problem that if the USA goes very right-wing, it's quite likely to go very isolationist. It's not going to side with anyone.

Or something.
 
Also Wouldn't a fascist US have to deal with quite a bit of internal problems once they start trampling on US democratic traditions and most US fascists were very very isolationist IIRC.
 

James G

Gone Fishin'
I was thinking of someday writing a story set in a Nazi-occupied Britain. Obviously, Sea Lion is off of the table due to the many reasons it is thought to be impossible - let me be clear about that, I'm not talking about a Sea Lion scenario here.

I had a rough idea for a rather bleak timeline where the fascists take control of most of the world.

The Nazi's take power in Germany much as they did OTL, and the same with Franco in Spain and Mussolini in Italy. However, at some point during the 1930s, the U.S. goes fascist due to the depression in a similar scenario to It Can't Happen Here. ITTL, Hitler uses someone other than Admiral Canaris to try to persuade Franco to side with the Nazi's, and whoever is chosen succeeds.

World War 2 breaks out in a similar way to OTL, with the Nazi's occupying Poland, then rapidly taking Belgium, Holland and France, with Italian and this time Spanish assistance too. Gibraltar is occupied, and this time the BEF is largely destroyed.

Britain, with no lend lease and less international support, is in an even worse situation than OTL's 1940. This time, though, Hitler does not bother trying to win control of the air over England, but focuses his forces eastwards. The invasion of the USSR takes place at the same time, only this time the Nazi's win by 1942/43 (I'm no expert on the Eastern Front, I couldn't say when the Nazi's were most likely to win). With the U.S. a fascist dictatorship, some other agreement happens in the Pacific, and Pearl Harbor is avoided.

Britain eventually sues for peace after the defeat of the USSR. The Nazi's bide their time, whilst the fascist government in the U.S. builds up its military. Some time around 1948-1950, conflict re-ignites between the British Empire and the fascists over some crisis somewhere, or perhaps even over a mistake or miscalculation, this time with the U.S. openly siding with Nazi Germany.

Fascist America occupies Canada or at least forces it to surrender, and the Royal Navy cannot sustain conflict against Italy, Spain, a fascist United States and a Nazi Germany that rules everything from the Urals to the Pyrenees. Subsequently, a fascist invasion of Great Britain occurs some time around 1950, with the country eventually succumbing to occupation.

I like it. The further back you go with a POD, the more you can stretch plausibility.
On the issue raised of American isolationism with a fascist government... who says they don't mad with Britain and go overseas just the once? Or maybe they just send their navy?
Give us a Sea Walrus!
 
IIRC, at one stage during the 'Atlantic War', the UK was ten days from running out of food and fuel. Had another convoy been mauled as severely as its predecessors, the UK would have struggled. If they then lost several more convoys, a lot of people would have gone very, very hungry. Offered 'Peace on Terms', it could have proved the thin end of the wedge leading to progressive occupation...

Brrr...
 
Fascist USA: no Tizard mission, and foreign-born nuclear scientists like Einstein and Fermi go to Britain, not the USA.
The only ones to know that nuclear bombs are possible are thus the British.

1943 to 1948-50, in peace, is more than enough time to mine the raw material, build the infrastructure, and build and test the first nuclear bomb in some remote British Empire location.
 
You might want to consider the possibility in Britain of the General Strike going sour, and the Daily Mail (of the Hurrah for the Blackshirts infamy) persuading the country to follow a greater split than OTL. A bit of arm waving, and you can set up a Bad Situation in Britain.

Obviously, British Fascism wouldn't be Fascism per se (UnFascism?), and would be very specific to the British situation (with an extensive Empire, and a fair amount of linkage between assorted spots, racism would take a different form than Aryans good, non-Aryans bad), and it certainly wouldn't fall into line with European countries (Not our sort, old boy. Not our sort at all. It might do for them, but we're rather better than that, I fancy). You wouldn't get isolationism - tricky with the Empire, but you could get something that was approaching an understanding with Germany.

Of course, that doesn't get an occupation.

Part of your problem that if the USA goes very right-wing, it's quite likely to go very isolationist. It's not going to side with anyone.

Or something.
I used something like your first part, though with a much later General Strike[1] to have Britain lurch to the authoritarian corner after the Lib-Lab coalition fell apart over responses to the economic crisis. Add in an earlier death for George V, enhance Edward VIII's nastier side, mix in the perceived threat of socialism and spice with lingering resentment about losing the Great War.
The result is forty years of unpleasantness[2]. And a radioactive crater in Llanfairfach.

But it wasn't Fascism, that's a nasty foreign word.




[1] Following the Big Slump in the thirties.
[2] Just how unpleasant would depend on how you fitted into society. Let's just say that flogging, hanging, and keeping people[3] in their proper place lasted rather longer.
[3] Especially oiks, plebs, women and darkies.
 
Fascist USA: no Tizard mission, and foreign-born nuclear scientists like Einstein and Fermi go to Britain, not the USA.
The only ones to know that nuclear bombs are possible are thus the British.

1943 to 1948-50, in peace, is more than enough time to mine the raw material, build the infrastructure, and build and test the first nuclear bomb in some remote British Empire location.
Very plausible. Unless Germany end up as the welcoming beacon of hope in a world growing dark of course.

Though I take issue with "The only ones to know that nuclear bombs are possible are thus the British". The concept was well known after late '38 and prety much everyone had a project researching it even before WW2.
 
[2] Just how unpleasant would depend on how you fitted into society. Let's just say that flogging, hanging, and keeping people[3] in their proper place lasted rather longer.
[3] Especially oiks, plebs, women and darkies.

Although not quite that simple. Moving up (and down) through Society was quite possible under the right circumstances. Jack Hobbs, a quintessential Player (and certainly no Gentleman) was greatly respected throughout Society, and even got Surrey Cricket Club to have one dressing room for both Gentlemen and Players, because the Gentlemen wanted to associate with Hobbs, Hobbs couldn't enter the Gentlemen's dressing room without an invitation, and he wouldn't accept an invitation without the other Players being invited. Now granted, Hobbs was exceptional, but there were plenty of others who crossed the boundaries in either direction.

And in certain spheres, inter-dependence was so ingrained that barriers inevitably get broken down.

And, obviously, if you've got a big enough wad, no-one cares what your origins were or how you came by it. You might be looked down as being wealthy through trade, but your children will be top drawer.

Obviously, there's considerable truth in what you say, but - as with so many things - the full situation was more complex.
 
Very plausible. Unless Germany end up as the welcoming beacon of hope in a world growing dark of course.

Maybe, but a beacon can still be without nukes.

Though I take issue with "The only ones to know that nuclear bombs are possible are thus the British". The concept was well known after late '38 and prety much everyone had a project researching it even before WW2.

"Researching" means exactly "who knows whether this will work? Let's see". And, when it comes to applications, the Germans were researching nuclear power, chiefly. That's different from producing weapons. Additionally, it's one thing for some scientists thinking in their labs that something never attempted before might well be working in practice because the theory seems right; it's another thing when top politicians start receiving writings like the Szilárd-Einstein letter or the Frisch-Peierls memo. Now in OTL, and in this ATL, the latter gave rise to the MAUD Committee in Britain, and in this ATL, the former won't be sent to a fascist US President but, again, to Churchill's scientific advisors.
 
Personally I've always liked the ASB scenario of the 1954 Greater German Reich from Anglo-American Nazi War being sent back in time to 1941.

That country actually has pretty good odds of pulling off a Sealion invasion.
 
Although not quite that simple. Moving up (and down) through Society was quite possible under the right circumstances. Jack Hobbs, a quintessential Player (and certainly no Gentleman) was greatly respected throughout Society, and even got Surrey Cricket Club to have one dressing room for both Gentlemen and Players, because the Gentlemen wanted to associate with Hobbs, Hobbs couldn't enter the Gentlemen's dressing room without an invitation, and he wouldn't accept an invitation without the other Players being invited. Now granted, Hobbs was exceptional, but there were plenty of others who crossed the boundaries in either direction.

And in certain spheres, inter-dependence was so ingrained that barriers inevitably get broken down.

And, obviously, if you've got a big enough wad, no-one cares what your origins were or how you came by it. You might be looked down as being wealthy through trade, but your children will be top drawer.

Obviously, there's considerable truth in what you say, but - as with so many things - the full situation was more complex.
Absolutely, it would be complicated. Especially for an outsider. Or a Scot...
 
Forget Spain, I think. Simply put, the country was devasted by the civil war, it's economy was a shambles. Which was one of the main reasons why Franco avoided supporting Hitler. For Spain to join in, specially in a trans-Pyrenees invasion, Germany would have to supply it with every thing, from bullets to tanks to planes, plus the assorted logistics.

After the invasion of France was over, I do see Franco becoming cousy and probably allowing the destruction/invasion of Gibraltar by german forces, but not before.
 

hipper

Banned
IIRC, at one stage during the 'Atlantic War', the UK was ten days from running out of food and fuel. Had another convoy been mauled as severely as its predecessors, the UK would have struggled. If they then lost several more convoys, a lot of people would have gone very, very hungry. Offered 'Peace on Terms', it could have proved the thin end of the wedge leading to progressive occupation...

Brrr...

This was never true. The most troubling year for shipping was 1941 and food stocks rose during that year.

From British war economy


"None of the prophesied disasters, however, came. Total imports for the year 1941 were only 30.5 million tons, of which 14.7 millions were food and 15 millions raw materials. Yet between the fall of France and Pearl Harbor food stocks rose by nearly 1½ million tons and raw materials stocks by well over 2½ million tons. Nor was war production held up by general raw material shortages.

It is clear in retrospect that minimum food requirements were considerably, and raw materials requirements wildly, overstated."
 
Top